Thermal Stress Dynamics Across Local Climate Zones: A High-Resolution Analysis of Ireland's Future Climate

Climate change is driving a global rise in temperatures. In Ireland, increasing temperatures pose a significant challenge, as residents are not naturally acclimated to extreme heat. The escalation of thermal risks is attributed to the accelerating pace of urbanization. Additionally, variations in land cover and urban environments lead to differing levels of thermal risk across regions.

This study investigates the relationship between local climate zones (LCZs) and thermal stress (measured via the Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) to inform heat risk mitigation in Ireland’s future development. High-resolution (~4 km) regional climate projections were generated by dynamically downscaling CMIP6 data using atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave regional climate models (RCMs). Outer domains (12 km for COSMO-CLM and 20 km for WRF) aligned with the Euro-CORDEX framework were nested to refine Ireland-specific projections. Data from a 30-year reference period (1981–2010) and three future 30-year periods (2021–2050, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) were used for the analysis of the Irish climate for each of the four RCP-SSP scenarios. The estimated UTCI is subsequently analysed in tandem with LCZs.

By evaluating the correlation between heat risk and LCZs, this research aims to inform climate-resilient planning and development in Ireland. The findings provide valuable insights for thermal risk mitigation strategies across different urban morphologies, particularly crucial as cities adapt to increasing thermal stress under climate change scenarios.