Assessing Blue Growth in the UK North Sea: expert modelling of how offshore wind development affects a complex social-ecological system

This paper considers the UK North Sea as a complex social-ecological system whose component parts interact in dynamic, non-linear and multi-scalar ways to produce unexpected emergent phenomena. Effects of the continued and projected expansion of the offshore wind industry within this system are not well understood, yet potentially challenge existing forms of marine governance. We report on a project that used Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to pool knowledge from focus groups and interviews with Marine Experts; and that assessed, weighted and combined perceived relationships between different entities of the UK North Sea System into an aggregated map. We show how the map can be used as a semi-quantitative model, predicting potential emergent effects for the expansion of offshore wind. We further show how the most complex relationships can be interrogated further via a social-ecological action situations framework drawn from work on complex social-ecological systems. The paper shows how a whole-system perspective can help illuminate the realities of Blue Growth in ocean systems; revealing the viability of matching continued marine development with environmental protection and social justice commitments.