Ensemble weather routing solutions towards safety and decarbonisation of maritime transport

Approximately 90% of trade occurs through maritime shipping, which is responsible for 3% of total global greenhouse gas emissions [1]. Reducing the carbon footprint of maritime industry is therefore crucial to combat climate change and achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Our research explores the use of ensemble weather forecasts to enhance route planning, with an emphasis on optimizing fuel efficiency and improving safety at sea by avoiding hazardous weather conditions. 

Ensemble models combine multiple weather forecast scenarios to account for the inherent uncertainty in individual deterministic model predictions. Integrating probabilistic forecasts into voyage planning reduces the risk of encountering unexpected severe weather conditions—such as strong winds, thunderstorms, and rough seas—which would otherwise increase fuel consumption, delay schedules, and elevate the risk of accidents, container loss, and spillage. This approach facilitates the early detection of hazardous weather, allowing us to deliver timely and probability-based alerts. This work aligns with the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) “Early Warnings for All” initiative, which seeks to provide precise alerts for high-impact weather events. 

Based on numerous case studies across different maritime routes and environmental contexts, our ensemble-based routing solution demonstrated consistent reductions in both fuel consumption and voyage time by at least 3-10%, which is substantial given the scale of the maritime industry. By helping vessels avoid regions with adverse or dangerous weather, this method lowers fuel usage and minimizes accident risk, supporting both environmental and operational goals. This operational efficiency provides an incentive for mariners to adopt more sustainable solutions, which are relatively easy to implement in their daily operations. 

Our findings underscore the efficacy of probability-based voyage planning as a scientifically robust tool for maritime route optimization. By incorporating accurate, uncertainty-aware weather alerts into real-time maritime operations, this approach not only contributes to emissions reduction and cost savings, but also minimizes the risk of environmentally damaging incidents, making it a key strategy to facilitate the industry’s transition towards a more sustainable future.  

[1] Arslan, O., E. Besikci, and A. Olcer. "Improving energy efficiency of ships through optimisation of ship operations." No. FY2014-3 IAMU (2014).