S4 | Urban heat, air pollution and human health in the context of early warning systems and action plans
Urban heat, air pollution and human health in the context of early warning systems and action plans
Conveners: Andreas Matzarakis, Christos Giannaros | Co-conveners: Tania Sharmin, Tzu-Ping Lin, Ales Urban, Oded Potchter, Bao-Jie He
Orals
| Wed, 09 Jul, 11:00–17:15 (CEST)|Room Penn 1
Posters
| Attendance Wed, 09 Jul, 17:15–18:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 08 Jul, 13:30–Thu, 10 Jul, 13:30|Balcony
Orals |
Wed, 11:00
Wed, 17:15
Holistic approaches are required to protect urban populations from the impact of heat and air pollution. Focusing on heat- and air-pollution-related early warning systems and action plans and their implementation at the urban scale, this session welcomes contributions related, but not limited, to: integrated methodological frameworks to (i) quantify the heat and air pollution health effects, and (ii) define city-specific warning thresholds accounting for intra-urban variations; (iii) fine-scale vulnerability assessments considering socio-economic effect modifiers; (iv) the implementation and validation of warning systems and associated action plans; (v) communication and dissemination practices. Contributions taking into account the complex interactions between heat and air pollution and their synergistic impact on human health are particularly encouraged, as well as those adopting a broader perspective in early warning and action planning within the frameworks of "One Health" and "Planetary Health".

Orals: Wed, 9 Jul, 11:00–17:15 | Room Penn 1

Chairpersons: Andreas Matzarakis, Tania Sharmin, Tzu-Ping Lin
11:00–11:15
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ICUC12-958
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Onsite presentation
Panagiotis T. Nastos, Theofanis Manthos, Marina-Panagiota P. Nastou, and Angelos Chasiotis

Human thermal sensation in urban environments significantly influences outdoor comfort and urban planning. In Mediterranean mountainous cities like Ioannina, Greece, cold winters necessitate a deeper understanding of microclimatic impacts on thermal comfort. This study assesses winter human thermal sensation using micrometeorological measurements along a specified urban route.

Air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and globe temperature measurements were conducted in January 2025 along a 6.67-kilometer route in Ioannina. The route was designed to capture diverse urban features, including open squares, narrow streets, and green spaces. Data were recorded at 2-second intervals at a height of 1.1 meters—corresponding to the gravitational center of the human body—for precise biometeorological analysis. Measurements were taken between 15:00 and 17:00 (UTC+3:00). The study estimated the human thermal indices Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), both based on human energy balance, to evaluate thermal sensation in Ioannina's green-urban environments.

The analysis revealed significant spatial variations in human thermal indices along the route, demonstrating the impact of urban microclimate on winter thermal sensation in Ioannina. Open areas with higher solar exposure exhibited higher index values, while shaded, wind-exposed streets recorded lower values. These findings highlight the importance of urban design strategies that enhance winter thermal comfort by maximizing sun exposure and providing wind protection. Additionally, local adaptation to winter conditions should be considered when planning outdoor urban spaces, as individuals generally express high satisfaction with the thermal conditions in winter. In contrast, the combination of high air temperatures, intense solar radiation, and low wind speeds leads to thermal discomfort in the summer.

Future research should incorporate subjective thermal sensation surveys to complement the objective micrometeorological data, providing a more comprehensive understanding of human thermal comfort in urban settings.

How to cite: Nastos, P. T., Manthos, T., Nastou, M.-P. P., and Chasiotis, A.: Winter human thermal sensation based on micrometeorological measurements in Ioannina City, Greece, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-958, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-958, 2025.

11:15–11:30
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ICUC12-872
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Onsite presentation
Alexandra Chudnovsky, Aya Goldshtein, Limor Shashua-Bar, Yossi Yovel, and Oded Potchter

Understanding urban heat island (UHI) effects in three dimensions remains a significant challenge due to the limited availability of high-resolution air temperature measurements at ground-based monitoring stations. This study introduces an innovative approach, utilizing urban-dwelling Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) as bio-assisted sensors to capture air temperature variations across different urban microenvironments. By equipping bats with miniature temperature loggers, we track their nocturnal flight trajectories and reconstruct fine-scale thermal landscapes in complex urban settings. Our findings reveal distinct thermal stratifications between densely built-up areas and green spaces, emphasizing the role of urban morphology in modulating near-surface atmospheric temperatures. We generated spatially varying 3D profiles of the UHI phenomenon. In addition, we assess the impact of meteorological conditions, wind patterns, and surface thermal properties on the vertical distribution of heat stress. Compared to ground-based weather stations and satellite-derived land surface temperatures (LST), bat-assisted measurements provide a unique perspective on microclimatic variability at flight altitudes ranging from tree canopies to rooftop levels. This study demonstrates the potential of biologically-assisted environmental monitoring to complement conventional urban climate research. By integrating GPS-tracked bat movement data with remote sensing and GIS analyses, we improve our understanding of spatial heat patterns and their implications for urban resilience and public health.

How to cite: Chudnovsky, A., Goldshtein, A., Shashua-Bar, L., Yovel, Y., and Potchter, O.: Using Urban Bats to Characterize 3D Thermal Landscapes in Cities, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-872, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-872, 2025.

11:30–11:45
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ICUC12-448
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Onsite presentation
Tanya Talwar and Chao Yuan

Understanding climate extremes is vital for resilience studies due to their significant short-term and long-term impacts on economic, human, ecological, and urban-physical systems. Research with climate analogues suggests that cities in tropical regions are likely to face unprecedented temperatures, necessitating preparedness for heat scenarios not yet experienced elsewhere. In this study, the changing characteristics of extreme heat events are examined for the city of Singapore. First, a range of definitions and heat-related indices are investigated for their applicability in a tropical context. Then, historical meteorological data is analyzed using a selected method based on relative thresholds. An assessment of temporal trends in key heat wave properties - namely frequency, duration, intensity, cumulative magnitude, timing, and seasonal variation - is conducted at a city-wide scale using data collected from national weather stations. Furthermore, heat stress during high-temperature periods is assessed using a network of weather stations located in high-density residential areas. Preliminary results indicate that periods of hot spells and heatwaves occur throughout the year with a higher frequency observed during the inter-monsoon season, when the wind speeds are generally lower in Singapore. Additionally, high-density urban areas experience longer periods of heat spells as compared to the suburban regions. Understanding the localized trends can help inform preparedness plans aimed at minimizing exposure among at-risk groups, particularly those with limited access to cooling solutions like air conditioning. The findings of this study contribute to the formulation of region-specific adaptation strategies to enhance heat resilience in tropical urban context.

How to cite: Talwar, T. and Yuan, C.: Assessing Extreme Urban Heat Events in Singapore: Local Characteristics, Temporal Trends and Heat Stress Implications, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-448, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-448, 2025.

11:45–12:00
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ICUC12-146
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Onsite presentation
Tzu-Ping Lin, Yi-Ling Chen, and Andreas Matzarakis

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, exacerbated by climate change, poses a growing challenge to urban living conditions in Taiwan. With its unique topography featuring steep elevation changes—from sea level to 3950 meters within just 140 km—Taiwan requires tailored definitions of urban heat island intensity (UHII) to account for its diverse geographic and climatic characteristics.

This study employs 2-km resolution Taiwan ReAnalysis Downscaling data (TReAD) from the Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform (TCCIP) to analyze temperature trends over the past decade. Using geographic information system (GIS) analysis, UHII was calculated by integrating urban climate and topographical features. Low-temperature reference points were carefully selected based on stringent criteria, including their location within a 5-km rural buffer zone, an altitude below 100 meters, and limited mountain coverage (<10%). Cities were classified into basin-type and coastal-type based on their UHII characteristics.

Findings indicate significant variations in UHII by urban typology. Basin-type cities, like Taipei and New Taipei, experience heat accumulation due to enclosed terrain, with summer daytime UHII reaching 1.6°C and nighttime rising to 3°C. Coastal-type cities, such as Tainan, are influenced by land-sea breezes, leading to dynamic UHI patterns; inland areas reach 1.7°C during the day, while coastal regions experience up to 2.5°C at night. Spatial analyses further reveal high-temperature zones concentrated in densely developed or industrial areas.

This research provides a robust framework for understanding UHI under Taiwan’s distinct conditions, offering critical insights to support urban planning and targeted climate adaptation strategies for effective UHI mitigation.

How to cite: Lin, T.-P., Chen, Y.-L., and Matzarakis, A.: Urban Heat Island Intensity and adapted policy in Taiwan, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-146, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-146, 2025.

12:00–12:15
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ICUC12-1001
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Onsite presentation
Massimo Milelli, Andrea Zonato, and Valeria Garbero

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, posing significant threats to urban environments. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Urban Dry Island (UDI) effects exacerbate these impacts by increasing local temperatures and decreasing moisture compared to surrounding rural areas. This study focuses on the metropolitan area of Turin, Italy, leveraging observational data to characterise the UHI and UDI phenomena and identify urban areas most at risk from extreme heat events.

20 years of hourly data coming from the ground network of ARPA Piemonte are analysed to map thermal and moisture patterns within the city. The analysis reveals intra-urban areas where the combination of population density, urban morphology, and temperature or moist anomalies heightens vulnerability to heat waves.

This work aims to support climate change adaptation strategies by providing essential information for risk assessment and urban planning. Identifying heat-vulnerable areas enables the design of targeted interventions, such as creating green infrastructure, urban cooling strategies, and implementing heat alert systems. The results underscore the importance of observational data in developing climate services tailored to urban environments, where localised phenomena like UHI and UDI require precise monitoring and targeted solutions.

The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners to enhance climate resilience in urban areas. The proposed approach serves as a replicable model for other cities facing similar challenges, fostering proactive adaptation to the rising hazard of extreme heat.

This research is conducted within the framework of RETURN (Multi-Risk Science for Resilient Communities under a Changing Climate) project, funded under the Italian PNRR (Piano Nazionale Ripresa e Resilienza - National Recovery and Resilience Plan), as part of the Spoke 8 DS - Science Underpinning Climate Services for Risk Mitigation and Adaptation.

How to cite: Milelli, M., Zonato, A., and Garbero, V.: Heat hazard indicators in the metropolitan area of Turin, Italy, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-1001, 2025.

12:15–12:30
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ICUC12-833
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Onsite presentation
Lida Mercado Martín, Diego Tamayo Alonso, and Miguel Ángel Padilla Marcos

Cities modify the local climate through profound changes to the natural landscape and emissions of waste heat and materials. Two of the outcomes from these changes are the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Urban Pollution Island (UPI) phenomena, which together can impact public health and well-being, especially during hot weather. Although these are outdoor urban effects they also affect the indoor environment, particular for poorly insulated building that rely on natural ventilation to manage thermal discomfort. The associated risk is greatest for those living in poor quality housing in city centres. 

The objective of this research is to assess the linkage between outdoor UHI and UPI intensity and indoor thermal and air quality conditions in residential buildings located in a socially vulnerable area. The data collection has been carried out by repeating a mobile transect based on social vulnerability indicators to analyse outdoor conditions, and fixed stations inside dwellings to measure indoor environments, including PM10, PM2.5 and temperature data. This study is being conducted in La Rondilla neighbourhood, Valladolid (Spain), during the late evening hours when the city remains warm and residents are at home, a relevant period for exposure. Preliminary results indicate significant spatial variations in the intensity of heat and air quality, and highlight the influence of outdoor conditions on indoor environments, emphasizing how building characteristics and performance could mitigate their impact. This study has relevance for urban decision-making, on public health, environmental justice and urban planning. 

How to cite: Mercado Martín, L., Tamayo Alonso, D., and Padilla Marcos, M. Á.: Assessment of Urban Heat and Pollution Island Impact on Indoor Air Quality and Thermal Conditions in Vulnerable Residential Areas, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-833, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-833, 2025.

12:30–12:45
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ICUC12-147
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Onsite presentation
Linhao Guo, Xuemei Wang, Alexander Baklanov, and Min Shao

Since 2013, stringent clean air initiatives have significantly reduced atmospheric pollutant emissions in China, improving air quality and altering the spatiotemporal patterns of pollution. Utilizing fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its chemical composition data from 2000 to 2023, we observed a reduction in the disparity of PM2.5 concentrations between urban and nonurban areas. This reduction is linked to stricter emission controls in urban areas and the relocation of some emission sources to nonurban areas. However, the specific chemical constituents of PM2.5 and the driving factors behind these changes remain to be fully elucidated. By analyzing the proportions of PM2.5 components in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou and their surrounding nonurban areas, we found that the narrowing gap in PM2.5 concentrations between urban and nonurban regions is associated with the convergence of the organic matter (OM) proportions in both areas. This convergence results from varying emission reduction strategies tailored to the distinct characteristics of urban and nonurban pollution sources in China. Coordinated governance between urban and nonurban areas should be considered, along with the implementation of integrated control and mitigation measures for multiple pollutants, while paying attention to the different impacts of climate change on urban and nonurban regions, to further improve air quality in China.

How to cite: Guo, L., Wang, X., Baklanov, A., and Shao, M.: PM2.5 Concentration Gap Reduction between Typical Urban and Nonurban China from 2000 to 2023, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-147, 2025.

12:45–13:00
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ICUC12-270
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Onsite presentation
Theodoros Economou, Daphne Parliari, Christos Giannaros, Fragkeskos Kekkou, and Anna Tzyrkalli

The adverse effects of heat and cold extremes on human health have been well-documented. It is imperative however to understand the possible synergistic effects of thermal stress and other potentially harmfull exposures such as low ambient air quality. The statistical modelling framework of Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) is a ubiquitous tool used to estimate the temporally distributed effects of thermal stress on health metrics such as mortality. 

In this work, we show how to use of Generalized Additive Models with penalised regression splines to fit DLMs in order to capture the synergistic effects of temperature extremes and other harmful factors. Implementation in the R package `mgcv' offers a practically straightforward way of training the models to health and exposure data. Synergistic effects from both continuous exposures such as air pollutants' concentrations or categorical metrics such as presence or absence of heat-waves can be incorporated via the concept of hierarchical structures.

We illustrate the approach to tackle various research challenges. Specifically, we present heat-risk and cold-risk for the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, and how the risk is modified during heat-waves and cold-waves. In addition, we demonstrate the quantification of the synergistic effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality for the city of Chicago, while exploring the option to consider different lag-periods for temperature and PM10. 

How to cite: Economou, T., Parliari, D., Giannaros, C., Kekkou, F., and Tzyrkalli, A.: A statistical approach for capturing the synergistic temporally distributed effects from environmental stressors on health outcomes, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-270, 2025.

Lunch
Chairpersons: Christos Giannaros, Ales Urban, Bao-Jie He
14:00–14:15
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ICUC12-705
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Onsite presentation
Anna Tzyrkalli, Christos Giannaros, and Theo Economou

The Mediterranean region has seen a rapid rise in the frequency, intensity, and duration of temperature extremes over the past two decades. These conditions have increased heat stress, posing serious threats to human health, particularly among vulnerable groups like the elderly. Investigating the effects of moist heat on mortality is crucial to understanding the broader impacts of climate change and improving response strategies.

This study focuses on Cyprus, a Mediterranean island, to examine the relationship between temperature, vapour pressure, and mortality. Meteorological data were obtained from the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) at high spatial (5.5 km) and hourly temporal resolution, then aggregated across the five districts of Cyprus. Daily mortality data, including deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (ICD10: I00-I99 and J00-J99), were analyzed for the period 2004–2019. Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNMs), within the Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) framework, were applied to assess the lagged effects of temperature, vapour pressure, and relative humidity on mortality rates. The results highlight significant health risks for elderly individuals (65+), revealing a strong correlation between environmental factors and mortality in this age group. The combined impact of elevated temperatures and high vapour pressure significantly increases these risks, aligning with thermo-physiological findings. The study also compares both coastal and non-coastal cities, demonstrating the pronounced influence of humidity on health outcomes. These results highlight the importance of implementing targeted interventions and integrating aging populations into early warning systems to safeguard them from climate-related health risks.

How to cite: Tzyrkalli, A., Giannaros, C., and Economou, T.: On the compound effect of humidity and temperature on mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-705, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-705, 2025.

14:15–14:30
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ICUC12-851
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Onsite presentation
Luise Weickhmann, Panagiotis Sismanidis, Jonas Kittner, and Benjamin Bechtel

Urban heat assessment and adaptation planning are critical for local governments to address the increasing challenges posed by climate change. While many plans are being developed, the integration of the latest scientific methods and tools remains limited.

SOLWEIG is an established tool for assessing radiation exposure in urban areas and has been used in numerous case studies to analyze heat vulnerability in neighborhoods and cities worldwide. Unlike other more extensive tools, that use resource-intensive calculations for atmospheric modelling, such as PALM or WRF, SOLWEIG focuses on radiation modeling and operates comparatively fast with only a few input parameters.

Within the Data2Resilience (D2R) project we explore how to integrate SOLWEIG into a near real-time (NRT) service for the city of Dortmund to approximate the current heat stress. For this purpose, SOLWEIG is decoupled from its QGIS dependencies and input parameterization is replaced with configuration files, allowing for automatic and parallel calculation of mean radiant temperature (MRT) rasters. The resulting MRT maps are then combined with recent in-situ measurements from the city’s measurement network and ICON-D2 NWPs to generate hourly maps of thermal comfort (UTCI) for a moderate-sized European city with 600K inhabitants at a 3 m resolution. While SOLWEIG is capable of a higher resolution, the chosen resolution of 3 m is a trade-off between runtime, computing power and memory capacities. The generated rasters are stored as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs and ingested into a raster database to facilitate efficient access and further use in various applications. Overall, the data pipeline relies on open data, like surface information and weather predictions, and open-source tools and is finally run in a docker container on a local server.

How to cite: Weickhmann, L., Sismanidis, P., Kittner, J., and Bechtel, B.: SOLWEIG for Near Real-Time heat assessment at city scale, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-851, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-851, 2025.

14:30–14:45
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ICUC12-599
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Onsite presentation
Makoto Nakayoshi and Kanta Susaki

Numerous thermal comfort and heat stress indices have been proposed, broadly classified into empirical indices, such as Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and the Heat Index, and indices based on human heat balance models, such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and the Standard Effective Temperature (SET*). Some of these indices are used for early warning of heat-related illnesses and assessing the health impacts of heatwaves. In Japan, a heat stroke alert system for community based on WBGT has been operational since 2021.

We will quantitatively demonstrate that while WBGT is widely used, it lacks accuracy in assessing heat stress, particularly when evaluating heat stroke risk. Furthermore, existing indices based on human heat balance models also have certain drawbacks when applied to heat stroke risk assessment; though the risk of heat stroke increases with Metabolic Equivalent of Task (METs) even in the same thermal condition, the lower values are yielded in these indices.

To address these limitations, we propose a new heat stress index that specifically considers the risk of heat stroke. Heat stroke occurs when excessive heat storage in the human body leads to an abnormal rise in core temperature. Therefore, our proposed index is designed to reflect the amount of heat stored in the body, providing a more physiologically relevant measure of heat stress. The effectiveness of this new index is evaluated and demonstrated, highlighting its potential as a more precise tool for heat stroke risk assessment.

How to cite: Nakayoshi, M. and Susaki, K.: Development of New Heat Stress Index based on Human Energy Balance for Early Warming of Heat Disorder, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-599, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-599, 2025.

14:45–15:00
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ICUC12-183
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Onsite presentation
Daphne Parliari, Theo Economou, Christos Giannaros, Andreas Matzarakis, and Dimitrios Melas
This study investigates the synergistic effects of air pollution (PM10, NO₂, O₃) and thermal conditions, based on modified Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (mPET), on human mortality in Thessaloniki, Greece, stratified by age (adults vs. seniors), season (warm vs. cold), and urban regions (North, Central-East, West). Leveraging data from 2001 to 2019, our analysis, which focuses on attributable fractions (AFs), reveals distinct patterns of vulnerability across demographic and climatic contexts. Seniors specifically, consistently exhibit higher AFs under both heat and cold stress, particularly when combined with elevated PM10 and NO₂ levels during colder periods. Seasonal disparities are evident, with ozone-related AFs being higher during warmer months, especially under elevated mPET values that correspond to strong and extreme heat stress. Regional analyses further highlight variations in risk profiles, with the Central-East urban area experiencing the most pronounced effects due to higher air pollutant concentrations and a greater number and intensity of extreme temperature events. These findings underscore the critical need for tailored early health warning systems that integrate age-specific vulnerabilities, seasonal variability, and regional/local dynamics. Our results provide actionable insights for heat-health action plans, emphasizing the importance of mitigating compounded risks from heat and air pollution to safeguard urban populations effectively.

How to cite: Parliari, D., Economou, T., Giannaros, C., Matzarakis, A., and Melas, D.: Mortality burden attributed to the synergy between human-bioclimate and air quality extremes, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-183, 2025.

15:00–15:15
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ICUC12-49
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Onsite presentation
Christos Fountoukis, Rajeswari J.R. Roshini, Azhar Siddique, Shamjad Moosakutty, and M. Rami Alfarra

As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change, there is an urgent need for proactive measures to enhance resilience and minimize impacts on lives, infrastructure, and the economy. This need is particularly critical in the hot, arid cities of the Middle East, where prolonged periods of extreme heat stress are intensified by the urban heat island effect, posing significant health risks to growing urban populations.

This work presents the ongoing development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for the State of Qatar, focusing on key climate-related risks: heat stress, air quality (including dust storms), solar radiation, and extreme precipitation. The EWS integrates real-time monitoring from a network of continuously operated weather and air quality stations with high-resolution predictive modeling (WRF-Chem). Case studies of intense dust storms, extreme heat stress days, heavy precipitation, and periods of extreme UV index will be discussed.

Additionally, the integration of our dust forecasting capabilities with the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Regional Center for the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) operated in the Gulf Cooperation Council region is underway, and the associated benefits will be highlighted.

Through collaboration with local and regional policymakers and urban planners, this system aims to address existing gaps in climate-related risk management, promote long-term resilience, and serve as a model for other arid and hyper-arid cities facing similar challenges.

How to cite: Fountoukis, C., J.R. Roshini, R., Siddique, A., Moosakutty, S., and Alfarra, M. R.: An integrated Early Warning System for air quality and weather risks in Qatar, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-49, 2025.

15:15–15:30
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ICUC12-594
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Onsite presentation
Christos Giannaros

Urban heat stress exposure varies significantly within cities. This variability and its profound implications for public health are assessed in the present work, focusing on the Athen’s complex urban basin, Greece. Employing the modified Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (mPET), strong intra-urban differences are revealed. West and Central Athens experience the most frequent and prolonged strong heat stress (SHS) exposure, leading to elevated relative risk (RR) of mortality, predominantly due to hot and dry conditions associated with compact overbuilding and scarcity of green areas. In contrast, the combination of higher elevation, increased greenery, and the cooling influence of Etesians (large-scale northerly winds during the summer) reduces SHS exposure in North Athens, thereby lowering the associated mortality RR. Coastal areas (South Athens and Piraeus) benefit from sea breeze currents, which help lower SHS exposure and related mortality RR. However, increased atmospheric moisture induced by these local-scale circulations can also exacerbate heat stress and elevate the associated mortality risks. These findings, along with insights on population-wide variability in heat stress and RR, contribute to strengthening resilience against the urban heat impact on human health. They, specifically, played a key role in shaping an advanced Heat-Health Warning System, which was operationally deployed and tested during the 2024 warm period. Furthermore, they lay the groundwork for advancing future climate heat-health impact assessments in urban agglomerations, supporting the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to evolving bioclimatic conditions. Building on this foundation, the current work also introduces a pioneering concept for exploring future human thermal bIoclimate pathways and their associated health responses in three major urban hubs in Europe. Using mPET, the concept emphasizes the incorporation of human thermoregulation principles into heat-health risk modelling, considering plausible thermo-physiological and behavioral adaptive responses to the anticipated warmer future climate.

 

Christos Giannaros acknowledges the support provided by the CLIMPACT ("Support for Enhancing the Operation of the National Network for Climate Change") project (National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation; 2023ΝA11900001—Ν. 5201588)

How to cite: Giannaros, C.: Assessing variability in urban heat stress and associated human health risks using mPET (modified Physiologically Equivalent Temperature): Implications for enhancing resilience in a changing climate, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-594, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-594, 2025.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Andreas Matzarakis, Christos Giannaros
16:00–16:15
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ICUC12-77
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Onsite presentation
Si-Yu Yu

It is quite difficult to investigate thermal comfort in hot–humid regions, and the temperature in Taiwan is expected to continue to rise in the future, while the summer period will extend from the current approximately 130 days to 155-210 days, and the winter period will decrease from the current approximately 70 days to 0-50 days. Which will lead to a critical condition for outdoor thermal comfort and heat stress risks. Case studies of several outdoor activities of different scales show that under different environmental conditions, participants of different identities will have different thermal risks and different thermal perception/behavior patterns.

It would be essential to focus on outdoor thermal comfort of events with various participants of different thermal sensation and tolerance levels. And to emphasize of providing suggestions for better heat mitigation strategies before the events. A simple visualized system has been established for identifying heat stress levels, and help organizers to adjust 1) what to avoid, and 2) where to apply more heat mitigation strategies, and to provide information to participants of different levels of heat tolerance and concerns.

Urban high temperature is not just a simple environmental phenomenon, but an important global issue involving environmental sustainability, human well-being, quality of life, and public health. For further identification of 1) the areas of higher urban heat risks, 2) the factors that affect the most, and 3) the assessment combining "built environment" and "social vulnerability" factors, the quantitative and specific classification methods had established, which make it possible to 1) clearly evaluate the thermal performance, and 2) identify the high urban heat risk characteristics.

How to cite: Yu, S.-Y.: Urban Heat Assessment for Outdoor Events, and the Impacts of "Built Environment" and "Social Vulnerability" Factors., 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-77, 2025.

16:15–16:30
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ICUC12-788
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Onsite presentation
Jochem Klompmaker, Werner Hagens, and Danny Houthuijs

Introduction: Climate change will lead to more frequent and extreme heatwaves in the coming decades. To mitigate the health impact of high temperatures, heat plans (HPs) have become widespread in Europe. Our aim was to evaluate temperature-mortality associations and estimate the temperature-related deaths in the Netherlands in the years before (2000-2009) and after (2010-2019) the first activation of the national HP. Methods: We obtained data about daily all-cause mortality (2000-2019) for the entire Dutch population, and by age, sex, neighborhood SES and urbanization. We linked daily maximum temperature based on 23 monitoring stations across the Netherlands. Time-series Poisson regression models with a distributed lag nonlinear model, adjusted for long-term and seasonal trends and day of the week, were used to assess relative risks (RR, 95% confidence intervals) in the warm months (May-September). Temperature-attributable mortality fractions for high temperature exposures  (≥28.9°C) were calculated. Results: We observed positive associations between daily maximum temperature and mortality in 2000-2009 and in 2010-2019. Associations of high temperatures (28.9°C – 95 percentile) were weaker in 2010-2019 (RR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.05, 1.09) than in 2000-2009 (RR: 1.17, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.20). The attenuation in temperature-mortality risk was strongest for the elderly, women and individuals living in low SES areas. The estimated mortality attributable fractions of high temperatures (≥28.9°C) were lower in 2010-2019 (0.72, 95%CI: 0.60, 0.84) than in 2000-2009 (1.21%, 95%CI: 1.07, 1.33). Conclusion: The impact of high temperatures on mortality attenuated in the Netherlands. This might be due to the implementation of the National HP, but other factors may have played a role as well.    

How to cite: Klompmaker, J., Hagens, W., and Houthuijs, D.: Temporal changes in the temperature-mortality association in the Netherlands and the potential impact of the implementation of the national heat plan, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-788, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-788, 2025.

16:30–16:45
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ICUC12-454
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Onsite presentation
Rajashree Kotharkar

Latest IPCC report recognises extreme heat as one of the major hazard affecting Indian cities. Heat Action Plan of Ahmadabad city in 2013 was the first attempt by the Indian cities towards heat management. Since then multiple HAPs have been made at various spatial scales, city, district and state. Most of them have copied the Ahmadabad HAP without much concern for the context, spatial or otherwise. Most of the city heat action plans are crisis oriented, stand alone documents with no emphasis on medium term and long term measures and mostly public health playing a lead role. Some of the major challenges of extreme heat management and planning in Indian cities  are -  i. Lack of context specific heat wave definition ; ii. Lack of Threshold definition and its identification; iii. Need for dynamic heat alert systems and action plans; Poor integration of research, policy and practice while formulating the heat action plans;  iv. Non- standardised approach for heat vulnerability mapping; vi. Lack of  monitoring and evaluation of HHAP; vii. Integration gaps of HHAPs with other related plans and policies;  Additionally, the heterogeneity of urban landscape of India in terms of climate, topography, economics, urban morphology, size and scale of the cities throws more challenges and requires the heat action plans to be context specific.  This study tries to identify the major challenges in heat management and planning of cities and provides a template of addressing to some of them. It provides a framework for the development of model heat action plan for Indian cities. It provides a holistic guidance to identify local planning provisions as important mechanism to reduce the impacts of extreme heat. It adopts an integrated approach to equip local government with an array of countermeasures to cope with extreme heat at local level (management and planning).

How to cite: Kotharkar, R.: Framework for model heat action plan for Indian Cities, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-454, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-454, 2025.

16:45–17:00
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ICUC12-286
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Onsite presentation
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Ales Urban, Veronika Huber, Salomé Henry, Nuria Pilar Plaza, Shouro Dasgupta, Pierre Masselot, Ben Armstrong, and Antonio Gasparrini

The abstract has been submitted on behalf of the PROCLIAS TG 3.11 and the MCC Collaborative Research Network

Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results.

We analysed daily mortality and mean temperature data from 102 locations in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Using data from national experts, we identified the year of HPP implementation and categorised their development class. A three-stage analysis was conducted: (1) quasi-Poisson time series models were used to estimate location-specific warm-season exposure-response functions in three-year subperiods; (2) mixed-effect meta-regression models with multilevel longitudinal structures were employed to quantify changes in pooled exposure-response functions due to HPP implementation, adjusted for long-term trends in heat vulnerability; and (3) the heat-related excess mortality due to HPP was calculated by comparing factual (with HPP) and counterfactual (without HPP) scenarios. Estimates are reported by country, region, and HPP class.

HPP implementation was associated with a 25.2% [95% CI: 19.8%–31.9%] reduction in excess deaths attributable to extreme heat, corresponding to 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3–2.4] avoided deaths annually per 100,000 inhabitants. This equates to an estimated 14,551 [95% CI: 10,118–19,072] total deaths avoided across all study locations following HPP implementation. No significant differences in HPP effectiveness were observed by European region or HPP class.

Our findings provide robust evidence that HPPs substantially reduce heat-related mortality across Europe, accounting for temporal changes and geographical differences in risks. These results emphasise the importance of monitoring and evaluating HPPs to enhance adaptation to a warming climate.

How to cite: Urban, A., Huber, V., Henry, S., Plaza, N. P., Dasgupta, S., Masselot, P., Armstrong, B., and Gasparrini, A.:  Do heat prevention plans reduce heat-related mortality across Europe?, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-286, 2025.

17:00–17:15
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ICUC12-41
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Onsite presentation
Andreas Matzarakis

During intense heat episodes, the human population suffers from an increased morbidity and mortality. In order to minimize such negative health impacts, the general public and the public health authorities are informed and warned by means of an advanced procedure known as a “heat health warning system” (HHWS). It is aimed at triggering interventions and at taking preventive measures. The HHWS in Germany has been in operation since 2005. In Germany, dangerous heat episodes are predicted on the basis of the numerical weather forecast. The perceived temperature as an appropriate thermal index is calculated and used to assess the levels of heat stress. The thermo-physiologically based procedure contains variable thresholds taking into account the short time acclimatization of the people. The forecast system further comprises the nocturnal indoor conditions, the specific characteristics of the elderly population, and the elevation of a region. The heat warnings are automatically generated, but they are published with possible adjustments and a compulsory confirmation by the biometeorology forecaster. Preliminary studies indicate a reduction in the heat related outcomes. In addition, the extensive duration of the strongest heat wave in summer 2018, which lasted three weeks, highlights the necessity of the HHWS to protect human health and life.

The warnings are released and disseminated by different ways including authorities, government and also public. Specific smartphone application include the warnings, such as WarnWetter-App, GesundheitsWetter-App and also the general warnings Apps for protection.

In addition the heat health warnings are included in the heat health action plans and heat protection plan as first decision factor for heat actions.

How to cite: Matzarakis, A.: Heat Health Warnings and  Heat Health Action Plans , 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-41, 2025.

Posters: Wed, 9 Jul, 17:15–18:30 | Balcony

Display time: Tue, 8 Jul, 13:30–Thu, 10 Jul, 13:30
Chairpersons: Andreas Matzarakis, Christos Giannaros, Oded Potchter
B11
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ICUC12-295
Varvara Maratkanova and Pavel Konstantinov

Biometeorological indices are one of the efficient tools for evaluation of the impact climate change might have on human health. In Northern Eurasia, datasets based on ERA5, and ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrate the opposing trends for repeatability of days with heat and cold stress,

For future climate evaluation, 3-hour data of several CMIP6 models was obtained for 1980-2009 and 2080-2100 (ssp 2.4.5, ssp 5.8.5 scenarios). Then the data was interpolated on 1⁰ latitude x 1⁰ longitude grid. Five indices were used for the evaluation of repeatability of thermal comfort conditions: Heat Index (HI), Humindex (HUM), Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) for warm season; Wind-Chill Temperature (WCT), Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) for cold.

The results indicate the increase of repeatability of heat stress days by 2100, as well as projected expansion of territory with repeatability > 80 % in summer. Changes of average repeatability between 1980-2009 and 2080-2100 generally exceed zero. Repeatability of days with cold stress decreases significantly. By 2100, repeatability of stress-free days decreases in southern regions and increases in northern. For 1980-2009, linear trend coefficients indicate the existence of two regions (of increase and decrease of repeatability), and this spatial pattern is present by 2080-2100.

Results demonstrate the climate becoming less comfortable in southern parts of the Northern Eurasia, and more comfortable in northern parts of the region. Changes in repeatability of heat and cold stress days show increase in the entirety of the region, but repeatability of stress-free days demonstrates complex patterns between different parts of Northern Eurasia.

Acknowledgements: This work has been supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation, RSF project №23-77-30008 “Seamless integrated modeling of interrelated changes in weather, climate and air quality for the sustainable development of cities and regions of the Arctic and northern Russia in the context of global change climate”.

How to cite: Maratkanova, V. and Konstantinov, P.: Northern Eurasia thermal comfort conditions: dynamic by the end of the century, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-295, 2025.

B12
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ICUC12-356
Dr Brij Bhushan, Arundhati Das, Akanksha Sharma, and Abhishek Sharma

There are multiple causes of urban climate effects in expanding and amalgamating cities in developing countries. A large number of people migrate to cities in search of employment. Because of expansive housing majority of them live in houses having poor ventilation and low sunlight mainly in slums, urbanised villages and unauthorised constructs. By the time a few thousand planned houses are built, nearly ten times unplanned structures come up. Overpopulation, traffic congestion, no trees, poor sanitation, air pollution, waste and waste water etc. affect the city's temperature badly. Many places have heat islands within heat islands. This is contrast to conditions in developed world.

                                                                    

In past fifty years the cities have expanded many folds. The people have to travel long distances in overcrowded public transport. Travelling in the cities is difficult due to traffic jams, overcrowded transport, and longer distances. About thirty years ago people used to take 10-15 minutes to reach their workplace. Now travelling time is nearly 2 hours for majority of people. In some cities like Mumbai, many people from other cities take up to 6 hours a day to reach their workplace. In cities where temperatures are touching 50 deg C the conditions are more dangerous, particularly when the people stuck in traffic jams. People commuting to work place generally move in morning and evening. School children usually come out of schools when it is extreme hot. Many use public transport and have to wait for vehicle standing in polluted hot air. Though the Government efforts are no way less to reduce carbon emissions and providing facilities, prevailing conditions will affect health of people as they face continuous stress, heat, and tiredness. The middle and low income groups, use low cost transport, are most affected and they face extra stress in living in such conditions.

How to cite: Bhushan, D. B., Das, A., Sharma, A., and Sharma, A.: Deteriorating Urban Climate and its Long Term Effects on Human Health in Developing Countries, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-356, 2025.

B13
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ICUC12-541
Loyde Vieira Abreu-Harbich and Perola Felipette Brocaneli

Peru has high risk for natural disasters due climate changes ,11th place  according to the World Risk Index 2024. Their principal effects are heavy rains and the accelerated melting of Andean glaciers that cause floods, landslides, and prolongation of droughts, affecting food security, access to water, economic development, and health. Planting trees and implementing bioswales can be a strategy for infiltrating water into the soil and promoting shade and vegetable gardening. However, the lack of water for irrigation is a challenge for growing plants and vegetables in arid climates, but it can be managed by harvest fog due to local climate conditions. This study aims to evaluate the benefits of these green areas on microclimatic benefits based on two scenarios: the current (without green areas) and the future (with green areas). Methods: a) field data information (topography, land-uses, urban form, vegetation); b) developing a future scenario based on local necessities; c) quantifying thermal comfort of current scenario and futures using Envi-met data; d) Data analysis. Results show green areas can be reduced by 3 to 5o C PET. The climate adaptation strategy of planting trees or vegetable gardens can provide shade on sidewalks, reduce thermal surfaces, and control wind direction to maximize green benefits. In addition, it can ensure food security and human health. This work is part of the predictive analysis of the impact of implementing traditional and innovative crop mist in Peru, focusing on the development of sustainable communities. This work is funded by Mackpesquisa, n. 251018.

How to cite: Abreu-Harbich, L. V. and Brocaneli, P. F.: Greening as strategies to reduce heat stress: Case of Portada de Manchay II, Peru, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-541, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-541, 2025.

B15
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ICUC12-926
Kobe Vandelanotte, Bram DuMoulin, Siebe Puynen, Thomas Vergauwen, Sara Top, and Steven Caluwaerts

Extreme heat events pose significant health risks to individuals engaging in prolonged outdoor activities, particularly endurance events such as the Dodentocht, a 100 km walking challenge through a suburban area in Belgium. In 2022, the event was shortened during a heat wave based on a predefined air temperature threshold. However, air temperature alone does not fully capture the complexity of human heat stress, as other environmental factors, such as humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, significantly influence thermal comfort and risk. 

To improve understanding of actual heat stress exposure, we conducted a measurement campaign during the 2024 Dodentocht. Several participants were equipped with meteorological backpacks that recorded air temperature, relative humidity, and black globe temperature along the route. These measurements enabled the calculation of meteorological outdoor thermal comfort using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which is a widely applied heat stress indicator. 

The measurement campaign allows us to validate outdoor thermal comfort predictions generated by a sub-kilometric weather forecast. A heat stress forecast along specific routes would namely offer a valuable tool for event organizers, urban planners, and public health officials to inform the public, optimize route planning and implement heat mitigation strategies. The experimental setup, preliminary validation results, and potential applications of these mobile observations will be presented.  

How to cite: Vandelanotte, K., DuMoulin, B., Puynen, S., Vergauwen, T., Top, S., and Caluwaerts, S.: Too hot to race? Towards Heat Stress Adaptation Tools for Endurance Events, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-926, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-926, 2025.

B16
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ICUC12-263
Svenja Ludwig, Ferdinand Briegel, and Andreas Christen

Urban heat stress is an escalating challenge as climate change amplifies the frequency and intensity of heat waves worldwide. This requires appropriate actions at the local-scale, including early warning systems to prepare locally for heat actions and improve societal resilience in cities. However, existing heat warning systems often lack sufficient spatial resolution to account for the significant urban-rural and intraurban variabilities, explained in particular by delayed night-time cooling and daytime overheating of impervious open areas. This study proposes a framework for defining neighborhood-scale heat warning criteria, leveraging threshold exceedances of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from high-resolution geospatial and model data.

Our work utilizes outputs from the Human Thermal Comfort Neural Network (HTC-NN), a machine-learning-based emulator of numerical urban climate models. The HTC-NN allows for rapid predictions of key atmospheric variables which are synthesized to calculate pedestrian-level UTCI values at high spatial (1 x 1 m) and temporal resolution (1 hr) based on regional-scale weather forecasts.

In this study, HTC-NN predictions for summer 2023 were run for Freiburg, Germany forced with ERA5 Land data. We aggregate 1 x 1 m predictions of UTCI to 500 x 500 m heat distribution statistics and calculate exceedance fractions of relevant UTCI heat stress classes at the neighbourhood scale. A spatio-temporal analysis is conducted separately for night and day to investigate the relationship between exceedance fractions, meteorological conditions, and land cover fractions exploring potential neighbourhood heat warning criteria and thresholds. Results reveal pronounced intra-urban variability and strong diurnal variations of exceedance fractions, emphasizing the interplay of urban form, shading effects, and surface properties. These findings highlight the need to differentiate between urban and rural areas and also between different urban environments in terms of heat stress warnings.

How to cite: Ludwig, S., Briegel, F., and Christen, A.: Exploring Urban Neighborhood-Scale Heat Warning Criteria Based on Temporal and Spatial Threshold Exceedances , 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-263, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-263, 2025.

B17
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ICUC12-371
Minttu Havu, Léa Corneille, Tim Nagel, Valéry Masson, Mathilde Pascal, Jean Wurtz, and Aude Lemonsu

The intensity and spatial extent of urban heat island fluctuates nightly, resulting in variable heat exposure across neighbourhoods. During heatwaves, this variability can significantly affect the degree of temperature exposure experienced by different communities. To accurately evaluate the health impacts of heatwaves, it is essential to account for both the spatial distribution of heat exposure and the socioeconomic factors influencing vulnerability.

The French heat warning system relies on alert thresholds being exceeded at a reference weather station in each department (administrative division). This applies to the eight departments in the Paris region, with contrasts in the representativeness of the station in terms of the exposure conditions for the 12.3 million inhabitants (depending on department size and variability of the surface properties). In particular, the city of Paris uses a reference station located in a park, which may not adequately reflect the detailed spatial variability of urban heat exposure. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as AROME-France at 1.3 km resolution, represent the current operational status for weather forecasting and have potential as early warning tools for heatwaves, not only at the regional scale but also at the neighbourhood level.

In this study, we compare AROME-France with two higher-resolution models: AROME-500m, which includes enhanced urban representation, and Meso-NH, a research model with 300 m resolution and the most detailed urban parameterisation. By analysing the summers of 2022 and 2023 in the Paris region, we investigate whether numerical models with different levels of detail better reflect population heat exposure than sparse observations. These findings would highlight both the limitations and the potential of current models for further improving heatwave risk assessments.

How to cite: Havu, M., Corneille, L., Nagel, T., Masson, V., Pascal, M., Wurtz, J., and Lemonsu, A.: High-resolution forecasting models for predicting and capturing heat exposure contrasts in the Paris region, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-371, 2025.

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