From biodiversity data to desirable futures: Insights from the LTSER platform Kili-SES at Mt. Kilimanjaro

Understanding and sustaining biodiversity futures requires approaches that integrate ecological and social dimensions over the long term. The Kili-SES (Kilimanjaro social-ecological system) platform in Tanzania illustrates how Long-Term Social-Ecological Research (LTSER) can generate such integrative knowledge. Building on more than a decade of interdisciplinary collaboration, Kili-SES combines ecological monitoring, social research, and participatory scenario work within a shared conceptual framework inspired by the IPBES approach. A systematic plot design that captures both an elevation and a land-use gradient enables consistent long-term data collection and supports analyses linking biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and nature’s contributions to people (NCP). This framework allows the project to trace connections from biodiversity through NCP to human well-being and governance, while continually refining methods and insights through long-term engagement with people and place.

Recent work in Kili-SES has advanced this integration in several ways. A novel conceptual framework connects ecological network analysis with NCP supply, revealing how species interactions and human demand jointly shape the importance of biodiversity for NCP. Applying this framework to the extensive ecological and social datasets accumulated since the project’s inception allows us to identify keystone species for NCP provision and to anticipate how network changes may alter local livelihoods under future land-use or climate scenarios.

Scenario-building workshops conducted in the project allowed different local social actors to jointly identify key drivers of change and to co-develop contrasting future scenarios for the Kilimanjaro region. In the upcoming phase, these participatory dialogues will expand toward co-developing pathways for resilient and just human–wildlife coexistence—illustrated by a case study on fruit bats that integrates ecological, epidemiological, and social perspectives on both beneficial and detrimental NCP.

Together, these examples demonstrate how sustained, place-based, and interdisciplinary research can bridge ecological processes and societal aspirations. LTSER platforms like Kili-SES provide the scientific continuity and participatory grounding needed to envision and navigate toward sustainable biodiversity futures.