The (hidden) Western Indian Ocean Climate Crisis — A need for urgent action

This presentation is a call for regional and international action. It focuses on a climate-driven situation in Africa that will evolve into a humanitarian crisis if little is done. Much of the Africa population is on the eastern side of the continent. Here some 60 M people live on the shoreline of the western Indian Ocean (WIO). These communities are highly dependent on the ocean for their food security, livelihoods and culture. The bulk of the WIO countries are considered the poorest of the poor and the least developed globally. The main food source comes from artisanal fisheries. Gears and fishing techniques are simple comprising canoes, fishing lines and nets. Nearly all fisheries in WIO are in decline from overfishing.

Added to this, significant scientific observations and data indicate WIO is warming, being one of the fastest developing hotspots in the global ocean. This knowledge has come from some 10 years of focused research producing 100s of publications using state-of-the-art techniques including ship surveys, marine robotics, satellites and models — as well as on the ground coastal community observations. Startling outputs indicate the tropical region of WIO will warm some 5°C by 2100 and suffer declines in biodiversity richness and fisheries of up to 70%. Moreover, marine heat waves are set to dominate almost 12 months of the year by 2035, and consequently, coral reefs that support artisanal fisheries, will be decimated. Together with the rapidly expanding human populations of 3% per annum and decline in ecosystems and fisheries — WIO faces a daunting challenge for coastal community survival.

Our new science is now focused on producing a more accurate climate-driven ‘road map’ of the future of WIO — the ocean, ecosystems, fisheries and impacts on people (food security) — using the latest computer technologies and models. These highlight tipping points that serve as vital targets for action.

But according to our first generation of models, the first big tipping point is soon (2035). Whilst we still need to pursue excellent science to produce the WIO climate road map, we also need to urgently begin thinking of mitigation strategies. We have enough understanding to respond. We clearly must work with conventional frameworks for action, i.e. get the WIO climate crisis on national and UN agendas. However, we also need to recognise that this framework is slow and cumbersome to respond. Because of the urgency of the WIO climate crisis — we suggest the assistance of a faster parallel-coupled framework. Motivated by the recently released statement from Ban Ki-moon "We need an urgent change of direction in global decision-making, with a bold new approach rooted in justice and dignity. We need ‘long-view leadership", we suggest this parallel-coupled approach includes: (1) scientists actively driving the regional and international agenda, (2) a fresh dynamic Science-to-Policy mediator such as IPOS (International Panel for Ocean Sustainability) to intervene, (3) our project organizes two UN-AU Summits on the WIO climate crisis, and (4) we work on the ground with communities to find solutions and mitigations.