Insights into the December 1944 Extreme Cold–Wet Event in Southeastern Spain: Evidence of Change in Its Present-Day Analogues

Extreme precipitation events are among the major hazards in the Mediterranean region, owing to their multiple impacts on natural and human systems. Their characterisation and physical understanding have been the focus of decades of research, particularly in the context of changes driven by global warming. These events are frequently associated with cut-off lows, which may also involve the advection of cold air at the surface. However, events producing concurrent extreme rainfall and snowfall within hydrological basins have received comparatively less attention.

In late December 1944, one such event caused severe impacts in the Segura River Basin, in southeastern Spain, generating both flooding and snowfall of extraordinary magnitude. Some observatories recorded precipitation totals reaching 220 mm over consecutive rainy days, while several villages became isolated by snow depths of up to one metre. The event resulted in fatalities and substantial socioeconomic impacts. This study aims to improve our understanding of cold–wet compound extreme events in the Mediterranean region by characterising this historical case study and assessing changes from 1941 to 2021 through the identification of circulation-analogue events. To this end, we combine newspaper sources, precipitation and temperature observations, and ERA5 reanalysis data. Beyond the analysed case study, the main results indicate changes in the surface impacts associated with these events over recent decades. Overall, no increase in event frequency is detected, nor is there a robust signal of changes in atmospheric dynamics. However, analogue events in the recent period produce more precipitation, with an average increase of 9.4 mm per event compared to earlier-period analogues, and are warmer on average, mainly due to an increase in minimum temperature of 1.1 °C per event. These results point to changes in the characteristics of cold–wet compound extreme events under recent climate conditions.

Overall, this study highlights how integrating historical event reconstruction with circulation-analogue methods improves the understanding of compound extremes in the Mediterranean region. The results also illustrate how global warming is altering the surface impacts of these events, with relevant implications for flood risk and water resource management.