Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical marine fisheries substantially contribute to societal well-being, particularly in coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security, livelihoods and economic development. However, tropical capture fisheries are increasingly vulnerable to several climate change impacts, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of fish stocks and consequently, fisheries production. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-adaptive fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries, using the province of Palawan as a case study. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans, and highlighting what can be done to support sustainability, rather than focussing only on what will be lost.