Monitoring Fine Fuel Moisture Content Using In-Situ Sensors for Wildfire Risk Assessment under Climate Change Conditions in Portugal

Climate change is increasing the frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts and heat waves across Mediterranean regions, contributing to more severe wildfire seasons. Portugal has experienced several extreme wildfire events in recent decades, highlighting the need for improved understanding of fuel moisture dynamics and their relationship with fire risk. This study presents a field-based monitoring approach using a network of in-situ sensors installed in Portugal to continuously measure Fine Fuel Moisture Content (FMC). The sensors record FMC (%) at 10-minute intervals, providing high-resolution information on fuel moisture variations under different meteorological conditions. The objective is to quantify the relationship between FMC dynamics and wildfire danger under increasingly frequent drought and heatwave conditions. Continuous monitoring allows the identification of critical moisture thresholds associated with increased fuel flammability and potential fire ignition. Preliminary observations indicate rapid decreases in FMC during prolonged drought periods and heatwave events, with fuel moisture reaching critical levels associated with increased fuel flammability and ignition potential.. The collected data are being analysed to characterize FMC variability, identify critical moisture thresholds, and assess the potential integration of FMC measurements into operational wildfire danger assessment systems.. The study further examines how projected climate change conditions may influence fuel moisture availability and contribute to increased wildfire danger and extreme fire behaviour in Mediterranean environments. The preliminary results highlight the value of real-time FMC monitoring for wildfire prevention, early warning systems, and decision support in fire management.. This approach contributes to a better understanding of climate-driven changes in fuel moisture dynamics and supports the development of adaptation strategies aimed at increasing the resilience of Mediterranean forest ecosystems to wildfire risk.