Plinius Conference Abstracts
Vol. 17, Plinius17-57, 2022
17th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Atmospheric Precursor of fire hazard: development of a fire-sentinel index for risk management in Abruzzo Region (Central Italy).

Annalina Lombardi1, Gabriele Pizzi2, Valentina Colaiuda2, Fabio Ferrante2, Paolo Tuccella1,3, Ludovico Di Antonio4, Raffaele Lidori1, Daniela Di Fazio9, Thomas Malatesta8, Jose Maria Costa Saura5, Donatella Spano5, Vincenzo Rizi1,3, Frank Silvio Marzano1,8, Francesco Luigi Rossi2, Silvio Liberatore2, Mauro Casinghini2, Giuliano Rossi6, and Barbara Tomassetti1
Annalina Lombardi et al.
  • 1CETEMPS - University of L'Aquila, CETEMPS - Center of Excellence, Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, L'Aquila, Italy (
  • 2Civil Protection Agency of Abruzzo Region, L’Aquila, 67100, Italy
  • 3Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences – University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, 67100, Italy
  • 4Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA) - Créteil Cedex, 94010, France
  • 5Department of Agricultural Sciences – University of Sassari, Sassari, 07100, Italy
  • 6Department of DICMA – DICEA - Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, 00184, Italy
  • 8P.I.V.E.C - Civil Protection Volunteer Association, L’Aquila, 67100, Italy
  • 9San Valentino in Abruzzo Citeriore Civil Protection Volunteer Association, San Valentino in Abruzzo Citeriore, 65020, Itay.

About 10000 hectares of forest, corresponding to the 12% of the national forestry heritage, are lost each year in Italy due to arson or negligent fires. Consequences on ecosystem and natural equilibrium are relevant, since the time for the natural restoration process may take several decades. Climate extremes exacerbates Mediterranean area fire risk, due to prolonged drought conditions. On the other hand, hydrogeological risk is also expected to increase over burnt slopes, where surface runoff is incremented due vegetation loss. According to the current legislation, fire risk management is in charge of the Italian Regional Civil Protection, therefore the development of user-oriented tools, able to prevent the fire hazardous conditions, is key element to ensure the forest-fire risk management. In the proposed model, the atmospheric conditions preceding a forest fire are estimated thought the combination of air temperature and relative humidity, as reference of atmospheric parameters.The approach assesses how many times the observed air temperature and RH of the previous 12 days area above the critical conditions (i.e., >25°C and < 50%, respectively). The model validation is carried out by using a three-years dataset of forest fires, that hit the Abruzzo region from 2018 to 2020, combined with meteorological data from civil protection gauges’ network. The developed index identified fire-precursors in the 80% of selected case studies. The missing 20% is manly related to the meteorological uncertainty in poorly gauged areas. Starting from the index validation, a pre-operational tool forced with ECMWF analyses is also described.

How to cite: Lombardi, A., Pizzi, G., Colaiuda, V., Ferrante, F., Tuccella, P., Di Antonio, L., Lidori, R., Di Fazio, D., Malatesta, T., Costa Saura, J. M., Spano, D., Rizi, V., Marzano, F. S., Luigi Rossi, F., Liberatore, S., Casinghini, M., Rossi, G., and Tomassetti, B.: Atmospheric Precursor of fire hazard: development of a fire-sentinel index for risk management in Abruzzo Region (Central Italy)., 17th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Frascati, Rome, Italy, 18–21 Oct 2022, Plinius17-57,, 2022.