A Three-Dimensional Framework for Climate-Resilient Marine Conservation in China’s Seas

Protecting marine biodiversity amidst climate change requires advanced planning that addresses the three-dimensional complexity of marine ecosystems. Existing conservation efforts in China lack sufficient depth-specific planning to safeguard vulnerable species habitats across the water column. In response, we developed a three-dimensional marine planning framework using data for 8,452 marine species, integrating climate models to project species distributions and assess vulnerability under three CO₂ scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) by 2100. Results indicate substantial habitat loss and poleward shifts, with over 50% of current habitats potentially unsuitable under high-emission scenarios. This study identifies new, low-regret conservation priorities encompassing 15.6% of China’s adjacent seas, targeting areas with high vulnerability, such as the West and East seas of Liaodong Peninsula and seas around Hainan and Taiwan Islands. Our findings offer a crucial foundation for a depth-inclusive MPA network, promoting resilience in marine conservation under a warming ocean.