Future projections of photovoltaic power generation potential change in Greece based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations

Here, we assess the projected changes of the photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) in Greece for the 21^st century. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative following three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6 (strong mitigation), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The spatial patterns of the PVpot changes in the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2100) relative to 1971-2000 are presented along with their statistical robustness. In addition, timeseries and boxplots with the projected changes are presented. Finally, the isolation of the effect of specific climatic variables (e.g., surface temperature and wind speed) on the projected PVpot changes is also examined and the importance of PV energy production for the country is discussed.

This research was funded by the project "Support for Enhancing the Operation of the National Network for Climate Change (CLIMPACT)", National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation, Greece (2023ΝA11900001 - Ν. 5201588).