Navigating Conflicts and Cumulative Impacts: Assessing Offshore Oil and Gas Expansion in South Africa's Marine Environment

Over the last 50 years, new ocean economies have emerged and rapidly expanded, driven by declining land-based resources. This has resulted in a complex ocean landscape where diverse and often competing interests intersect among ocean sectors. In particular, offshore oil and gas is an expanding ocean sector that has grown rapidly, sparking considerable opposition due to its potential impacts on other ocean sectors and significant uncertainties regarding its environmental effects. In South Africa, these conflicts are especially pronounced, as the oil and gas industry has expanded despite limited understanding of its impacts on the marine ecosystem. This expansion has faced strong resistance from coastal communities, indigenous groups, and fishers who are concerned about environmental consequences and impacts on other ocean sectors.

This study aims to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the impacts of offshore petroleum extraction on both the marine environment and other critical ocean sectors in South Africa. To understand these impacts in a high-uncertainty, data-poor context, this study employs Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling, a graphical approach that integrates empirical data with expert knowledge. This model enables the evaluation of trade-offs among ocean sectors and serves as a tool for scenario planning related to oil and gas expansion. Additionally, qualitative data from expert interviews will be used to identify key "lock-in" effects— structural or institutional barriers that may prevent pathways towards sustainable blue economy agendas.

By addressing a critical research gap, this study seeks to highlight implications of expanding oil and gas activities on the marine environment, with an emphasis on understanding how oil and gas interacts with other ocean sectors to produce cumulative environmental impacts. This research offers essential socio-ecological insights for future scenario planning and sustainable management in light of expanding blue economies.