Addressing future urban heat vulnerability – from climate change to daily heat stress. A case study from Constance, Germany.

To better counter the impacts of climate change in municipalities, a climate adaptation law became effective in Germany on 01 July 2024. To develop suitable adaptation strategies regarding heat stress, practitioners need information on expected future changes as well as related social vulnerabilities. However, there is a research gap regarding the understanding of urban heat transfer on a high spatiotemporal resolution, especially considering climate change. In addition, there is a lack of understanding heat-related vulnerabilities as well as the needs of residents when dealing with heat stress in order to address urban climate adaptation holistically. Following a transdisciplinary process, the project URBANLINE aims to integrate both aspects of urban heat adaptation. On the one hand, micro-scale climate modelling will provide detailed insights into local climate impacts and city hot spots of urban heat islands. On the other hand, we aim to bring the modelled results into dialogue with people’s experiences, perception and coping strategies of heat through participatory and creative methods. The study area is the medium-sized city of Constance in Southwest Germany. 

As part of the project, this research explores how advective transport of heat influences heat stress considering urban morphology on a neighborhood scale. We will investigate the effect of different adaptation measures on a high spatiotemporal resolution applying the parallelized large-eddy simulation model (PALM). The driving input will be climate projection data from the regional model REMO. In coordination with the project partners, the results will serve as a data basis for the participatory research. At the same time, gained insights from the participatory research will serve as input for designing adaptation scenarios. In this contribution we will present the project outline, first model setups and next steps.