Shifting Tides: Analyzing Fisheries Conflict and Geopolitical Dynamics in the Western Pacific (1974-2023)

Around the globe, conflicts over fisheries threaten maritime safety, broader geopolitical tensions, and food security. Fishery conflicts occur when a fisheries resource is contested by two or more actors at a discrete time and place. While the frequency of such disputes has been increasing since the 1970s, our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of fisheries conflict remains limited. Alongside regions like the Arctic and South China Sea, the Western Pacific Ocean has emerged as a potential hot spot for future conflicts due to its extensive fisheries and diverse political actors. Maintaining the safety and equity of ocean-based food systems is particularly important for the Western Pacific where fisheries provide nutritional, economic, and cultural value. Here, we analyze fisheries conflict from 1974 to 2023 to investigate changes in where conflicts transpire, which actors are involved, and conflict intensity. By combining recently sourced data from a World Wildlife Fund partnership with the International Fishery Conflict Database, this study utilizes a larger dataset for analysis than previously available for the region. Our findings reveal changes in how and where nations are participating in conflicts in the Western Pacific Ocean, helping to identify gaps and opportunities in current fisheries management policies and practices that may be contributing to the issue.