Unfolding and exploring uncertainties for possible and desired futures offshore through co-created scenarios for the development of offshore wind farms

The last decades of research have produced increasing evidence on the multi-level impacts of the current and future large scale OWF infrastructure planned in the North Sea basin, as an attempt to lower GHG emissions and reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. Most scientific knowledge produced is focused on various ecological effects on the marine habitats, with a smaller body of literature also drawing attention to socio-economic effects on various marine space users (in particular fisheries).

However, while scientific knowlede on potential risks and synergies advances, there are still high uncertainties with regards to the potential and desired futures of the North Sea, often used as argument for political inaction. Such uncertainties are due to unknown effects from global, regional, and local factors, that range from climate change’s impacts on the marine environment, consequences of geo-political events, economic and technological trends, consumer patterns shifts and much more.

This study aims at unfolding those uncertainties and exploring desired, potential and possible alternatives for the development of offshore activities in the North Sea basin, in the context of a nature, energy and food transition.

The potential scenario narratives are first considering potential cause-effect chains derived from the influence of global factors, through the lens of selected IPCC SSP scenarios, integrating scientific evidence (projections, modeling results of RCP scenarios) into a coherent scenario storyline. Second, the desired and possible narratives are derived from the local socio-ecological context, through mapping stakeholder expectations, perspectives and desires, in a number of workshops and interviews with local stakeholders. Third, each scenario narrative further informs a spatial representation of the distribution of offshore activities, using GIS data from open source repositories as well as data from related modeling efforts (e.g. species distribution). Results are used to qualify and quantify trade-offs between various alternatives, emphasizing gains and looses when certain policy and management options are considered.

An inclusive and transparent analysis of potential trade-offs between alternative space allocation options in the marine space will assist the strategic decision-making process for balancing offshore wind with other interests, within the boundaries of the North Sea ecosystem.