The Mediterranean Basin is typically classified as a region with decreasing streamflow and as a hotspot for future climate change, with important impacts on agricultural and ecosystem functioning. Here we present an assessment of past trends and future projections of water resources at the scale of the Mediterranean Basin. We evaluated how historical climate change, vegetation greening, and reservoir construction affected Mediterranean discharge trends, based on over a century of discharge trends (1914–2022) obtained from 654 discharge stations across the Mediterranean Basin. The results show that mean discharge trends align mostly with precipitation trends between 1921-2000, distinguishing periods of significant increasing (1941–1971) and decreasing discharge (1961–2000). However, between 1981 and 2020 the relationship between precipitation and mean discharge mostly diminishes. We show through multiple linear regression that precipitation and vegetation greenness have an equally strong but counteracting effect on runoff. Reservoir construction caused a reduction of the mean and maximum discharge. Furthermore, we assessed the impact of climate change on water resources, which is predominantly studied through the application of hydrological models forced by climate model output. Through a systematic review we analysed the results of 262 Mediterranean climate change assessments. We show that runoff is projected to decrease on average with 19%, with a stronger decrease towards the end of the century and with increasing emission scenarios (up to −39%). Similarly, soil moisture (−14%) and aquifer recharge (−21%) are also negatively affected by climate change, while irrigation demand is projected to increase (8%). While past trends were shown to be heavily affected by vegetation development and reservoir construction, most future hydrological assessments focus solely on the impact of climate change, neglecting vegetation development. This urges future studies to incorporate vegetation development and anthropogenic activities into these assessments, to obtain more accurate water resources projections, including possible feedbacks.
How to cite: Eekhout, J., Boutaghane, H., Dakhlaoui, H., El Khalki, E. M., Uysal, G., Vicente Serrano, S., Nunes, J., Tramblay, Y., and de Vente, J.: Past trends and future projections in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-74, 2026.
The Mediterranean region is considered one of the world’s primary climate change hotspots, where rising temperatures and declining precipitation are expected to intensify droughts and water scarcity. In Albania, the Seman River Basin is of major importance for irrigated agriculture, hydropower production, and regional water supply. This study investigates future hydrological changes in agricultural sub catchments of the Seman Basin using the WASA-SED hydrological model forced with EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections.
Eight EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations were evaluated against observed precipitation and temperature data for the period 1991–2020 using a multi-criteria ranking framework. The best-performing climate model combinations were selected, bias-corrected, and applied to six hydrological subcatchments characterized by contrasting elevations and land-use conditions under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the period 2021–2100.
Results indicate a robust decline in mean annual discharge across all sub catchments during the near future (2021–2050), with projected reductions ranging from 9% to 32% relative to the historical baseline. The most significant and consistent signal is the intensification of summer low-flow conditions, particularly in low-elevation agricultural catchments where irrigation demand is already increasing. High-elevation sub catchments show altered snowmelt dynamics and seasonal runoff redistribution. Long-term projections reveal divergence between emission scenarios: under RCP8.5, increased winter precipitation partially offsets annual runoff reductions in some sub catchments, while summer discharge remains substantially reduced in all scenarios.
The findings highlight the growing vulnerability of Mediterranean agricultural basins to climate-driven hydrological change and emphasize the need for adaptive water management strategies, including irrigation modernization, drought preparedness, and improved reservoir management. This research provides one of the first sub catchment-scale climate-hydrological assessments for Albania and demonstrates the applicability of the WASA-SED model for climate impact studies in data-sparse Mediterranean environments.
How to cite: Doko, A., Kirby, O., and Bronstert, A.: Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability in Mediterranean Balkan River Basins: A Case Study of the Seman River Basin, Albania, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-38, 2026.
Climate change and more frequent weather extremes are degrading soils faster than most land management frameworks anticipated. Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall disrupt the biochemical and physical processes that keep soils functional: accelerating organic matter loss, nutrient depletion, and salinization across regions that produce much of the world's food. This study tracks how soil properties have changed over the past four decades and estimates what those changes mean for crop yields, combining digital soil mapping, climate warming scenarios, and econometric production models. The first component builds on the HUMERIS framework, using Google Earth Engine and Random Forest algorithms to reconstruct annual dynamics (1985–2023) for organic carbon (OC), nitrogen (N), pH, and electrical conductivity (ECe). Historical trends diverge sharply by land use. High-latitude regions show climate-driven accumulation of OC and N. Areas converted from natural ecosystems to cropland show a consistent relative decline of roughly −0.2% per year in those properties. The pattern is clear: agricultural conversion erodes the soil properties that sustain long-term fertility. The second component projects forward. Applying HUMERIS under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios from CMIP6, the model predicts substantial OC losses across mid-latitude regions and subpolar peatlands, where higher sustained temperatures accelerate organic matter decomposition. Salinization expands across arid and semi-arid zones (the Mediterranean Basin and Australia especially) as lower rainfall and stronger evapotranspiration drive salt accumulation in topsoil layers. To put numbers on the agricultural consequences, projected soil properties were fed into a Cobb-Douglas production function estimated for maize, wheat, rice, and soybean, controlling for labor, capital, fertilizer, and irrigation. The results indicate a production-weighted global yield decline of 1.0% under +2°C, rising non-linearly to 3.8% under +4°C. Most of the damage is concentrated in temperate mid-latitude systems, where the absolute loss of historical OC stocks is largest. Taken together, the findings suggest that climate change is not just warming the planet, it is quietly relocating its most productive agricultural land. This work provides a quantified link between soil degradation and yield loss that can inform where land protection and soil management investments are most urgent.
How to cite: Dalle Vaglie, M. and Martellozzo, F.: Mapping Decadal Soil Dynamics and Projecting Climate-Driven Degradation Impacts on Global Agricultural Yields: The HUMERIS Framework, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-55, 2026.
Climate change is progressively reducing winter chill accumulation in temperate regions, posing a critical threat to the sustainability of stone fruit production systems. In Mediterranean and semi-arid areas, substantial declines in chill portions are projected in warming scenarios, particularly in traditionally productive zones, compromising the complete fulfillment of chilling requirements (CR) and thus affecting flowering phenology, fruit set, and yield stability. This challenge requires rapid adaptive strategies capable of maintaining crop productivity under increasingly mild winters. In this context, spontaneous somatic mutants (“bud sports”) may represent a valuable yet underexploited genetic resource for climate adaptation. These naturally occurring variants can exhibit altered phenological traits without the need for long-lasting breeding programs. A representative example is ‘Búlida Precoz’, an apricot mutant derived from the widely cultivated ‘Búlida’. ‘Búlida Precoz’ shows a significant reduction in chilling requirements (33.7 vs. 47.5 chill portions, a 29% reduction) and advances flowering by approximately 17 days as compared to ‘Búlida’. From an agroclimatic perspective, the incorporation of such new low-chill alleles into breeding programs has the potential to significantly expand the spatial and temporal suitability of fruit production. Climate projections for Spain indicate that areas currently marginal for high-chill cultivars may remain viable only for genotypes with reduced CR, particularly under pessimistic, high-emission, warming scenarios (RCP8.5), where chill accumulation declines sharply across Mediterranean environments. Here, we apply this agroclimatic framework to the 'Búlida' / 'Búlida Precoz' pair, mapping where the low-chill mutant would still satisfy its CR while the parental cultivar would not. Thus, the deployment of low-chill mutants could enable the maintenance, or even extension, of cultivation areas by aligning genotype requirements with future climatic conditions.
This work highlights the synergistic value of integrating genomics and agroclimatic modeling to address climate-driven constraints in temperate fruit crops. Specifically, it illustrates how the identification and utilization of novel alleles derived from bud-sport mutants can provide an efficient pathway for rapid adaptation to low-chill winters. Finally, these findings support the development of climate-resilient ideotypes and contribute to safeguarding the productivity and economic viability of fruit agroecosystems under current climate change.
How to cite: Campoy, J. A., Egea, J. A., Ruiz, D., and González-Palazón, D.: Leveraging bud sport–derived low-chill alleles to sustain Mediterranean stone fruit production under warming winters, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-105, 2026.
General models predict an increased risk of extinction for various Mediterranean species, particularly those with fragmented populations or restricted distributions. Large-scale models offer an overview of the species that could be affected by climate change, but local or regional scale models are needed. These allow for higher spatial resolutions and the inclusion of local factors, which can significantly influence the actual effects of climate change, especially on populations located near the edges of a species' distribution.
For Testudo graeca, we present the results at different spatial scales (Mediterranean and Southeastern Spain) and using different levels of information. In southeastern Spain, GLM methods were applied to develop presence/absence and abundance models, which were then used to project distribution and abundance under high-resolution (10 km cell) climate scenarios.
The results highlight the need for local-regional models and suggest that more detailed information (abundance) could better represent species' responses during the transition to the future climate, particularly for long-lived species like T. graeca. Overall, the results point to a loss of potential habitat and abundance in the current area of Southeastern Spain, posing a significant challenge for the conservation of a species with limited expansion capacity, like T. graeca.
The research has also revealed divergent results depending on the quality of information that is used. High quality information (high spatial resolution, inclusion of local factors, high quality species information as abundance) is basic to get robust and reliable results to identify priority areas for mid-term monitoring, assessment of extreme events impacts and active conservation measures for the species. High quality information is, therefore, essential for the management and conservation of species under climate change.
How to cite: Martínez-Fernández, J. and Esteve-Selma, M. A.: Challenges for the conservation of Mediterranean vulnerable species under climate change. The case of Testudo graeca, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-69, 2026.
Climate change is expected to alter resource availability, vegetation dynamics, and environmental conditions across Mediterranean ecosystems, with potentially important consequences for agriculture, and particularly for extensive livestock systems. Understanding how environmental conditions influence livestock movement in their occupied ecosystems is therefore essential for predicting the responses of grazing systems to increasing climatic variability and extreme events. We investigated the effects of climate and productivity, land use, and topography on the spatial behaviour of extensive cattle and sheep, at two temporal scales, across the Iberian Peninsula, one of Europe’s most climate-vulnerable Mediterranean regions. We collected GPS data between 2018 and 2024 (total of 16,474,709 locations) from 263 cattle and 702 sheep herds distributed across different climatic conditions (Arid, Temperate and Cold regions). These herds occupied 45.7% of the peninsular territory (2.7x105 km2), distributed throughout 40 Spanish and 3 Portuguese provinces/districts. We estimated annual home range size and daily travelled distance of tracked herds. Generalized linear mixed models and variation partitioning analyses were used to identify the main environmental drivers of livestock movement. Our results indicate that environmental drivers differed markedly between temporal scales. At the annual scale, climate and grassland productivity emerged as the dominant drivers of home range size, explaining the largest unique fraction of variation in both cattle (31.8%) and sheep (24.0%). Home ranges generally decreased as rainfall increases and more productive conditions, indicating that greater resource availability reduces the need for extensive movements. These results suggest that future shifts in precipitation regimes, drought frequency, and vegetation productivity may substantially modify livestock space use. Land-use effects were comparatively weaker, although managed pastures consistently reduced home range requirements. At the daily scale, topography was the main determinant of movement distances, explaining the largest proportion of variation in both cattle (16.1%) and sheep (9.8%). Nevertheless, climatic variables also showed significant non-linear effects, with precipitation and temperature influencing daily displacements in both livestock species. Accumulated rainfall during the previous month was negatively associated with daily movement distances, highlighting the importance of short-term environmental conditions and forage availability. Artificial land cover increased daily movement, whereas agricultural areas generally reduced it. Our findings reveal that extensive livestock movement is highly sensitive to climatic and productivity gradients, particularly at broader spatial scales. In Mediterranean regions, where climate change is expected to intensify droughts and alter vegetation phenology, these responses may reshape grazing patterns, resource use, and ecosystem functioning. By linking large-scale livestock tracking data with environmental drivers, this study provides new evidence of how climate change may affect both agricultural systems and the ecological processes mediated by domestic herbivores, supporting the development of adaptive management strategies for Mediterranean landscapes.
How to cite: Pascual Rico, R., Fernández Gómez, L., Pérez García, J. M., Anadón, J. D., de la Cruz Amo, L., Navez Alegre, L., Acevedo, P., Sánchez Zapata, J. A., and M. Barbosa, J.: Extensive livestock farming movement under climate change, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-110, 2026.
Coastal areas are particularly complex due to their high vulnerability to the growing risks of climate change and the interplay of multiple interactions between land and marine environments. However, resilient solutions are rarely systemically implemented, that is, encompassing the socio-ecological system as a whole. The Mar Menor coastal lagoon (Murcia, Southeastern Spain) constitutes an emblematic example of how climatic risks interact with unsustainable manament and lack of governance to cause dramatic and long-lasting ecological impacts with also important social and economic consequences. A series of measures have been planned and partially implemented since the eutrophic crisis of Mar Menor lagoon in 2016 but, despite some improvements, important gaps remain for an integral, adaptive and sustainable management of the lagoon and its watershed. The Coastscapes projec (Rethinking coastal landscapes with climate-resilient interventions: systemic land-to-sea solutions), an Horizon Europe demonstration project in which the Mar Menor site is one of the three core pilot sites.
Coastscapes project, coordinated by the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, involves 31 entities from the academic, business, technological, and environmental sectors across 15 different countries. The goal of Coast-Scapes is to rethink the management of coastal landscapes (deltas, coastal lagoons, bays...) to promote resilience, biodiversity benefits, and risk reduction in the face of climate change. Using a systemic perspective and a transdisciplinary and intersectoral approach, comprehensive solutions will be designed and evaluated in a collaborative and participatory manner. Available data, indicators, dynamic models, Nature-based Solutions, early warning and climate systems, and economic analyses based on the best available knowledge will be used.
In Mar Menor case, climate change may increase several risks affecting the system: The increase in big rainfall events and floods, as well the increase in temperatures will facilitate the occurrence of eutrophication processes and anoxia events. The increase in temperatures may also cause the death of the Caulerpa prolifera meadows, generating massive death events. Climate change can make irrigated lands more vulnerable to droughts and even more dependent on groundwater bodies, already declared “at risk” of non-compliance with the environmental objectives in Mar Menor site, due to groundwater overexploitation and pollution.
In the framework of Coastscapes project, the effectiveness of actual and planned measures in the watershed and in the lagoon will be assessed and support will be provided to initiatives in the agricultural sector, particulary for non-irrigated agriculture, that are climatically resilient, compatible with the ecological recovery of the lagoon and have also added social values.
How to cite: Martínez-Fernández, J., Esteve-Selma, M. A., and García-Ortiz, E.: Climatic resilience in coastal areas. The Coastscapes approach, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-70, 2026.
Mediterranean vineyards are increasingly exposed to climate-related stressors including droughts, heatwaves, increasing water scarcity, and extreme weather events that threaten agricultural productivity and long-term rural resilience. Agrivoltaic systems have emerged as a potential adaptation strategy capable of simultaneously generating renewable electricity while maintaining agricultural activity. However, the environmental and social implications of these systems remain insufficiently explored, particularly for Mediterranean viticulture.
This work presents a multi-level environmental and social life cycle assessment framework for vertical agrivoltaic vineyard systems under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions, using pilot installations located in Yecla (southeastern Spain). The study evaluates innovative lightweight vertical photovoltaic support structures designed to reduce material consumption and improve integration within vineyard rows.
The assessment combines two complementary levels of analysis. First, a comparative environmental life cycle assessment evaluates the structural systems considering material extraction, manufacturing, transport, installation, maintenance, and end-of-life stages. Second, the operational performance of the agrivoltaic systems is explored through the joint assessment of electricity generation and grape production, addressing the multifunctionality challenge inherent to agrivoltaics through allocation and system expansion approaches.
Preliminary findings suggest that lightweight vertical agrivoltaic configurations may reduce structural material demand while contributing to multifunctional land use and climate adaptation in viticulture. The proposed framework contributes to the development of holistic assessment methodologies for resilient Mediterranean agroecosystems under increasing climate pressure.
How to cite: Espinosa, N., Padilla Martínez, J., Aguayo Giménez, E., Serrano-Luján, L., Miras Cabrera, B., and Rasines, L.: Vertical agrivoltaics for climate adaptation in Mediterranean vineyards: a life cycle assessment, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-46, 2026.
Spain is the world’s second-largest producer of stone fruits (peach, plum, cherry, and apricot) after China, with a total production of approximately 1.8 million tons in 2024 (FAOSTAT, 2024). The viability of these crops is highly dependent on climatic conditions, particularly temperature, as they undergo a period of winter dormancy that is broken by exposure to sufficiently cold conditions (chill accumulation). The chilling requirement needed to release dormancy is cultivar-dependent, and inadequate chill accumulation can lead to significant production losses, with consequent economic impacts for growers.
In addition to chill accumulation, other temperature-related agroclimatic metrics are critical for the proper development of these crops, including frost risk and the occurrence of heat extremes during sensitive phenological stages. Ongoing climate warming is expected to significantly alter these metrics, potentially compromising the suitability of some current production areas, especially in warmer regions.
Quantifying future changes in these agroclimatic indicators is therefore essential to anticipate potential impacts and support adaptation strategies, such as cultivar replacement or the relocation of production areas to regions with lower climatic risk. In this study, we quantify projected changes in key agroclimatic metrics over the coming decades using IPCC AR6 projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, thereby updating and refining previous assessments based on AR5.
The analysis is based on hourly temperature observations from 270 weather stations located in major stone fruit production regions in Spain, covering the period up to 2020. In addition, study areas are spatially extended using interpolation techniques that have proven to perform best for accumulated chill estimation, enabling the identification of nearby areas with potentially lower risk in case of future shifts in production.
The results presented here provide a robust decision-support framework for planning future stone fruit cultivation and other temperate crops in Spain under changing climatic conditions.
How to cite: Egea, J. A., Delgado, Á., Caro, M., López-Morales, J. A., and Ruiz, D.: Agroclimatic Metrics to support decision-making in stone fruit cultivation in Spain: Updates Incorporating AR6 Scenarios and Improved Spatial Interpolation, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-80, 2026.
