Implementing a transdisciplinary approach for the strategic assessment of different scenarios for the emerging deep-sea mining industry and the protection of deep-sea ecosystems

As commercial interest in deep-sea minerals grows, decisions by governments on whether to allow deep-sea mining (DSM) will have long-lasting consequences for the global ocean. Grasping the potential implications of DSM is complex due to the wide range of issues and knowledge gaps spanning natural and social sciences. In this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL) factors that could influence the initiation of commercial DSM exploitation or the adoption of a moratorium on DSM. To this end, we propose a transdisciplinary approach combining a literature survey and a stakeholder consultation aimed at integrating expert knowledge (science, industry, NGOs, policy-makers) into the PESTEL analysis, setting the scene for an in-depth exploration of opportunities and risks associated with different scenarios regarding the future of the DSM industry and trade-offs involved. We highlight issues of interest to stakeholders that are not yet well developed in the academic literature as well as differences in perception across stakeholder groups. We conclude by a discussion of the implication of our results for problem framing in transdisciplinary science needed to inform a societal debate on DSM.