The Mediterranean Storm ‘Jolina’: Sensitivity to SST and Model configuration on Heavy Rainfall and Tropical-Like Development

In March 2026, storm Jolina developed over the central Mediterranean, producing severe weather conditions across southern Italy before moving on to Libya. During its evolution, the system transitioned from an extratropical cyclone toward a tropical-like structure, generating intense winds and heavy precipitation, particularly over Calabria.

In this work, Jolina is investigated through a set of numerical simulations performed with the WRF model to explore the sensitivity of storm evolution and precipitation patterns to different configurations and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions. Simulations are initialized and forced using ERA5 reanalysis, while high-resolution SST datasets from Copernicus are adopted to represent present-day Mediterranean thermal conditions alongside idealized warmer / cooler SST perturbation scenarios.

The analysis focuses on both the cyclone structure and the associated rainfall impacts over southern Italy. Storm evolution is examined using standard dynamical and thermodynamical diagnostics. Simulated precipitation fields, with a focus on southern Italy, are evaluated against satellite- and gauge-based observations.

The experiments are designed to assess how simulation strategies and SST conditions may modulate air–sea interaction, convective organization, and precipitation processes during the evolution of storm Jolina. Preliminary analyses suggest that SST perturbations may influence the spatial organization and local intensity of precipitation over southern Italy, while their role in modulating the overall storm evolution remains under investigation.