Unraveling 25 Years of Flood Governance in the Scheldt Estuary: A Comparative Study Through an Evolutionary Governance Lens

Flood risk management and land use governance have become critical areas of study within environmental governance, particularly in low-lying coastal regions that are both highly urbanized and vulnerable to hydrological extremes. In riverine and estuarine systems, the interplay between water management, spatial planning, and the environment has significant implications. Historically, floods have played a central role in shaping delta landscapes; structural interventions like dikes and land reclamation enabled living conditions in flood-prone areas such as the Netherlands and parts of Flanders. While water infrastructure has contributed greatly to societal welfare, it has also encountered criticism due to its economic, social, and environmental impacts. Especially in response to growing ecological concerns, water management underwent a paradigm shift, marked by an “ecological turn” that began in the mid-20th century. This shift redefined nature as an intrinsically valuable component, highlighting the ecological debts incurred by prior civil engineering efforts. This environmental awareness, however, primarily influenced political and cultural attitudes, while the technical aspects of water management, especially hard engineering solutions, remained largely unquestioned until recently. The ecological awareness owned however the merit of prompting the use of nature-based solutions to achieve water safety while promoting ecological values and enhancing socio-economic functions. Yet, despite the growing advocacy for NBS, their integration into traditional hydraulic engineering systems has remained a challenge.

By adopting an evolutionary governance perspective, this research provides a comparative account of the evolution of flood governance over the past 25 years in the Scheldt estuary. The influence of institutional, material, discursive, goal, path dependencies, and interdependencies on flood risk governance and their implications for flood safety and nature conservation in the estuary is unraveled. This study places significant emphasis on the science-policy interface by exploring how scientific insights have been embedded within governance processes and decision-making. Institutional dependencies are assessed through formal and informal regulatory frameworks, while material dependencies cover natural and human development patterns that can impact policy effectiveness. Discursive dependencies are crucial, as they highlight the role of framing, semantics, and narrative in promoting the adoption of science-based policies. Goal dependencies are examined to understand how evolving governance objectives integrate scientific evidence, while path dependencies reveal how past decisions constrain or enable current policy shifts. Finally, interdependencies map the interconnectedness among governance actors, emphasizing collaborative pathways for science-informed policy implementation.

By taking a longitudinal and comparative approach, this research not only maps the distinct trajectories of flood governance in both regions in the Scheldt Estuary; the research findings also demonstrate the necessity for cross-border cooperation and underscores the critical need for science to consistently inform policy and decision-making to mitigate future hazards. A well-functioning science-policy interface helps bridge the gap between research and real-world application, promoting policies that are more effective, transparent, and aligned with long-term societal and environmental goals. This is particularly important when it comes to increasing flood hazards where timely and evidence-based decision-making is essential. This contribution enriches the academic and societal conversation on adaptive governance in the face of the escalating challenges posed by climate change.