More vulnerable, less resilient? Insights into the spatial-temporal dynamics of vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity from the 2019 European heatwave

Urban resilience and vulnerability are key concepts for sustainable development in our cities. While most research describes how resilience and vulnerability are linked theoretically, there is a lack of data-driven empirical studies that examine and contextualise their interdependencies in time and space. This study explores the spatio-temporal relationship between resilience and vulnerability during the 2019 European heatwave in the three largest Dutch cities: The Hague, Rotterdam and Amsterdam. Our spatio-temporal analysis reveals a nuanced and highly contextualised relationship between districts' vulnerability profiles and their resilience to heatwaves. First, we identify vulnerability profiles based on demographic, socioeconomic, and health factors. Even though the three case study cities may seem similar, we see significant differences in underlying factors determining vulnerability, confirming the need for contextualised vulnerability assessments. Second, contrary to conventional wisdom, our analysis reveals both negative (more vulnerable, less resilient) and positive (more vulnerable, more resilient) relationships between vulnerability and resilience depending on the time of the day. This finding suggests that relationships are more complex and influenced by citizens' adaptive behaviours by the underlying social and urban fabric. This research highlights the critical role of tailored, dynamic urban planning and response strategies. We argue to move towards an integrated and contextualised assessment of urban resilience and vulnerability.