Innovative Strategic Foresight analysis for Land-Sea Management: the Valencian Community case study

Climate change and environmental issues are challenging society under several aspects, including spatial planning and governance. In this context, innovative methodologies and tools are emerging as necessary to explore future scenarios, anticipate uncertainties, and support decisions. Particularly at the Land-Sea Interface (LSI), where multiple ecosystems meet and interact, appropriate methodologies are crucial for addressing these complexities.

In this regard, Strategic Foresight Analysis has emerged as a proactive approach to address complex challenges due to its ability to help organizations anticipate and prepare for future issues and opportunities. This study, firstly, explore through a deep literature review the potentials and limitations of Strategic Foresight Analysis for the LSI management; secondly, show an application of this methodology to the Valencian Community, an area particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

From the literature review some main advantages of Strategic Foresight Analysis in LSI management emerged. This include its interdisciplinarity and its capacity to facilitate transdisciplinary collaborative exercises. However, there are significant gaps in the applications of this methodology to LSI management, such as the limited use of multiple foresight tools, the complexities related to stakeholder engagement, and the scarcity of science-based approaches, which impacts the global understanding of land-sea dynamics.

The methodological approach applied for the Valencian LSI tries to overcome the identified gaps. On one side, multiple foresight tools (i.e., horizon scanning, megatrend analysis, and scenario planning) are integrated, and on the other side, robust and innovative science-based approaches (i.e., megatrend analysis based on Copernicus climate data, and scenarios based on cumulative impact assessment computed with the help of Generative AI) are implemented. Moreover, stakeholder and expert involvement in the area played a central role, through a questionnaire, an interview, and a workshop, ensuring that the adopted methodologies were aligned with local priorities and challenges.

The results of this Strategic Foresight application include a focus on the region's coastal wetlands, interesting hotspots for the multiple interactions between pressures and natural resources they present. Concerning the megatrend analysis, the results indicate an increase in the median scores of all the climate hazards identified, particularly sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and storm surges. These pressures are most marked in the southern wetlands and in the coast of the Albufera of Valencia. Finally, the results of the scenarios indicate an intensification of cumulative impacts across the different RCPs considered (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and time horizons (2050 and 2100).

These findings provide a solid foundation for further research and the development of sustainable, adaptive strategies tailored to the specific climate change scenarios and socio-economic needs of these vulnerable coastal regions.