Integrating PESTEL and Theory of Change for scalable Marine Ecosystem Restoration and Governance

Achieving sustainable and resilient marine ecosystem restoration requires frameworks that account for both the planned pathway to impact and external influences that shape project success. PESTEL analysis (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) has been piloted in EU projects, such as FutureMARES and ACTNOW, to assess these factors systematically. Building on these applications, the BlueMissionAA project integrates PESTEL with a Theory of Change (ToC) framework to align restoration deliverables and inform governance proposals in the Atlantic and Arctic Lighthouse areas.

Our approach uses PESTEL to evaluate external factors across each stage of ToC, from project inputs to long-term impacts, breaking traditional boundaries to provide a holistic pathway for restoration governance. Political and Economic factors shape the feasibility and scalability of restoration activities, while Social engagement and Technological advancements influence local acceptance and monitoring capacity. Environmental conditions, especially climate impacts, necessitate adaptive management strategies. Legal frameworks, such as the recent EU Nature Restoration Law, exemplify how regulatory shifts can transform barriers into enablers, triggering positive downstream effects across other PESTEL dimensions. By using ToC as a structured pathway, PESTEL insights inform proactive adjustments, ensuring that each deliverable aligns with the project’s intended outcomes and is resilient to shifting external conditions.

The integration of PESTEL and ToC not only tracks interconnected influences on restoration but also, highlights key opportunities and hindrances, and provides a pathway for translating these insights into actionable investments and governance proposals. This approach enhances the monitoring of ecological impacts, strengthens alignment with EU policy goals, and fosters adaptive, data-driven decision-making among stakeholders. The combined PESTEL-ToC framework is designed to be adaptable across diverse geographical and political contexts, making it scalable for applications from local marine protected areas to international ecosystem governance. By being flexible and scalable, the framework aligns with the UN Decade of Ocean Science’s goal to provide adaptable solutions for diverse marine challenges, ensuring it meets the varied needs of UNOC3 stakeholders.