Mapping future climate suitability for urban tourism in Szeged, Hungary

Urban environment is a key focus area for tourism activities, where local and micro-scale climatic conditions significantly influence the health, well-being, and behaviour of both tourists and residents. Climate change can alter the spatial distribution of urban areas in terms of their suitability for tourist activities. Consequently, monitoring the impact of climate system transformations on urban tourist destinations is crucial for engaging tourists and stakeholders in effective climate adaptation. However, current regional climate models lack the spatial resolution and detailed representation of local physical processes necessary to adequately capture urban-scale climatic dynamics. For meteorological variables such as air temperature, humidity, and wind speed, higher-resolution outputs derived from land surface models offer more representative and granular insights for impact assessments in urban contexts. In this study, the SURFEX land surface model is employed to assess the impacts of climate change on tourism in Szeged, Hungary. Specifically, the ALADIN-Climate regional model outputs are downscaled with SURFEX to a horizontal resolution of 1 km. Tourism climate conditions are evaluated for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 using the urban Holiday Climate Index and a modified form of the Tourism Climate Index. Future anthropogenic activities are described under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The uncertainties in the simulations are addressed through comparative analyses of the different indices, emission scenarios, and periods. The results of this study can contribute to the broader discourse on bioclimatic resilience, emphasizing the need for sustainable urban design and climate adaptation measures that mitigate adverse effects on health and well-being of tourists and residents.

Project no. 142335 has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the PD_22 funding scheme.