Fire Risk Assessment of Cultural Landscapes in Two Mediterranean Regions

Wildfire is becoming an increasingly critical threat to cultural heritage in the Mediterranean region under climate change, with impacts on both natural landscapes and the built cultural environment. Following the climate risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), this study develops an integrated methodology combining climatic and non-climatic factors to assess fire risk around cultural heritage sites in two Mediterranean regions: Lazio (Italy) and Attica (Greece). Twelve archaeological sites were selected according to their historical significance and proximity to urban and forested areas. The climate-related hazard is characterized using the Fire Weather Index (FWI), while exposure and vulnerability are represented through non-climatic factors including land cover, proximity to potential ignition sources, fuel type, and topographic slope. All variables were analysed within a GIS environment to assess and compare fire risk patterns across the study regions. The analysis considers both the reference climate period (1981–2010) and future climate conditions under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario (2041–2070), enabling the evaluation of potential future changes in fire risk affecting cultural heritage sites. In Attica, the highest fire risk is observed in areas characterized by high fuel loads and extensive vegetation cover, affecting sites such as Rhamnous, the Laurion mines, and the Temple of Aphaia on Aegina Island. In Lazio, elevated fire risk is primarily associated with dense forested environments in the Apennine and Tuscia regions, influencing sites including the Sacred Wood of Bomarzo, the Archaeological Area of San Giovenale, and the Banditaccia Necropolis. Overall, areas characterized by high fuel availability exhibit the highest fire risk in both regions, with risk levels projected to increase during the future period under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The proposed methodology offers a transferable framework for preventive fire risk assessment under current and future climate conditions and may support site-specific adaptation and cultural heritage protection strategies.