We used the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis to analyze changes in the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) over Europe from 1940 to 2023, separate the contributions of its meteorological drivers, and map heat vulnerability at NUTS-2 level. The Mediterranean is the region where the signal is clearest: it has warmed quickly, and the bioclimatic and health consequences are now measurable over decades. Across the continent, cold-stress hours decrese fastest in the north (more than 4 h decade-1), while heat-stress hours increase across southern Europe (more than 3 h decade-1). In the Mediterranean, the annual heat-stress total already exceeds 670 h, roughly four weeks per year, and is increasing by 4–6 h yr-1. A one-at-a-time perturbation between 1940–1960 and 2003–2023 attributes most of the rise to 2 m air temperature and mean radiant temperature. At the city scale we analyze 118 cities from 42 European countries. Athens, Seville and Antalya already see 750–1,000 heat-stress hours per year, with trends of 3–4 h yr-1. A Heat Vulnerability Index was developed that combines heat stress exposure with the population aged 65 and over, population share at risk of poverty, the share of outdoor workers, and GDP per capita as a proxy for adaptive capacity. The index showed values above 0.5 across southern Spain, southern Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, and above 0.6 in several NUTS-2 regions. The regions where heat exposure is rising fastest are also the regions with the low adaptive capacity, which makes Mediterranean heat a socio-economic problem as well as a meteorological one. That points to two complementary policy directions: urban cooling and green infrastructure on the climate side, and occupational heat-safety rules and heat-health warnings on the public-health side, with older and lower-income residents as the priority group.
How to cite: Antonescu, B., Mărmuranu, L., Ene, D., Andrei, S., and Turcu, R.: Heat stress in the Mediterranean, 1940–2023: trends, drivers and vulnerability, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-35, 2026.
Extreme heat and urban heat island effects increasingly influence outdoor thermal conditions in urban areas during the summer season. Children represent one of the most vulnerable population groups due to frequent outdoor exposure during educational, recreational, and sports activities in schoolyards.
The aim of this study is to investigate micrometeorological conditions and heat exposure in schoolyards within the Belgrade urban area during the warm part of the year. Preliminary measurements are being conducted in two primary schoolyards located in different urban environments. Measurements include sun-exposed and shaded locations, as well as different surface types within each schoolyard, in order to investigate spatial variability of thermal conditions and heat exposure across different micro-locations.
The selected schools were analyzed according to the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) framework, enabling comparison of thermal conditions across different urban morphologies. The research focuses on the influence of vegetation cover, shading conditions, and surface characteristics on heat exposure and outdoor thermal conditions. Particular attention is given to the identification of potentially vulnerable micro-locations within schoolyards.
The results are expected to contribute a better understanding of urban heat exposure in school environments and support future climate adaptation strategies in urban areas.
Key words: urban heat stress, schoolyards, micrometeorological measurements, LCZ, urban bioclimatology
How to cite: Pecelj, M. and Malinovic-Milicevic, S.: Assessment of Heat Stress in Schoolyards in Belgrade (Serbia) Using Micrometeorological Measurements, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-43, 2026.
The relation between atmospheric parameters and glycaemic patterns is a topic of clinical relevance, which needs to be deeply analysed in order to understand the feedback of patients to different environmental condition and therapy. In this context, the results of the project "Innovation Ecosystem: innovation, digitalisation and sustainability for the widespread economy in central Italy (VITALITY)", funded by NextGenerationEU, made it possible to assess how glycaemic trends in diabetic patients respond to external temperatures, humidity and Humidex. In this study analyses performed on both almost 200,000 patients with type 2 diabetes, followed at the Lanciano-Vasto-Chieti (Abruzzo, Italy) Local Health Authority, and on 219 patients with type 1 diabetes followed at the UOSD Regional Paediatric Diabetes Service Hospital, ‘SS. Annunziata’ Hospital, are included. The effect of climate change on diabetic patients was evaluated through correlation studies and multivariate analyses. Atmospheric temperature, humidity and Humidex were assessed with respect to blood glucose patterns both on the entire sample of patients (approximately 200,000 subjects), over 5 years (2019-2023), and on precision basis, following a subset of approximately 50 patients with type 2 diabetes, intensively for one week during 2025. At the same time, the analysis over a period of one year (Autumn 2022 - Summer 2023) on 219 patients with type 1 diabetes, was carried out evaluating glycaemic trends and outdoor temperatures [1,2]. The results point out a strong correlation between environmental conditions and blood glucose levels at every stage of the analysis, highlighting the importance of taking such parameters into account when studying chronic diseases such as diabetes.
[1] Mascitelli, A.; Tumini, S.; Chiacchiaretta, P.; Aruffo, E.; Sacrini, L.; Saltarelli, M.A.; Di Carlo, P. Effect of Atmospheric Temperature Variations on Glycemic Patterns of Patients with Type 1 Diabetes: Analysis as a Function of Different Therapeutic Treatments. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2025, 22, 1850. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22121850
[2] Chiacchiaretta, P.; Tumini, S.; Mascitelli, A.; Sacrini, L.; Saltarelli, M.A.; Carabotta, M.; Osmelli, J.; Di Carlo, P.; Aruffo, E. The Impact of Atmospheric Temperature Variations on Glycaemic Patterns in Children and Young Adults with Type 1 Diabetes. Climate 2024, 12, 121. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080121
How to cite: Mascitelli, A., Chiacchiaretta, P., Staropoli, M. C., Aruffo, E., Tumini, S., Ferretti, A., Franciotti, R., Zhang, N., and Di Carlo, P.: The VITALITY Project: an analysis of the impact of climate change on diabetic patients in a region of central Italy (Abruzzo, Italy), 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-19, 2026.
The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world most exposed to the joint pressure of rising temperatures and persistent tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution. Heatwaves (HW), atmospheric stagnation (STG) and their compound occurrence (CE) are known to influence both pollutant accumulation and human vulnerability. However, the share of the population health burden that can be attributed specifically to each type of day, and to their compound occurrence, has not yet been quantified in a consistent way across the basin.
A high-resolution, end-to-end attribution framework for tropospheric (O3) and PM₂.₅ mortality is presented under mutually exclusive daily event categories (no-event, HW-only, STG-only and CE) over the Mediterranean basin for the period 2013-2025. Air-quality fields are taken from the CAMS European reanalysis; meteorology from ERA5. HW are defined as maximum temperature exceeding the day-of-year 90th percentile climatology for at least four consecutive days, and STG follows the Wang and Angell (1999) wind and precipitation thresholds. Concentration-response functions include a log-linear model, two non-linear alternatives (saturating and supralinear-log) and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM,) for PM2.5. Population fields are derived from the GHSL GHS-POP R2023A product and merged with Eurostat NUTS-3 demographics. Baseline mortality rates combine Eurostat NUTS-3 records with UN World Population Prospects 2024 single-age data, so that countries outside the European Union are also covered.
Over the wide Mediterranean (around 125 million inhabitants), O3 concentrations on CE days reach 102 µg m-3 (+38 % above no-event days), with annual O3-attributable premature deaths estimated at 2,500 (95 % CI 660–3,630) on CE days, versus 900 (95 % CI 240–1,320) on HW-only days and 820 (95 % CI 180–1,260) on STG-only days. The Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI), which quantifies whether the joint health effect of heatwaves and stagnation exceeds the sum of their individual effects on an additive risk scale, and the Non-Linear Response Effect (NLRE; Gao et al., 2020), which measures whether pollutant concentrations during CE depart from a linear addition of the HW-only and STG-only responses, displayed heterogeneous spatial patterns. Nonetheless, a localised super-additive behaviour was found over densely populated zones, with positive interaction values over 39% of grid cells in the Mediterranean region, implying that these local hotspots suffer strongly enhanced CE impacts. Alternative temporal definitions of CE further showed that the estimated burden is sensitive to how synchrony between HW and STG is defined: allowing STG to occur within ±1 or ±3 days of a HW increased CE day counts by factors of 1.22 and 1.32, respectively, and raised O₃-attributable mortality from 2,500 deaths yr⁻¹ under the same-day definition to 3,200 and 3,440 deaths yr⁻¹. These results provide a quantitative and reproducible baseline for compound heat-pollution risk in the Mediterranean, and support the design of integrated heat and air-quality early-warning systems for the region.
How to cite: Jimenez-Guerrero, P., Espinosa, N., Gil-Guirado, S., Jerez, S., Montávez, J. P., and Turco, M.: Compound heatwave-stagnation episodes amplify tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter attributable mortality across the Mediterranean, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-98, 2026.
Numerous studies have demonstrated the impacts of extreme meteorological events and air pollution on public health. Nonetheless, only a few consider the synergy of both factors (compound events) when analysing mortality rates from an atmospheric perspective. This work aims to establish connections between mortality excesses in mainland Spain during wintertime, extreme atmospheric events, and the circulation patterns involved in these episodes. For that, daily mortality rate data at a provincial level are used for the 2015-2022 period.
Winter mortality extremes were categorised and associated with preceding circulation types (CTs), based on sea-level pressure (SLP), temperature at 850 mb, and geopotential height at 500 mb. This classification uses daily average fields derived from ERA5 reanalysis over a domain covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. This classification uses daily average fields derived from ERA5 reanalysis over a domain covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. For each resulting CT, mean fields of temperature, NO2, and PM10 were computed using CAMS reanalysis data. The results show that most mortality extremes succeed extreme atmospheric conditions, with a time lag that depends on the location and variable considered. The variables that better explain mortality include maximum and minimum temperature, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM10), and their combinations. Their influences from previous days are significant for more than half of the cases, especially when the compound event comprising extreme minimum temperature followed by high levels of NO2 occurs, with a median lag of about one week.
Regarding the circulation patterns, the results show that most cases of high mortality are linked to anticyclonic systems and warm temperatures at high levels, which can lead to very cold conditions at the ground level and contribute to air stagnation. The situation is exacerbated with the concatenation of CTs related to cold conditions. Extreme mortality occurs when CTs associated with high NO2 levels join persistent low temperatures. This phenomenon may impact multiple provinces simultaneously or within a short timeframe, suggesting that early warning systems should consider these events to alert vulnerable populations and prevent nationwide high mortality rates.
How to cite: Garnés-Morales, G., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Gil-Guirado, S., García-Fernández, E., Raluy-López, E., Segado-Moreno, L. C., and Montávez, J. P.: Circulation Patterns of Compound Atmospheric Events Associated with Wintertime Mortality Excess in Mainland Spain, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-94, 2026.
While overall the global warming with the causes and global processes connected to well-mixed CO2, and its impacts on global to continental scales are well understood with a high level of confidence, there are knowledge gaps concerning the impact of many other non-CO2 radiative forcers leading to low confidence in the conclusions. This relates mainly to specific anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions of short-lived GHGs and aerosols and their precursors. These gaps and uncertainties also exist in their subsequent effects on atmospheric chemistry and climate, through direct emissions dependent on changes in e.g., agriculture production and technologies based on scenarios for future development as well as feedbacks of global warming on emissions, e.g., permafrost thaw.
The main goal of EC HE project FOCI, is to assess impacts of key radiative forcers and the processes of their impact on the climate system, to find and test an efficient implementation of these processes into global ESMs and into RCMs coupled with CTMs, and finally to use the tools developed to investigate mitigation and/or adaptation policies incorporated in selected scenarios of future development targeted at Europe and other regions of the world. We are developing new regionally tuned scenarios based on improved emissions to assess the effects of non-CO2 forcers.
Overall introduction to coupled RCM-CTM modelling experiment strategies and evaluation simulations will be presented in addition to the contemporary status of the project. Historical simulations results are validated against reanalyses data and the assessment of impact of chemistry involvement is shown. We will show the results for regional and local conditions in high resolution for City of Prague. Future scenario (SSP3-7.0) is running for full and low NTCF to provide the comparison and effects of these non-CO2 forcers in future, while in historical validation full chemistry simulation is compared to run without chemistry.
Acknowledgement: Project FOCI (Non-CO2 Forcers and Their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts), has been co-funded by the European Union with funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Action under grant agreement No. 101056783 and from UKRI under the UK Government’s Horizon Europe Guarantee (UKRI Reference Numbers: 10040465, 10053814 and 10050799).
How to cite: Halenka, T., Sokhi, R., Finardi, S., and Machado-Crespo, N.: Chemistry – Climate Interactions over Scales: Project FOCI - Non-CO2 Forcers and Their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts , 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-130, 2026.
Urban areas modify the exchanges of energy, moisture, and momentum between the surface and the atmosphere through the combined effects of materials, urban morphology, and anthropogenic emissions. These modifications influence both local meteorological conditions and air quality, generating a complex system of interactions. While urban climate affects the transport, dispersion, and accumulation of atmospheric pollutants, air pollution can also alter radiative processes and influence local meteorology, leading to a coupled atmosphere–chemistry system.
This study investigates the interactions between urban climate and air quality over the metropolitan areas of Madrid and Murcia (Spain) using the WRF-Chem model. A set of high-resolution simulations was performed employing a one-way nested configuration, with an outer domain covering the Iberian Peninsula and two inner domains centered on the target cities. Pollutant emissions were represented using a high-resolution downscaled inventory that resolves major emission sources, including road networks, industrial areas, airports, and agricultural land uses. Four main experiment families were considered: rural and urban configurations, each with and without atmospheric chemistry. Additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the impact of emission strength and urban representation.
The experimental framework allows assessment of both the influence of urban processes on pollutant distributions and the impact of atmospheric composition on urban meteorology. Particular attention is paid to the role of urban canopy models in shaping near-surface thermal patterns and local circulations, as well as to the extent to which urban-induced meteorological modifications affect air-quality conditions across the metropolitan area.
The results highlight the interactions between urban climate and atmospheric chemistry and emphasize the importance of realistically representing urban morphology and emissions in coupled modeling systems.
Acknowledgments: The authors acknowledge the ARUBA project (PID2023-149080OB-I00/MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Spain & FEDER, EU), and the INSIEME project (FSRM/10.13039/100007801). ERL thanks her predoctoral contract FPU (FPU21/02464) to the Ministerio de Universidades of Spain.
How to cite: Raluy-López, E., Segado-Moreno, L., Cordero, A., and Montávez, J. P.: Urban climate and air quality feedbacks: a high-resolution WRF-Chem study, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-72, 2026.
Cities play fundamental role in climate at local to regional scales through modification of heat and moisture fluxes, as well as affecting local atmospheric chemistry and composition, alongside air-pollution dispersion. Vice versa, regional climate change impacts urban areas and will affect cities and citizens increasingly in the next decades when the population in urban areas is growing projected to reach 70 % by 2050. This is critical in connection to extreme events, e.g. heat waves with extremely high temperatures exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, in particular during night-time, with significant consequences for human health.
Recent RCM development achieved resolution of city scales within convection permitting RCMs, parameterization of urban processes thus becomes more important. From the framework of CORDEX FPS, main aims and progress of FPS URB-RCC will be presented, from the results based on previous available simulations to the results of analysis of Stage-0 experiments using case studies of heat wave, within ensemble of about 40 simulations for Paris with CP RCMs. This experiment shows the effects of different implementation of urban parameterizations as well as of the different models and their settings on urban heat island under the heat wave. Further outlook of long term (10 years – Stage 1 experiment) climate simulation with these models in common strategy of IMPETUS4CHANGE Horizon Europe Project will be presented. The development of Global Satellite Cities experiment with similar experiments for other big cities around the world will be introduced as another part of Stage 1 experiment. Clear emphasis is given to urban heat island, with possibility to compare the signal for different types of megacities.
Acknowledgement: Project I4C (Impetus4Change), has been funded by the European Union with funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Action under grant agreement No. 101081555.
How to cite: Halenka, T., Langendijk, G., Hoffmann, P., Belda, M., and Machado-Crespo, N.: CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study URB-RCC: Urban Environments and Regional Climate Change, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-132, 2026.
Microplastics (MPs) have emerged as an atmospheric contaminant of growing concern due to their widespread presence, long-range transport potential, and possible impacts on human health and ecosystems. While numerous studies have investigated airborne MPs in urban and remote environments, the contribution of wildfires to atmospheric MP emissions remains largely unexplored. Vegetation, soils, litter, and anthropogenic materials accumulated in forested areas can contain substantial amounts of plastic particles, which may be released into the atmosphere during combustion processes.
This work presents a preliminary assessment of the atmospheric transport and distribution of wildfire-derived microplastics over Portugal using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). A novel emission database for MPs released by biomass burning was developed based on available literature, emission factor estimates, wildfire inventories, and assumptions regarding the plastic content of combustible fuels. MPs were represented as inert particulate matter and incorporated into the modelling framework as a passive tracer to investigate their transport pathways and atmospheric fate.
The model was applied to selected wildfire episodes in Portugal, with particular emphasis on large fire events characterised by intense smoke emissions and regional-scale atmospheric transport. Simulations were used to quantify the spatial and temporal evolution of airborne MPs concentrations, identify source-receptor relationships, and evaluate the potential for long-range transport beyond the affected regions.
The results indicate that wildfire emissions can generate detectable MP plumes extending hundreds of kilometres from the source areas under favourable meteorological conditions. Elevated concentrations were found not only in the vicinity of the fires but also in downwind urban and rural regions, highlighting the role of atmospheric transport in redistributing MPs across large spatial scales.
The study demonstrates the feasibility of incorporating MPs into chemistry transport models, and provides a first step towards understanding the contribution of extreme events to atmospheric MP concentrations. Future work will focus on refining emission estimates, improving the representation of MP physicochemical properties and deposition processes, and evaluating simulations against field measurements collected within the framework of the PlasURE project. These developments will contribute to a more comprehensive assessment of the environmental and health implications of airborne MPs under present and future climate conditions.
Acknowledgments: This work was supported by: (i) national funds through FCT/MECI: LEPABE, UID/00511/2025 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/00511/2025) and UID/PRR/00511/2025 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/00511/2025) and ALiCE, LA/P/0045/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0045/2020); (ii) COMPETE 2030, Portugal 2030, and the European Union, within project PlasURE - Impact of airborne microplastics: urban and rural environments and extreme events, with number 16721 and operation code at the Funds Platform COMPETE2030-FEDER-00790200; (III) the ARUBA project (PID2023-149080OB-I00/MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Spain & FEDER, EU); (IV) and project INSIEME (FSRM/10.13039/100007801).
How to cite: Segado-Moreno, L., Ratola, N., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Montávez, J. P.: Wildfires as an emerging source of microplastics: transport and regional impacts over Portugal, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-71, 2026.
This work has received the support by POSAHPI-2 (PID2022-143146OB-I00), SNOWDUST (TED2021-130114B-I00) and PYRENEES4CLIMA (LIFE-2022-STRAT 101104957). Thanks to AEMET for their support and facilities.
How to cite: Pey, J., Bandrés, J., López-Moreno, J. I., and Valero-Garcés, B. L.: Long-Range Aerosol Transport to the Central Pyrenees: Impacts of Wildfire Smoke, Saharan Dust and Climate-Driven Events, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-50, 2026.
Air pollution is a major environmental determinant of human health, and evidence suggests that chronic exposure to atmospheric pollutants may influence breast cancer risk. This is relevant in the Mediterranean region, where urban emissions, industrial sources, regional transport, Saharan dust intrusions and climate-related stressors create a complex exposure scenario. However, air quality indicators are rarely incorporated into malignancy prediction models. This study assessed whether long-term exposure estimates derived from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis data could provide complementary information for breast lesion malignancy stratification in a Mediterranean screening population. We retrospectively analysed mammographic and clinical data from 906 women undergoing breast cancer screening. Lesions were classified as benign (BI-RADS B2) or malignant (BI-RADS B5). Residential zip codes were linked to CAMS gridded concentration fields to estimate individual exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀) and ozone (O₃). For each pollutant, annual mean concentrations and cumulative exposure over the three years preceding diagnosis were calculated. These environmental metrics were integrated with demographic information and mammographic descriptors, including lesion morphology, margins and breast density patterns. To reduce model complexity and limit overfitting, variables were screened using univariate ANOVA F-tests, retaining predictors with p < 0.05. Selected features were then used to train a feed-forward neural network for classification. Performance was evaluated on validation data and compared with models excluding environmental exposure variables. Correlations among pollutants were examined to assess collinearity and confounding. The integrated model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.78, with balanced accuracy and weighted F1-score equal to 0.73. Radiological features remained the strongest predictors of malignancy, particularly spiculated margins and irregular lesion shape. Nevertheless, cumulative NO₂ and PM₂.₅ exposure retained independent statistical significance and contributed to model discrimination. Removing highly correlated air quality variables reduced apparent predictive gain but improved model stability and interpretability, highlighting the need for cautious exposure selection in observational environmental health studies. These findings suggest that long-term air pollution exposure, quantified through CAMS atmospheric reanalysis products, may provide a modest but consistent contribution to breast lesion malignancy prediction when combined with mammographic features. Although no causal inference can be drawn, the study supports the feasibility of integrating atmospheric composition data, medical imaging and machine learning within a transdisciplinary environmental health framework. Larger cohorts, finer geocoding and external validation are needed to confirm these associations.
References
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[2] Praud D, Deygas F, Amadou A, Bouilly M, Turati F, Bravi F, et al. Traffic-related air pollution and breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Cancers. 2023;15(3):927. doi:10.3390/cancers15030927.
[3] Inness A, Ades M, Agustí-Panareda A, Barré J, Benedictow A, Blechschmidt AM, et al. The CAMS reanalysis of atmospheric composition. Atmos Chem Phys. 2019;19:3515-3556. doi:10.5194/acp-19-3515-2019.
[4] Fiore M, Palella M, Ferroni E, Miligi L, Portaluri M, Marchese CA, et al. Air pollution and breast cancer risk: an umbrella review. Environments. 2025;12:289. doi:10.3390/environments12050153.
How to cite: Chiacchiaretta, P., Dotta, F., Staropoli, M. C., Aruffo, E., Mascitelli, A., Sallese, I., Delli Pizzi, A., and Di Carlo, P.: Air Quality and Breast Malignancy Risk Stratification in the Mediterranean: Integrating Copernicus Reanalysis Data with Mammographic Feature, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-23, 2026.
As West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics in Europe are increasingly reshaped by climatic forcing, understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of infection risk is paramount for public health preparedness. This study employs a dual-methodological framework to assess WNV transmission potential under historical (2010–2024) and future (2061–2090) climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We apply two distinct approaches: empirical statistical evidence derived from Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNM) and mechanistic insights from the bioclimatic suitability metric, Index-P.
Our analysis reveals a pronounced latitudinal shift in WNV infection risk, characterized by significant westward expansion and intensification across Western and Central-Eastern Europe. This trend signifies that temperate regions, previously considered marginal for WNV, are now transitioning into high-risk zones due to increasingly favorable bioclimatic conditions. Conversely, Southern Europe transitions toward a state of 'thermal saturation, while it remains a primary endemic focus, the risk levels are stabilizing as environmental conditions approach the upper threshold of the virus's optimal ecological niche.
Beyond geographical broadening, the analysis identifies a critical temporal elongation of the transmission season. By the late century, the risk window in Western and Central Europe is projected to expand to five or six months, effectively converging with the seasonal profiles currently observed in Mediterranean latitudes. This shift transforms WNV from a transient summer threat into a prolonged annual challenge, with climatic suitability favoring viral circulation for approximately half the year across much of the continent.
The convergence of statistical and mechanistic evidence identifies climate change as the pivotal catalyst for the homogenization of WNV infection risk in Europe. By identifying specific lagged effects, the DLNM component provides empirical lead times for outbreaks, while the Index-P framework offers a process-based understanding of shifting ecological niches. These complementary findings underscore an urgent need for climate-informed early-warning systems and adaptive, region-specific vector control strategies to mitigate the virus's expanding reach.
How to cite: Angelou, A., Stilianakis, N., and Kioutsioukis, I.: Spatiotemporal Evolution of West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in Europe under Climate Change: A Dual-Methodological Approach, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-39, 2026.
The increase in temperatures over recent decades during the warm season in the Iberian Peninsula, and more generally across most continental mid-latitude regions, constitutes one of the clearest signals of climate change. This trend, together with an atmosphere capable of holding higher amounts of water vapor, reduces thermal comfort and has significant socio-economic impacts, particularly on outdoor occupational activities.
The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, which combines temperature, radiation, humidity, and wind, is a widely used metric for assessing occupational heat stress. Although the index can be measured directly using thermal sensors, such instruments are rarely used for continuous monitoring, and long-term observational records suitable for climate studies are scarce. However, several methodologies allow its estimation from indirect measurements of the aforementioned variables, though these approaches have not been extensively validated against long-term direct observations.
In this study, we present a validation of the WBGT calculation method proposed by Liljegren et al. (2008), using meteorological data from the AEMET station in Murcia. The validation compares an indirectly derived WBGT series with direct observations over a two-year period. Once validated, the method is applied to ERA5 reanalysis outputs to generate hourly WBGT data, which are subsequently post-processed to correct systematic errors. The resulting series reveals positive trends in the index, indicating an increase in occupational heat stress in recent decades.
How to cite: Huerta de la Asunción, M., Méndez García, Á., Jara López, E., and García Valero, J. A.: Assessing Long-Term Trends in Heat Stress in Murcia using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index over the ERA5 Period, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-92, 2026.
The establishment of strategies for the assessment of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) in the atmosphere aiming the definition and validation of their spatial, temporal and chemical transport patterns can be achieved by passive sampling of air. This has implications in the fields of meteorology, atmospheric chemistry and even climate change, and the resulting databases can further feed advanced modelling strategies for a more comprehensive knowledge. These pollutants are widespread and generated in a multitude of (mostly) anthropogenic processes and exhibit high carcinogenic potential and ecotoxicity due to their persistence in different matrices (air, soil, vegetation, water, biota).
In this study, five different chemical classes were analysed: brominated flame retardants (BFRs) polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs, in this case, only HCB), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and synthetic musks (SMs). The first four have been studied for some time (legacy chemicals), but SMs have only recently raised concern (emerging pollutants), due to their high consumption and release into the environment, important bioaccumulation and endocrine disrupting potential. Passive air samples were collected in 13 sites in an area covering the Region of Murcia and the Alicante province (southeast Spain), deploying polyurethane foam (PUF) disks sequentially for three months in the period of one year, comprising four sampling campaigns, one per season. PAHs were the prevalent family, with total concentrations between 0.3 and 21.6 ng/m3, followed by SMs (n.d. – 0.094 ng/m3), PCBs (4.3-110.2 pg/m3), HCB (5.9-33.1 pg/m3) and BFRs (0.04-18.4 pg/m3).
The main objective of this work was to assess the levels and the spatial and temporal patterns of these pollutants in the Levantine coast (south-east Iberian Peninsula). With the outcome produced, field data and advanced chemistry transport modelling will be combined in the future to produce a comprehensive overview of a region with still a considerable lack of information on these pollutants of concern.
Acknowledgements: This work was supported by national funds through FCT/MECI: LEPABE, UID/00511/2025 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/00511/2025) and UID/PRR/00511/2025 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/00511/2025) and ALiCE, LA/P/0045/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0045/2020).
How to cite: Ratola, N., Graziani, N., Castro-Jiménez, J., Ramos, S., Silva, J. A., and Jiménez-Guerrero, P.: Airborne legacy and emerging pollutants in the Murcia-Alicante region, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-116, 2026.
Accurate characterization of atmospheric pollution is essential for understanding its impacts on human health, ecosystems, and climate, as well as for supporting the development of effective air quality management strategies. Numerical atmosphere–chemistry models are powerful tools for studying pollutant dynamics and assessing mitigation measures. However, the quality of their predictions strongly depends on the accuracy of the emission inventories used as input.
Most available emission inventories are provided at relatively coarse spatial resolutions, limiting their ability to represent the detailed distribution of emission sources, particularly in heterogeneous urban and regional environments. To address this limitation, we developed a methodology to generate very high-resolution emission fields from low-resolution inventories using a range of geospatial datasets. Emissions from different sectors are spatially redistributed according to their physical origin, including road networks for traffic emissions, airport infrastructure for aviation, industrial facilities for industrial sources, and land-use or population density datasets for other anthropogenic activities. The methodology also incorporates sector-specific vertical allocation and temporal profiles, allowing emissions to vary realistically at hourly, weekly, and seasonal scales.
The methodology was evaluated over the Region of Murcia (southeastern Spain) by comparison with an independently developed high-resolution emission inventory. The results showed a good agreement between both datasets. Furthermore, air quality simulations driven by the old and new emissions were compared with observational data, demonstrating an improved representation of pollutant concentrations and confirming the potential of the proposed approach to enhance air quality modelling at regional scales.
How to cite: Cordero, A., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Montávez, J. P., Raluy-López, E., and Segado-Moreno, L. C.: Improving the Spatial Representation of Emission Sources for Regional Air Quality Modelling, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-90, 2026.
