Adaptation and resilience of small-scale fisheries to climate change involves institutional changes

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving an accumulation of heat in the oceans, resulting in a warming trend that disrupts marine ecosystems and economies reliant on marine resources. These changes already have profound implications for human systems, prompting various adaptive responses. However, how communities are responding, as well as the factors driving these responses, remain largely unexplored. Therefore, the aim of this study is to empirically test how adaptation and transformation responses are shaped by climate change impacts and the social characteristics of the different communities, exploring the relative importance of each of these adaptation co-founding factors.

To do this, we look at small-scale fisheries (SSF) as social-ecological systems (SES), and assess how these communities adapt to climate change based on the severity of impacts and their adaptive capacities. We develop three in-depth case studies to explore which responses allow equitable and sustainable fishing livelihoods under climate change in Nayarit (Mexico), Galicia (Spain), and Shikoku (Japan). These regions greatly differ in the intensity of impacts and in their social and governance settings. Across these regions, we test an adaptation pathway framework to understand how social resilience varies, applying a set of adaptive capacity indicators to analyze responses to climate change. For this, we categorized these responses along a continuum, from "remaining" (non-active adaptation) to "coping" (e.g., reducing fishing expenses or altering fishing locations), "adapting" (e.g., targeting new species or using new technologies), and "transforming" (e.g., adopting alternative livelihoods, migrating, or leaving fisheries) as climate impacts intensify (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Adaptation responses of small-scale fisheries along a gradient of increasing climate change impact intensity, progressing from "remaining" (no active adaptation) to "coping," "adapting," and finally "transforming." Adapted from Fedele et al. (2019) and Ojea et al. (2020).

We found that fishers generally progress along the adaptation pathway as impact increases. However, this pattern varies by region due to the interaction of environmental, economic, and social factors. First, although warming and species redistribution are global trends, the precise effects and available response options differ locally. Second, fishers’ access to essential assets for adaptation (such as technology or financial resources) strongly influences their ability to adopt new strategies, including targeting different species. Third, adaptive capacities and responses are intricately linked to the SSF organization and management structures. In some cases, these systems exacerbate existing power imbalances, potentially creating "social-ecological traps" where fishers are restricted from adopting sustainable adaptation practices. The established management structures may even hinder resilience and contribute to unsustainable practices, placing additional stress on fishing communities and marine ecosystems.

These findings underscore the need for adaptation strategies that integrate social determinants and therefore become more just, particularly by fostering equitable access to adaptive resources and strengthening social capacity. Such adaptations may challenge existing governance structures and fisheries regulatory regimes. However, transformational efforts are needed as effective adaptation planning for SSF can help ensure their sustainability and the well-being of coastal communities, the production of sustainable seafood and to support resilience in an uncertain climate future.