Plinius Conference Abstracts
Vol. 18, Plinius18-7, 2024, updated on 11 Jul 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-7
18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Projected changes in the link between the deficit of moisture transport from major moisture sources and drought occurrence in the Mediterranean region

Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez, Raquel Nieto, Rogert Sorí, and Luis Gimeno
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo et al.
  • Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Ourense, Spain (luis.gimeno-sotelo@uvigo.es)

It is well-known that the Mediterranean region is a hotspot area in which meteorological droughts concerns, as climate models point to an increase in drought severity there. Here our aim is to study the projected changes in the influence of moisture transport deficits on drought occurrence. The contribution to the precipitation from the major moisture sources of the Mediterranean region is considered, i.e., from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea moisture sources. Statistical methods from the copula theory enabled us to estimate the conditional probability of drought occurrence given a contribution deficit from those sources, for the historical (1985-2014), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-century (2071-2100) periods. For this purpose, we make use of simulations based on dynamic downscaling by the high-resolution Eulerian mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) of the ERA5 reanalysis and the climate model Community Earth System Model Version 2 CESM2 model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We obtain that the pattern of the dominant moisture source, i.e., the one whose contribution deficit maximises drought probability, will remain relatively stable in the future. Moreover, our results point to a general increase in the conditional probabilities of drought occurrence given contribution deficits from the dominant source, for the mid-century and end-century periods, with respect to the historical one.   

How to cite: Gimeno-Sotelo, L., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., Sorí, R., and Gimeno, L.: Projected changes in the link between the deficit of moisture transport from major moisture sources and drought occurrence in the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-7, 2024.