Towards Low Carbon Economy in ASEAN-5: Synergistic Role of Air Transport, Clean Energy and Green Innovation

Air transportation is increasingly shaping economic integration and trade in the ASEAN region. As connectivity and logistics networks expand, air freight activity has risen rapidly, driving development but also heightening environmental stress. Beyond its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, expanding aviation infrastructure and energy demand may indirectly affect ecosystems and biodiversity through land-use change, pollution, and climate-induced habitat loss. Simultaneously, ASEAN nations face growing populations, rising energy demand, and an accelerating transition toward clean energy and green technologies. Yet, empirical evidence on how air freight expansion influences environmental and biodiversity-related outcomes remains limited. This study addresses that gap by assessing the environmental effects of air freight activity in ASEAN economies from 2000 to 2021, focusing on emission patterns and their broader ecological implications. Grounded in the STIRPAT framework, the analysis captures proportional and non-linear effects of anthropogenic activities, incorporating determinants such as population growth, clean energy use, green technological innovation, and economic expansion. Heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence are evaluated using slope homogeneity and CD tests, confirming strong spatial and structural linkages among ASEAN countries. First- and second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests confirm long-run relationships. Short- and long-run dynamics are estimated using the Driscoll–Kraay Standard Error (DKSE) model, robust to cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation. Findings show that population growth, air freight transport, and economic expansion significantly degrade environmental quality—factors that indirectly heighten biodiversity risks through climate and resource pressures. Conversely, clean energy adoption and green technological innovation reduce emissions and generate biodiversity co-benefits over specific periods. Robustness checks using AMG, CCEMG, and PCSE estimators support these results. Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests reveal unidirectional causality from population growth, economic expansion, air freight, and innovation to emissions, underscoring the macro-environmental drivers influencing regional ecological integrity. Overall, the study offers policy-relevant insights into the environmental and biodiversity ramifications of air freight operations across ASEAN, emphasizing the need for integrated air transport, clean energy, and innovation strategies to advance low-carbon, biodiversity-positive development in the region.