Blue Economy in the face of Climate Change: Insights from resource availability projections

The Blue Economy aims to foster socially equitable, environmentally sustainable, and economically viable ocean resources, ensuring that conservation efforts harmonize with long-term economic growth. However, climate change significantly impacts the availability and management of these resources by altering ecosystems and habitats, affecting ocean water quality, biodiversity, and key factors such as temperature, sea level rise, and changes in wind and current patterns. In this study, we integrate state-of-the-art global datasets to project the future distribution of resources required for fisheries, aquaculture, blue carbon, bioprospecting, ecotourism, and offshore wind energy sectors. Our results show a projected negative balance within the tropics for most of these sectors. Notably, significant declines are expected closer to coastal areas, where marginalized coastal communities—particularly in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs)—are most vulnerable, exacerbating the ongoing challenges these states are already facing. We stress that considering the impacts of climate change on these sectors is crucial for developing realistic scenarios and informing effective policy responses. Climate adaptation and resource management strategies must prioritize the needs of these coastal communities, promote their active participation and leadership, and ensure they benefit from innovations in renewable energy, aquaculture, and other ocean-based resources. Likewise, technological advancements, international cooperation, and community engagement are essential for building adaptive capacities and fostering inclusive economic opportunities for marginalized groups. Finally, we highlight that adopting these measures is critical for fostering an equity-focused approach to resilience in ocean-dependent economies and sustaining marine resources amid changing climatic conditions.