Assessing Climate Change Hazards in Urban and Rural Areas for European Cities Using Euro-CORDEX ensemble

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of environmental hazards, affecting urban and rural areas in distinct ways. Cities can experience amplified risks due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, altered precipitation patterns, and increased exposure to extreme weather events. Meanwhile, rural areas face vulnerabilities linked to droughts, wildfires, and agricultural losses, which can have cascading socio-economic impacts. Hazard indices serve as critical tools to quantify and compare these risks, providing insight into how different areas respond to climate stressors. 

In this study, we analyze climate extreme indices using regional climate models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble, specifically those incorporating urban representations. We focus on ten of the largest cities in Europe and their surrounding rural areas, using high-resolution (12 km) historical and RCP8.5 projections to evaluate changes in selected indices. The results are expressed in terms of global warming levels (GWLs), allowing for a consistent comparison across members.

Our findings highlight not only the presence of the UHI effect but also its amplification as global temperatures rise. The differences in climate extremes between urban and rural areas become more pronounced with increasing GWLs, underscoring the need for targeted adaptation measures. Understanding how hazard indices evolve across warming levels is crucial for developing climate-resilient policies and strategies tailored to both urban and rural settings.