Reducing flood-related deaths necessitates a deeper comprehension of the risk elements involved and the implementation of effective mitigation strategies. To understand the differences in flood-related deaths between developed and developing countries within a Mediterranean framework, we compiled a comprehensive database documenting 242 cases of mortality in western Algeria and Calabria, southern Italy. This database spans over a 33-year timeframe from 1990 to 2022, encompassing details such as the time and place of fatal accidents, victim characteristics, circumstances of death, and victim behaviour. In order to highlight the people's vulnerability, we have innovatively developed 13 mortality indices consolidated into four comprehensive indices: i) human, ii) physical, iii) environmental, and iv) circumstantial. The findings indicated a reduction in severe mortality incidents and the yearly number of flood-related deaths in both areas. The frequency of fatalities and the average number of deaths per year are higher in western Algeria, although the average number of fatalities per flood is practically the same. The flood mortality seasonality is similar oppositely to the spatial distribution. The assessment of mortality indices revealed similarities in vulnerability, except for the flood risk identification, rainfall and event death indices, which highlight the vulnerability of western Algeria, requiring prevention and protection actions suggested in this study. A key area for future research is to focus on the complex interaction between precipitation and basin-scale conditions, which would further strengthen the investigation into the role of victim behaviour in flood-related incidents. Moreover, refining the proposed indices with precision and validating their assessment procedures could offer novel, practical recommendations for saving lives in future flood events.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Sardou, M.: Comparison of flood mortality indices between western Algeria and southern Italy to enhance flood risk assessment within the Mediterranean framework, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-41, 2024.
Since fifteen years, there have been many publications on flood-related mortality, especially in Europe. However, the countries on the southern side of the Mediterranean sea (northern Africa) have received little attention. This presentation introduce the results of a study on flood-related mortality in Morocco and Tunisia. The period covered is 1980-2020, to ensure consistency with European publications. The method used starts from research in the newpapers, internet, existing database such as EM-DAT and in scientific and technical bibliography. Identified flood related fatalities are then confirmed on field, especially to obtain the location and the accurate circumstances of of the deaths.
1,400 deaths in Morocco and 275 in Tunisia have been identified between 1980 and 2020, but the number of deaths is probably underestimated before 1995 in Morocco and before 2010 in Tunisia. Indeed, data quality varies considerably from one period to the next. In Morocco, the Ourika flood event that triggered between 200 to 700 fatalities in August 1995 raised awareness of the issue of flooding. Since then, data collection has become much more accurate. In Tunisia, it was the spread of the Internet and the 2011 revolution that enabled flood information to be disseminated, particularly in the newspapers. The mortality rate for each country's population ranges from 0.66 (Tunisia) to 1.2 (Morocco) death per year and per million inhabitants.
The first result is the predominance of outdoor fatalities, either by car or pedestrians, for example when crossing wadis. Deaths at home are rarer than in Europe. We must note in Morocco the specific case of old houses that collapse during heavy rainstorms events. The age of dead people is younger than in Europe, reflecting the youth of the North African population. Men are over-represented. The geographical distribution of deaths shows mortality hotspots linked to population distribution. In Tunisia, fatalities have concentrated over the last ten years in the Tunis city region and along the coast, reflecting the increase in population along the coast.
How to cite: Vinet, F., Tramblay, Y., El Mehdi Saidi, M., Cherel, J., fehri, N., Ben Boubaker, H., Mahe, G., Gimenez, R., and Tissot, O.: Flood-related mortality in Tunisia and Morocco. Initial results for the period 1980-2020, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-19, 2024.
Flood fatalities are a significant challenge in the Euro-Mediterranean region, demanding a deeper exploration of the connection between rainfall patterns and the occurrence of flood-related deaths. While previous studies have documented the profiles, temporal and spatial contexts, and circumstances of flood fatalities in this region, they have primarily focused on demographic, social, and behavioural factors, often neglecting weather-related hazard parameters. This study aims to address this gap. In our research, we utilize the open-access Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region database (FFEM-DB), which encompasses 2,875 flood fatalities from 1980 to 2020. We define rainfall hazard variables by analyzing rainfall data from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.8 dataset. Then, we assess the role of rainfall amounts in explaining flood fatalities in conjunction with geomorphological parameters and socio-demographic changes over the study period. We employ various statistical techniques to investigate rainfall's temporal and spatial patterns and their association with flood fatalities. We also emphasize the importance of historical rainfall patterns in assessing flood risk and designing effective disaster management strategies. The insights gained from this study enhance the existing knowledge of the factors influencing flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region.
This research is performed in the frame of SNOWCLIM project funded by ECF.
How to cite: Papagiannaki, K., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Diakakis, M., and Kyriakou, P.: Analysis of the relationship of 41-yrs reanalysis rainfall data and flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-91, 2024.
Despite advancements in flood risk mitigation, many regions globally still experience severe flood disasters leading to significant loss of life. Estimating the frequency of such catastrophic events is challenging, particularly in areas with limited disaster and instrumental records. Nevertheless, accurate frequency estimates are crucial for preparedness and civil protection, especially in the context of climate change and the projected increase of such events. This study presents a comprehensive database of high-mortality floods in the Eastern Mediterranean from 1882 to 2021, enabling a detailed analysis of the deadliest events and their seasonal, temporal, and spatial characteristics. The database identifies 132 flood events (causing 10 or more fatalities), occurring on average every 1.56 years. While less frequent, high-magnitude events (above the 85th percentile) were observed to have a return period of 9.1 years in the region. The analysis indicates an increase in high-mortality flood events in recent decades and highlights distinct seasonal and spatial patterns. The findings provide a basis for an improved understanding of catastrophic flood occurrences in the region and specifically on how common such events can be. Additionally, this research represents a significant step towards comprehensively understanding historical trends in extreme floods and their potential future trajectories.
How to cite: Diakakis, M., Papagiannaki, K., and Fouskaris, M.: Evaluating the frequency of high-mortality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-73, 2024.
Reducing the loss of life and the number of people affected by natural disasters, including landslides and floods, is an expected outcome of the Sendai Framework that provided a set of guiding principles, including a call for the integration of a gender perspective. Previous studies on natural disasters have documented how people's social roles shape their experiences of disasters, their vulnerability, and their ability to respond and recover, highlighting how people's mortality in disasters can be dramatically exacerbated by their gender.
Within this framework, the main motivation guiding the present research is to understand how risk perception affected people behaviors divided by gender and age. At this aim the methodology we used consisted in carrying out a nationwide questionnaire in collaboration with an Italian independent Marketing Research Institute (Piepoli) to quantitatively measure the levels of geo-hydrological risk perception. For the purpose, we prepared the questionnaires designed to help the interviewees to consider first their general feelings about environmental and natural risks, and next, their specific understanding and fear of landslide and flood risk. The sampling strategy used a classification based on demographic variables, including: the size and distribution of the population in each Italian macro-region, the sex by age and the education degree.
Results were compared with the observed distribution by gender and age of landslide and flood fatalities in Italy.
The analysis is crucial to single out population groups most vulnerable to geo-hydrological hazard in Italy. The results obtained are important to improve the safety of people, to increase the resilience of communities to landslides and floods and to design effective informative risk reduction campaigns, as we have found that gender influences landslide and flood mortality. Data disaggregated by gender, age, and environment allowed the identification of possible associations between influential variables, and the selection of those that were most (statistically) significant. The norms of social processes related to the risk cycle may vary according to age, gender, and culture, as well as the social and economic context in which people live. In addition, the gender norms referred to the rules in different social groups (i.e. family, workplace, institution) are key factors in explaining how individuals respond to risk. In conclusion, the potential of gender analysis applied to that field, can promote the efficiency of the measures adopted to respond to crises and enable social equality in the response to the direct and indirect damage caused by geo-hydrological disasters, not only in Italy but everywhere.
How to cite: Salvati, P., Antronico, L., Bianchi, C., Carone, M. T., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S., Rossi, M., and Sessa, M.: Geo-hydrological events and human losses: a gender perspective, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-114, 2024.
Effective decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events such as floods is crucial to mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts. Traditional approaches often fall short of providing adequate guidance under uncertain conditions. In this study, we explore the effectiveness of cooperative gaming in enhancing decision-making processes during such crises.
As part of the European ANYWHERE project, we developed ANYCaRE (Anywhere Crisis and Risk Experiment), a role-playing game simulating a crisis management unit responsible for ensuring the safety of populations during weather crises. Simulated high-impact events include floods/flash floods and wind storms. A more complex scenario simulated cross-border CBRN hazards. Players take on the roles of representatives of the various organizations in the crisis unit. They must collectively choose the best options for ensuring people's safety in the face of a damaging and rapidly evolving event. The chronology adapted to the pace of the hazard under consideration: three successive rounds of play simulate and anticipate the evolution of the risk, from detection to impact.
The primary aim of the game was to assess the benefits of new forecasts and impact-based products in decision-making under pressure. The S-ANYCaRE version tested how public information from social media is used in emergency centers to decide on protection and risk communication. Since 2017, over 300 participants engaged in real-time decision-making exercises testing probabilistic forecasts and impact-based information in various settings, including European workshops, training courses, and emergency operations centers. Post-game investigation suggests that these forecasts, including crowdsourcing data, increase decision-makers confidence during the crisis. In the debriefing phase, stakeholders highlighted challenges in managing data overload and prioritizing actions.
The serious games approach developed in this study proved valuable in fostering interdisciplinary cooperation and raising awareness about the complexities of managing weather-related emergencies. The playing scenarios require strategic thinking amidst uncertainty, facilitating a better understanding of flood crisis management. Therefore, we envisage using game sessions for multiple purposes, including the sensibilization of participants to the challenges of managing weather emergencies, facilitating cooperation between developers and end-users for the development of efficient pre-operational forecast products, and training civil protection authorities and stakeholders in new disaster management tools.
The evolution of PICSCaRE, a version of the game simulating a recent flood catastrophe in southern France, into a participative simulation tool marks a significant advancement. This tool, combining the tabletop role-playing game with a digital agent-based behavior simulator currently under development, will enable players to test the effectiveness of their crisis management and communication measures on individual responses and the frequency of endangerment situations.
This study presents the stages of development of this hybrid version and its potential to raise awareness of the variety of behavioral responses to changing hydrometeorological circumstances and associated socio-economic impacts. We envisage that integrating serious games into routine flood crisis management exercises enhances decision-making skills and preparedness. In particular, combining impact models with serious games would foster better risk communication and adaptive strategies. As hydrometeorological events increase in frequency and severity, innovative approaches like simulation games are crucial for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in a changing climate.
How to cite: Terti, G., Ruin, I., Gaudou, B., Grancher, D., Bodini, D., Nicolle, P., and Payrastre, O.: Improving decision-making during high-impact hydrometeorological events: A series of serious games for flood crisis management exercises, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-68, 2024.
Research in flood mitigation techniques is increasingly focused in investigating how proactive and bottom-up approaches can be effectively integrated in flood risk management. In particular, the role of stakeholders and communities has been recognized as relevant in planning strategies for risk prevention and management. In this framework, the scientific community is recognizing the added value of non-authoritative and unconventional sources to obtain precious details about flood events, including citizen contribution at different levels of engagement. Despite the high amount of information potentially retrievable, this research field still suffers from systematic data collection, especially in urban areas. In fact, citizens are rarely actively involved in monitoring programs, and their contribution is often limited to a spontaneous sharing of photos and videos on social platforms during or after the events. Despite not being systematically organized, these sources of information can support various applications related to flood studies, involving not only hydraulic and hydrological aspects but also the human dimension. Literature covering methods and applications exploiting social media data in different fields is widely diffused, including topics as flood mapping, flood modelling (constraint, calibration, and validation), risk assessment (vulnerability, hazard, impacts or damages), and human reactions to flood occurrence (sentiment analysis, human behavior), with the potential of applications for emergency management. However, research on this topic is often focused only single aspects, whereas an integrated perspective is needed to accomplish the requirements of flood risk management, which calls for information that is both physical and related to human response. In this study, a workflow is proposed for a systematic collection and analysis of video content to support the retrieval of different kind of fine-grained information about flood events dynamics and their impacts. The workflow applied to the case study of Crotone (southern Italy), which experienced a severe urban flood in 2020, produced an example of a georeferenced information collection, potentially suitable for integrated analysis on flood risk. Our research provides further insights about strengths and limitations of crowdsourced information and its potential role in the design of flood risk mitigation strategies.
How to cite: Lombardo, M., Chiaravalloti, F., Totaro, V., and Petrucci, O.: Fine-grained information collection from social media for supporting integrated approaches to flood risk analysis, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-67, 2024.
Citizen science is a powerful tool for promoting the understanding of urban climate and potential climate change hazards. By engaging citizens in scientific research and data collection, we can harness the collective power of communities to gather valuable information and contribute to our knowledge of urban climate dynamics.
The H2020 I-CHANGE project (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, https://ichange-project.eu/) faces the challenge of engaging and promoting the active participation of citizens for addressing climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection in the framework of the European Green Deal, the European Climate Pact and the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.
Also the HE project AGORA (A Gathering place to cO-design and co-cReate Adaptation, https://adaptationagora.eu/) has the ambition to contribute in building climate change adaptation roadmaps by fostering the participation and engagement of citizens and stakeholders in the co-design and co-creation of innovative problem-oriented climate adaptation solutions.
In this framework, citizens can be trained, in the I-CHANGE project, to collect weather data using simple, low-cost monitoring tools. This data can then be aggregated and analysed to identify trends, patterns, and potential climate change hazards specific to urban areas. On the other hand, in the AGORA project, citizens can contribute to populate inventories on climate data, climate risks and climate adaptation and to develop the Digital Academy focused on a proper usage of climate data. Engaging citizens in this process fosters a sense of ownership and responsibility for their environment while also increasing their awareness of the impacts of climate change. By actively participating in data collection, citizens gain firsthand experience of how climate variables affect their daily lives and communities. Moreover, citizen science initiatives can be integrated into educational programs at schools, allowing students to actively participate in scientific research and contribute to the understanding of urban climate.
Leveraging technology can enhance citizen engagement and data collection. Mobile applications and online platforms can be developed to facilitate data entry, provide real-time information, and encourage collaboration among participants. These digital tools make it easier for citizens to contribute to ongoing research efforts, access educational resources, and visualize the collected data, further promoting understanding of urban climate dynamics. All these “non-standard” measurements can be used (after a strict quality control) to enrich the official network in areas where it is more needed. In this work we will focus on urban areas to show how data collected by citizens can help in understanding the Urban Heat Island effect, also in relation to Heat Waves.
How to cite: Milelli, M., Oberto, E., Uboldi, F., Polo, L., Parodi, A., Adinolfi, M., and Mercogliano, P.: Enhancing the engagement of citizens in weather data collection: the AGORA and I-CHANGE Projects approach, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-83, 2024.
The main objective of the OCEANIDS project is to develop user-driven applications and tools, aiming to enhance and facilitate regional authorities and stakeholders, fostering a systemic pathway that promotes resilience and inclusivity leading to a Blue Economy in coastal regions. The project focuses on facilitating a comprehensive seascape management approach by integrating spatial and non-spatial data and diverse services into a single-access window platform for Climate-Informed Maritime Spatial Planning (CI-MSP). The core innovation is the OCEANIDS Decision Support Platform (O-DSP) which focuses on the harmonization and curation of climate and meteorological data services, making them accessible, reusable, and interoperable to support local adaptation strategies. OCEANIDS enhances adaptive capacities and supports transformative innovations by providing critical access to knowledge, data, and digital services essential for understanding and managing climate risks. The project emphasizes inclusivity as a pivotal factor in advancing a Blue Economy, focusing on both individual and systemic behavioural changes, enabling participating regions and communities to better understand and use potential social tipping points to accelerate transformative changes towards climate resilience. OCEANIDS focuses on promoting inclusive and deliberative governance through meaningful engagement and dialogue between citizens and stakeholders. This shall be achieved via case-specific tools, such as ephemeral social networks, which support local citizens' assemblies for bottom-up deliberation promoting this way civic engagement, and empowering individuals to take action within their communities. Moreover, OCEANIDS contributes to mobilizing sustainable finance and resources, aiming to scale adaptation efforts and close the climate protection gap. The project’s multidisciplinary approach aligns with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) objectives, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development, providing a robust framework for enhancing resilience to mitigate risks in Mediterranean coastal regions.
How to cite: Marinou, E., Kolokoussis, P., Kontopoulos, C., and Charalampopoulou, V. (.: OCEANIDS: Empowering Citizen-Driven Climate Resilience and Inclusive Governance for a Sustainable Blue Economy in Mediterranean Coastal Regions, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-47, 2024.
Urban Living Labs are vital collaborative spaces where citizens, researchers, and stakeholders join forces to tackle local challenges, but of wide interest for different socio-economic and climatic context. By involving citizens, Living Labs ensure that solutions align closely with individuals needs and priorities, fostering community engagement and ownership. Additionally, these Labs serve as innovation hubs, bringing together diverse expertise to drive forward creative and effective strategies.
The I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition, 2021-2025) H2020 project aims to foster active citizen participation in addressing climate change-related issues. Through engaging citizens and local stakeholders, the project promotes behavioral and consumption shifts towards sustainability, utilizing citizen science experiments and campaigns. This is facilitated through a network of Living Labs situated in various socio-economic and geographical contexts, including Barcelona (Spain), Bologna (Italy), Genoa (Italy) and Jerusalem (Israel) along the Mediterranean basin and the cities of Amsterdam (the Netherlands), Dublin (Ireland), Hasselt (Belgium) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). The Living Labs involve citizens, civil society, industry and public administration, playing a crucial role in transitioning to more sustainable behaviors.
One of the project initiatives has been the cooperation of the eight Living Labs for the organization of the I-CHANGE Day in the framework of the European Green Week, a joint effort to work in common campaigns and citizen science activities using low-cost sensors for measuring meteorological and air pollution variables. During this day, all the Living Labs participating in the project have engaged citizens within common citizen science campaigns. The project has chosen a meaningful date for this occasion, June the 5th 2024, the World Environmental Day.
The first proposed joint campaign was related to air pollution measurement in the cities of the Living Labs. Low-cost air quality sensors have been installed in Barcelona, Bologna, Genoa, Dublin, and Ouagadougou cities and have collected data for a common period until the I-CHANGE Day. The main objective was to compare the level of air pollution in the different regions where the sensors are installed and use these data for citizen engagement. This engagement increased citizens’ sensitization to the impacts of air pollution and the importance of advocating for more sustainable behaviours in their communities. A detailed protocol has been developed to guide the campaign through its different phases.
The second common campaign was a citizen-science experiment where citizens from Amsterdam, Barcelona, Bologna, Dublin, Genoa, Hasselt, Jerusalem, and Ouagadougou collected high spatio-temporal resolution data of temperature, humidity, and pressure to investigate temperature perception in specific areas of each city, the role played by temperature and humidity, and reflect on the social use of those spaces. The comparison between the locations selected and their social usages have provided critical information on the relevance of spaces for the different communities. Evaluating temperature perception and comparing it with collected data can provide insights for developing novel solutions and assess the effectiveness of already implemented natural-based solutions in the urban areas.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193
How to cite: Esbri, L., Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Marcos, R., Sola, Y., Adnan, M., Campos, G., Cintolesi, C., Dorato, S., Mölter, A., Polo, L., Steeneveld, G.-J., Torou, B. M., Di Sabatino, S., and Parodi, A. and the I-CHNAGE Living Labs: Living Labs and citizen science to activate change of individual habits in a context of Climate Change: the I-CHANGE Day , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-94, 2024.
In recent decades, Climate Change is causing the increasing of frequency and intensity of weather-related extreme events, exposing several populations to risk. Therefore, measures to mitigate the impacts resulting from this phenomenon are increasingly necessary.
To devise effective strategies, it is essential to consider that many losses are due to numerous factors, including economic and social ones. A crucial role is played by the behaviors adopted by people, and the extent to which people are willing to make changes to their lifestyles.
Therefore, mitigation measures to be truly effective should include important non-structural actions. This refers to strategies that work on social aspects of communities that influence their resilience. There are many elements that influence social resilience, and among them risk perception plays a crucial role. Risk perception, however, is linked to numerous other aspects such as propensity to prepare for the event with adaptation measures, awareness and knowledge, good communication and information, trust in institutions, cultural background, and even having experienced a previous disaster. Moreover, the literature points out that these aspects are strongly influenced by gender and socio-economic differences related to the specific involved area. Therefore, understanding these differences is a key for the implementation of effective climate change adaptation strategies.
To achieve this, a nationwide survey on risk perception related to Climate Change was carried out to better understand the aspects listed above. Data were collected by administering interviews conducted between April 12 and 19, 2023 using CATI/CAMI/CAWI methodology to a representative sample of the Italian population and then weighted to be representative for the overall sample. The results refer to the adult population (1279 interviews) divided by gender and by Italian territorial macro-areas (NW, NE, Center, South, Islands).
The obtained results and the differences noted between genders and different Italian macro-areas provide a fundamental basis for better calibration of climate change adaptation measures aimed at increasing the resilience of Italian population.
How to cite: Carone, M. T., Antronico, L., Coscarelli, R., Gariano, S. L., Sessa, M., and Salvati, P.: Climate Change perception in different Italian macro-areas, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-96, 2024.
Climate change and overheating pose significant risks and challenges for humans, for the
environment, and for contemporary cities. Among its consequences, urban overheating,
extreme weather events and heatwaves very often affect human life at various levels,
developing several societal, economic, and natural hazards. The Mediterranean region is one of
the most exposed to climate change risks areas in the world, due to its specific climate and
geographic characteristics in combination with the existing socio-economic gaps, population
growth and migration levels. Countries and cities located around the Mediterranean area
suffered from increased temperatures and heatwaves several times in recent years. Indicatively,
Cooling Degree Days -an indicator expressing the demand for space cooling due to increased
weather temperatures- have increased by around 57% since 1979 in Greece, according to
official statistics. Following the need to address these challenges, this study aims to identify and
evaluate the impacts and risks of overheating in the context of climate change in Greek cities. It
uses the method of Operational Risk Management in three steps. Firstly, it investigates the
hazards and risks of climate change through extended research in the recent literature,
classifying them to risks for humans (health, employment), environment (disaster of
ecosystems) and cities (building environment, economy, society). Secondly, the assessment of
the identified hazards is implemented through the evaluation done by different city stakeholders
involved in urban activities (public entities, research and academy, private sector, non-
governmental organizations, citizens). The results from the stakeholders are used at a later
stage for calculations, leading to a ranking of the hazards by importance/severity and by
probability of happening soon. The findings could shed light on the most vulnerable aspects of
the cities affected by climate change. This evaluation and the resulted ranking could be also an
important finding for policymakers to design and implement Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and
climate adaptation policies.
Keywords: climate change; heatwaves; Operational Risk Management; hazards severity
How to cite: Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, S., Papagou, M., and Tsoutsos, T.: Climate change and overheating: A multi-level risk assessment of impacts on Greek cities, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-108, 2024.
As warming and drying future conditions may significantly affect the human and natural environment in the Mediterranean, the climate risks and vulnerabilities assessments are key to support adaptation strategies. In this context, the Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100 (RNA2100) aimed at providing scientific support to adaptation policy exercises by (1) identifying and characterising climate change impacts on the most vulnerable domains in Portugal Mainland; (2) characterising socioeconomic impacts on different territorial scales and assess financial needs; and (3) contributing to the implementation of a National Spatial Planning Policy Programme. The most vulnerable domains focused by the RNA2100 include the coastal regions, water resources/agroforestry and wildfires. The RNA2100 followed three stages: regional climate scenarization, biophysical impacts for a number of sectors and hazards, and the economic analysis of selected impacts. The future projected climate for Portugal was characterized using a weighted multi-model multi-variable ensemble based on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, produced at 12 km resolution. One historical present climate period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), under three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were considered. The biophysical impact modelling was performed for four climate impact sectors: coastal erosion and flooding, forest fires, water and agroforestry systems.
Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources and agroforestry in mainland Portugal. Southern regions, particularly beyond the Tagus River, will face more significant impacts, with the Water Exploitation Index plus (WEI+) potentially increasing by up to +99 percentage points under RCP8.5 or around +22 points under RCP4.5. Without adaptation, economic losses could average €426 million annually under the moderate mitigation scenario and approach €670 million under the high emissions scenario. Even meeting Paris Agreement targets could still result in yearly losses of €172 million by 2100. The discourse on climate adaptation and wildfire management in the five NUTS II regions emphasizes the importance of multifaceted strategies in confronting the escalating threat of wildfires exacerbated by climate change. The results emphasize the pivotal role of awareness initiatives with coercive measures is crucial to effectively reduce ignitions and mitigate projected losses (saving from 290,000 euros/year in A.M.L. to 88 million euros/year in Centro). Portuguese coastal areas are extensively vulnerable to climate change impacts, with projections showing up to 587 km2 (RCP4.5) and 604 km2 (RCP8.5) of vulnerable coastlines by the end of the 21st century. Adaptation is overall recommended at national scale, despite the different results yielded by the cost-benefit analysis, depending on the region. Total inaction costs (without adaptation) are projected to surpass 12000 million € (RCP4.5) and 14000 million € (RCP8.5) until 2100, in contrast with approximately 5000 million € (for both scenarios) of expected adaptation costs.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). The authors would like also to acknowledge the EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through the Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2).
How to cite: Soares, P. M. M. and the FCUL Team: The Portuguese National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-117, 2024.
For the first time in 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed the specific impact of our changing climate on the Mediterranean Basin. According to the IPCC, this geographical area shows a unique (historical and) environmental identity, including physiographic and ecological features. Specifically, the Mediterranean region faces regional climate change-induced risks, surpassing the global average and accentuated by the area’s heightened vulnerability, not limited to the environmental aspects.
In this context, the natural ecosystem is confronted to a growing array of challenges from diverse nature: wildfires, floods, desertification. The repercussions extend beyond environmental concerns, directly jeopardizing national and regional security, and generating a cascade of economic, social, and political effects.
Space-based technologies play a significant role in addressing the challenges of climate resilience, as evidenced by the on-going implementation of over one hundred projects already using space solutions in Mediterranean countries. Ranging from the development of fully-fledged systems to smaller-scale local initiatives, these projects are aimed at addressing several of the above-mentioned challenges, depending on available resources and policy priorities.
Beyond providing insights on the plethora of space-based solutions currently used and planned to address climate resilience challenges, this paper will provide:
- An overview of how these projects are aligned with climate resilience challenges as identified and prioritised by Mediterranean countries in their climate policies. These encompass a spectrum of general and sectorial mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing climate-related concerns, complemented by security and disaster risk management policies.
- A gap analysis highlighting climate resilience challenges where space-based solutions still hold untapped potential.
- A series of policy recommendations to maximise the positive impact of space on climate resilience in the Mediterranean region, built on the outcomes of the research and elaborated together with representatives of relevant actors based in the selected countries.
How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: The role of space for Climate Resilience: a focus on the Mediterranean region, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-125, 2024.
The Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula covers a total of 1,609 km of coastline between the Spanish-French border and Gibraltar and is an area with increasing impacts related with extreme meteorological phenomena, but also linked to the socio-economic characteristics of the areas affected. It is an area with a high concentration of economic activities, especially tourism. On the other hand, this zone contains areas of high ecosystem value. All this means that natural hazards can cause more serious damage, both socio-economic and environmental. Understanding the compounding threats of floods, sea storms and other hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean is crucial in the context of climate change and has serious implications for coastal resilience.
This study examines the socio-economic impacts of compound events of floods, wind and sea storms on coastal communities. First, this communication presents the process of identifying these events carried out in the framework of C3Riskmed project, including the role of new sources of information such as citizen science, social networks or historical landmarks. The economic impact of these events has been analysed using the Insurance Compensation Consortium (CCS). The analysis of remarkability, which was assessed using a remarkability criterion that integrates physical and socio-economic variables, is also presented. To finish, an analysis of the similarities and differences in the impact of these different events (in terms of economic impact, fatalities or damage to selected natural areas) will be included.
This research has been done in the framework of the C3Riskmed project, Grant PID2020-113638RB-C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.
How to cite: Llasat-Botija, M., Llasat, M. C., Marcos-Matamoros, R., and Castán, S.: Analysis and comparison of the impact of floods and compound flood events on the Spanish Peninsular Mediterranean coast, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-52, 2024.
Citizen science is increasingly employed to raise awareness and foster action on climate change and sustainability by involving the public in scientific processes. These initiatives promote scientific understanding and active participation in defining adaptation strategies, engaging diverse population groups and stakeholders. Participatory mechanisms play a crucial role in geo-hydrological disaster management, aiming to increase risk awareness among the population, especially the most vulnerable.
Within the H2020 I-CHANGE project, a participatory initiative is underway in Chiavari, part of the Genoa metropolitan area, involving local public offices, high school students, and teachers. Chiavari was chosen due to the wealth of information on past geohydrological events, including a significant flood in November 2014. This event provided abundant multimedia materials that enabled detailed reconstruction. Students simulated their presence during the flood and conducted field campaigns to gather local data and experiences through interviews with witnesses. They recorded specific data on a web application, describing various characteristics of the event such as water height and flow speed.
This hands-on approach was impactful for the students, allowing them to reconstruct local historical memory. Despite their young age during the 2014 flood, many remembered and feared the event, demonstrating its lasting impression. Complementarily, a survey on extreme event knowledge and perception was conducted among high school students and adults. Focus groups with students further explored themes identified in the survey.
The continuous engagement with young people has established a vivacious communication channel to raise awareness of the climate risks they will face. The project investigates several key points regarding participatory mechanisms with young people:
(i) The challenges and opportunities of using participatory and citizen science approaches to monitor geohydrological risks.
(ii) The effectiveness of these methods in enhancing risk awareness.
(iii) The broader implications of involving students in citizen science, including social interactions, participation levels, and technical-scientific challenges.
(iv) The impact on students' orientation towards sustainable behaviors and lifestyles.
How to cite: Marchesini, I., Mezzacapo, U., Sterlacchini, S., Voltolina, D., Gencarelli, C., Esposito, G., Galizia, A., Fortunati, M., Sarretta, A., Mondini, A., and Salvati, P.: Engaging Youth in Citizen Science for Geohydrological Risk Awareness: A Case Study from Chiavari, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-84, 2024.
Food Security has become one of the highest political priorities at the national, regional, and international level, notably emphasised in the UN Secretary General's Common Agenda and most recent statements under the G7 umbrella.
Climate change is a key determinant of current and future risks at stake for food security. The alteration of Essential Climate Variables undeniably affects and poses significant threats to natural ecosystems’ resilience. In turn, cascading effects are observed in various aspects of our societies as a whole, particularly in the realm of water and food security.
Given the unique climate vulnerability in the Mediterranean region, a prioritized and elevated attention is required, directly undermining the need for intervention to address the humanitarian crisis stemming from food insecurity. The urgency of acting has been understood, along with recognizing that only a coordinated regional approach can be effective in tackling these issues towards a possible solution. Additionally, by leveraging shared expertise and best practices developed in food security-related fields, both Mediterranean countries and stakeholders around the world will have the opportunity to enhance their national response.
The value of space-based solutions in addressing the underlying issues at stake contributing to food insecurity has already been acknowledged. This has been largely evidenced by the emergence of various initiatives, outlined in this paper, directly tackling food security challenges using space data. However, despite these on-going efforts, the full potential of space-based solutions has yet to be fully realized, hence expanding beyond current untapped capabilities and their impact. Thus, several activities could be undertaken to optimize the use of space data and derived information to overcome both current and foreseen food security challenges.
Unleashing this potential requires concreate actions at all levels, and with a multidisciplinary approach. In particular, policy and regulatory measures play a central role in this regard, as demonstrated based on an initial analysis of the status of affairs, complemented by a broad consultation campaign involving both policymakers and decision-makers from Mediterranean countries, as well as relevant international organisations such as FAO, WFP, IFAD.
How to cite: Redigonda, G., Bersegol, L., Francis, J., Rochard, S., and Corbett, L.: Space applications at the service of Food Security, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-127, 2024.
The analysis of societal impacts from natural hazards has gained increasing importance, especially with climate change intensifying the frequency of extreme events. Studying community responses to past extreme events provides valuable insights into local risk management evolution. This study examines the immediate impacts and long-term societal responses to two significant mid-20th century flood events in Carinthia (Austria) and Calabria (Italy). The two study areas differ considerably with respect to climatic, geomorphologic, demographic and social conditions. Carinthia is an alpine region in the South of Austria, while Calabria represents a typical Mediterranean region, located at the southernmost peninsular extremity of Italy. Despite differences, they both experienced transformative floods that led to major adaptation measures. In Calabria, the catastrophic floods of 1951 and 1953 resulted in 150 fatalities and widespread infrastructure damage, prompting a mass emigration in America and the enactment of Law N. 938/1953 by the Italian government. In Carinthia, the floods of 1965 and 1966 caused 22 fatalities and extensive economic damage, leading to comprehensive river regulation measures. For each region and event, we assessed indicators such as rainfall intensity, flood discharge, affected areas, damage types, population impact, fatalities, injuries, homelessness, economic damage, and post-event countermeasures. We furthermore use historical maps to delineate the extent of the damage and show the morphological impact of flood protection and river regulation measures introduced to reduce future risk. Our analysis reveals that both regions, despite differing socio-economic contexts, predominantly relied on structural interventions for flood protection, according to a typical approach of the XX century. However, these measures also had adverse hydrological and economic consequences, including groundwater lowering, base penetration threats, and sediment entrapment. This study underscores the importance of multi-dimensional risk management strategies and the need for adaptive measures that account for both immediate and long-term impacts. By comparing these historical events, we highlight the evolution of flood management practices and the ongoing necessity for balanced, sustainable approaches to hazard mitigation.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and Orieschnig, C.: Societal Impacts and Adaptive Responses to Mid-20th Century Flood Events in Carinthia and Calabria, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-53, 2024.
Understanding the risks associated with climate change and variability, particularly related to the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and pollution, is crucial for safeguarding public health and safety. As global temperatures rise, hot and dry conditions become more prevalent, exacerbating the likelihood of devastating wildfires that not only destroy ecosystems but also release harmful pollutants into the air. Pollutants from these events, desert plumes, industry, and other sources, including particulate matter, pose significant respiratory and cardiovascular risks to the population, particularly vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and those with preexisting health conditions. Comprehensive awareness and proactive measures are essential to mitigate these risks, ensuring that communities are better prepared to adapt and respond to the escalating challenges posed by our changing climate.
In this work, we adopt the IPCC's definition of risk, which encompasses the potential for adverse consequences due to the interplay of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. We analyse climate-related hazards including heatwaves, droughts, fires measured by fire radiative power, and pollution quantified as PM2.5 levels. These hazards are assessed in conjunction with population characteristics that determine exposure, such as population density. Furthermore, we evaluate vulnerability through socio-economic variables like the Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP per capita, which provide insights into the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the different communities. By integrating these elements, our study aims to comprehensively understand and quantify the risks posed by climate to human and ecological systems at the global level.
Results indicate that populations in Western and Eastern Africa, as well as Southeastern Asia, are most at risk from the combined impacts of heatwaves, droughts, and fires. The Mediterranean region, particularly the African Mediterranean and Greece are also at risk concerning hot and dry events. However, the Mediterranean regions are not particularly at risk from the combined effects of fire and pollution. These regions are characterized by significant exposure to extreme weather events and varying levels of vulnerability due to socio-economic factors. When considering pollution alone, regions such as Western Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Eastern and Southeastern Asia face particularly high levels of risk, primarily due to elevated concentrations of PM2.5 pollutants. The intersection of high exposure and vulnerability in these areas underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions and adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse health and environmental impacts of these climate-related hazards.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Bento, V. A., Lima, D. C. A., and Russo, A.: Assessing Climate-Related Risks: Heatwaves, Droughts, Fires, and Pollution in Vulnerable Regions of the Globe, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-57, 2024.
Here, we assess the projected changes of the photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) in Greece for the 21st century. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative following three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6 (strong mitigation), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The spatial patterns of the PVpot changes in the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2100) relative to 1971-2000 are presented along with their statistical robustness. In addition, timeseries and boxplots with the projected changes are presented. Finally, the isolation of the effect of specific climatic variables (e.g., surface temperature and wind speed) on the projected PVpot changes is also examined and the importance of PV energy production for the country is discussed.
This research was funded by the project "Support for Enhancing the Operation of the National Network for Climate Change (CLIMPACT)", National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation, Greece (2023ΝA11900001 - Ν. 5201588).
How to cite: Georgoulias, A. K., Akritidis, D., Kalisoras, A., Melas, D., and Zanis, P.: Future projections of photovoltaic power generation potential change in Greece based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-87, 2024.
Mediterranean storms generating flash floods in small urbanized watersheds are leading to worsening socio-economic impacts, and challenges in terms of disaster risk management. One of the main issues affecting risk reduction in these settings is the occurrence of rough topography coupled with high density of buildings and infrastructures. This can limit structural interventions aimed at hazard mitigation, and only allow countermeasures that focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure of people and properties.
Damage models are useful tools for addressing some of the criticalities affecting flash flood risk reduction. These models aim to predict the extent of monetary loss associated with exposed assets by relating the expected physical damage to the recovery or reconstruction costs. The input data of the damage models consist of different types of variables that define the physical vulnerability of edifices. With reference to residential buildings, a series of characteristics including building type, structure, and number of floors need to be collected in the field. Damage models based on innovative machine learning algorithms can also support disaster managers during the response phase to flash flood events, by providing rapid damage scenarios that are useful for organizing relief operations.
Besides the physical vulnerability, it is also important to assess and reduce the social vulnerability of communities at risk. Informing the population on how to prepare for flash flood scenarios is crucial for mitigating the impact of future disasters. Generally, public involvement in the geo-hydrological disaster management cycle, supported by information and communication technologies, and training exercises, represent useful strategies to enhance the risk awareness and self-protection behaviors of citizens.
In this framework, the Hyrma (Hydrogeological Risk Assessment through Collaborative Mapping) project aims to implement collaborative data collection to acquire, store, analyze, and share geo-localized data about hazard, exposure, and physical vulnerability of buildings in flash flood-prone areas. Information on damage and costs related to past events are also collected. Trained volunteers can submit geo-localized data about selected residential buildings directly in the field, in pre-structured forms, via dropdown menus, single and multiple choices menus including images and videos. For this purpose, low-cost and user-centered web applications are properly designed and made available free of charge on smartphones and tablets. Data collected at the pilot sites are used to: i) develop or update existing damage models; ii) inform involved citizens about the risk they are exposed to, increasing their awareness and self-protection capabilities that may be transferred to other people according to a cascading effect.
The current contribution presents preliminary outcomes of the Hyrma project, such as the implemented web application form along with examples of the first datasets collected by students, Civil Protection volunteers, and technicians in the coastal city of La Spezia (northern Italy). Here, the local municipality has just released an updated hydraulic model providing the expected water depths and velocities for twelve inhabited watersheds with thousands of people and buildings at risk.
This project has received funding from the European Union – Next Generation EU, under grant agreement 2022NRAW3Z_PE10_PRIN2022.
How to cite: Esposito, G., Molinari, D., Sterlacchini, S., Zazzeri, M., Chelli, G., Cavalli, R. M., Milella, M., and Salvati, P.: Collaborative data collection to assess physical vulnerability of residential buildings in the flash flood-prone city of La Spezia, northern Italy, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-98, 2024.
Severe storms can cause territorial crisis encompassing the occurrence of phenomena such as floods and landslides (F&L), resulting in significant damage to human life and property. While existing literature often separately analyzes floods and landslides due to their distinct mechanisms, forecasting methods, and preventive measures, there is a growing recognition of the need for a multi-hazard approach to enhance risk management planning. Particularly prevalent in regions with susceptible geomorphological features and specific climatic conditions, such as the Mediterranean, F&L pose substantial threats, further exacerbated by projected climate change impacts. This study focuses on the region of Calabria, Southern Italy, prone to frequent occurrences of F&L, aiming to assess the evolving impacts of these events on the population over time. We started the research by hypothesizing that shifts in societies, land use, policies, and population habits may change F&L impact on individuals over the years, either increasing or decreasing.
Utilizing systematic analysis of regional newspapers and historical archives spanning two decades (1951-1960 and 2011-2020), we constructed a database categorizing the impact of F&L into three severity levels: fatalities, injuries, and involvement in F&L related incidents. Narratives of events were disaggregated to describe victim profiles and accident circumstances. Despite variations in data availability and reliability between the two study periods, our analysis revealed insights into human vulnerability to F&L and emphasized the importance of systematic data collection for informed risk reduction strategies.
Comparing the two periods, we found a significant decrease in fatalities between 1951-1960 (around 200 in 10 years) and 2011-2020 (around 20 in 10 years), accompanied by increased information on injuries and individuals involved in F&L events in the latter period. This result underscores potential shifts in societal dynamics, land use, policies, and population habits impacting people vulnerability to F&L.
Our study proposes a methodological approach, applicable to other Mediterranean or non-Mediterranean regions, to identify vulnerabilities in interactions between people and F&L during severe rainfall events. By focusing on people's behavior and its evolution over time, this approach provides valuable insights for planning customized informative campaigns aimed at enhancing awareness and improving precautionary behaviors and self-rescue strategies in flood and landslide scenarios.
***This work was funded by the Next Generation EU—Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of ‘Innovation Ecosystems’, building ‘Territorial R&D Leaders’ (Directorial Decree n. 2021/3277)—project Tech4You—Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009. This work reflects only the authors' views and opinions, neither the Ministry for University and Research nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.
How to cite: Scarcella, G. E., Cosentini, G., Valente, E., and Petrucci, O.: Comparative Analysis of Human Vulnerability to floods and landslides in Southern Italy: A Multi-Decadal Study, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-42, 2024.
