Fostering Climate-Resilient Biodiversity and Fisheries in Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Protected Areas

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of marine species, impacting local biodiversity patterns. These changes are causing a mismatch between spatial conservation strategies, such as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), and the distribution of species and ecosystems that they aim to protect. In 2004, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama established the Tropical Eastern Pacific Marine Conservation Corridor (CMAR) to protect the migratory corridors of large pelagic species such as sharks, rays, turtles, and marine mammals. While the effects of global warming on the oceans and the expansion of oxygen minimum zones are identified as critical issues, they are not explicitly considered in the management plans for CMAR MPAs. Giving that many MPAs in CEMAR are in the process of updating their management plan, this project assesses the impacts of climate change on these MPAs to inform such process. Specifically, we aim to identify possible adaptation and management strategies to enhance the climate resilience of biodiversity and fisheries in the region. Spatially-explicit integrated climate-fish-fisheries models are used to project the impacts of climate change, fisheries management and marine protection on the biogeography, biomass and potential catches of important marine species in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) region. Specifically, we use these models to examine the outcomes of four different future scenarios informed by professionals in the field from various countries and institutions within CMAR. These future scenarios allow us to compare results of (1) prioritizing conservation, (2) prioritizing resource extraction, (3) prioritizing both, (4) prioritizing neither, and compare to the results under the status quo. Our results show that biomass and potential catches in the ETP region, and the effectiveness of MPAs within CMAR in supporting biodiversity conservation and seafood production, are strongly impacted by the level of climate change. Thus, sustainable fishing practices and changes in fishery production in the ETP region while adapting the management and conservation plan for MPAs in the CMAR to climate-induced shifts in species distribution are crucial in MPA management plans in order to achieve the previously established conservation objectives. Improving the understanding of climate change impacts on marine biodiversity can enhance the effectiveness of conservation and fishery management plans in building climate resilience of ecosystems in the region.