The Biodiversity Nexus - interlinkages with Water, Energy, Food, Transportation, Health and Climate using the JUNIPER model: the case study of Greece

Biodiversity loss, resource stress, and climate impacts interact in ways that demand integrated and systems-based approaches. This study operationalises the “biodiversity nexus” by applying the JUNIPER system dynamics model to quantify interlinkages between Βiodiversity and the Water - Energy - Food - Transport - Health - Climate Nexus in Greece from 2000 -2019. By embedding species-level threats, ecosystem vulnerability, and cumulative pressures within a unified modelling environment, JUNIPER offers an actionable framework consistent with the IPBES Nexus Assessment for understanding how biophysical, socio-economic, and infrastructural drivers shape biodiversity outcomes.

The results reveal persistent biodiversity stress, reflected in gradually declining Red List Index and Red List of Ecosystems Index values. While changes are subtle, they indicate the slow but cumulative deterioration characteristic of ecological systems under multiple interacting pressures. Agriculture emerges as a major source of biodiversity risk, particularly livestock intensity, nutrient loading, pesticide use, and irrigation demand, which together link water scarcity, land-use pressures, and agricultural emissions. Agriculture accounts for ~90% of freshwater withdrawals, demonstrating how water - food linkages strongly mediate biodiversity vulnerability.

Energy and transport systems further contribute through air pollution, GHG emissions, and spatial infrastructure expansion. Despite progress toward renewables, continued fossil-fuel use and road-transport dependence generate sustained pressures on both biodiversity and public health. Climate change acts as a compounding stressor through rising temperatures and increased extremes. The Health module illustrates how environmental degradation undermines physical and mental wellbeing, reinforcing the interdependence of ecological integrity and human health.

By highlighting the slow biodiversity response relative to more dynamic indicators such as GHG emissions or Quality of Life, this study underscores the need for governance approaches that minimise trade-offs, harness synergies, and support systemic transformation. JUNIPER identifies leverage points, including sustainable irrigation, dietary shifts, decarbonisation pathways, and greener mobility, that can deliver co-benefits across systems. As such, it provides a concrete tool for advancing integrated nexus thinking and informing more coherent, equitable, and sustainable responses to interconnected crises.