Marine co-existence between offshore wind and fisheries: insights from fish stock modelling

The future of the blue economy will be shaped by humanity’s urgent need for sustainable energy and food, requiring large-scale solutions to meet these challenges. Technological innovations, such as offshore wind energy, are driving ambitious targets, particularly in the North sea, one of Europe’s busiest sea basins. This region is a hub for energy infrastructure, extensive shipping, and fisheries.  However, as energy needs and food demand grow, competition for space in marine environments intensifies, creating uncertainty for both industries and ecosystems. Climate change further complicates these dynamics, with changing water temperatures causing stress to marine habitats, and potential shifts in species ranges. In response to these challenges, the MARine CO-existence (MARCO) scenario-building research project aims to develop tools for strategic planning and marine spatial management. MARCO combines spatial analysis (GIS) and system dynamics to assess temporal changes, providing a transparent framework for stakeholder dialogues and decision-making. This paper outlines the development and application of the fish stock submodel within the MARCO framework, focusing on four ecologically and economically significant species in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Barents Sea. The model evaluates the impacts of fisheries, offshore wind expansion, and climate change on fish populations, with forecasts extending to 2050. Results indicate that while climate change impacts on fish stocks are not expected to be significant until 2050, the cumulative effects of different industries highlight the need for data-driven fisheries management and protection of critical marine areas, including spawning grounds. The model also demonstrates the potential displacement of fisheries and shifts in fishing effort due to the upscaling of offshore wind projects. Finally, it offers valuable insights for balancing industrial development with environmental conservation, supporting food security and sustainable marine resource management in an increasingly crowded and changing ocean.