LAM-EPS Systems at AEMET: Evolution, Current Capabilities, and Future Perspectives

For over two decades, the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) has developed and operated Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems (LAM-EPS) to quantify forecast uncertainty and provide reliable predictability guidance for short-range high-impact weather events. Currently, the operational AEMET-γSREPS functions as a convection-permitting, multi-model, and multi-boundary condition ensemble. Deploying operational domains over the Iberian Peninsula, the Canary Islands, and the Antarctic Peninsula, this system supplies forecasters with a comprehensive suite of probabilistic products to assess diverse atmospheric scenarios and support adverse weather warning mechanisms. This presentation reviews the institutional trajectory of LAM-EPS at AEMET and outlines future strategic directions. Key upcoming milestones include the transition toward a single-model HarmonEPS system incorporating Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations (SPP), developed within the collaborative frameworks of ACCORD-EPS and UWC-South.