A Framework for Integrating Biodiversity into the Environment–Climate–Conflict Nexus

Climate change and biodiversity loss are inextricably linked, and together they profoundly impact societal systems. The hazards they generate pose existential threats to human well-being, livelihoods, and security. Yet, their combined influence on the emergence and dynamics of armed conflict has received remarkably little attention.

While most existing research emphasizes climate impacts, we propose a novel conceptual framework that explicitly integrates biodiversity loss and Nature’s Contributions to People (NCPs) into the environment–climate–conflict nexus. Unlike earlier approaches that focus mainly on how climate affects conflict pathways, our framework shows how climate change, biodiversity loss, and societal dynamics jointly shape NCPs, which in turn influence conflict dynamics. We systematically review the quantitative literature on this nexus to identify patterns, linkages, and gaps.

Our findings show that the literature largely focuses on Africa and global-scale studies, whereas other biodiverse and conflict-prone regions, such as parts of Asia and Latin America, receive limited attention. Biodiversity is often addressed indirectly through variables such as soil erosion, vegetation, and land use, while climate variables dominate most analyses. When examined jointly, climate and biodiversity variables interact in complex, context-dependent ways, with biodiversity either mitigating or accelerating the risk of armed conflict. We further demonstrate that most NCPs can be linked to conflict pathways, with food and feed provisioning NCPs being particularly relevant. These patterns underscore the need for integrative and multidisciplinary approaches that connect climate change, biodiversity, and NCPs in conflict research.

By identifying NCPs that buffer or exacerbate conflict and mapping critical research gaps, this study provides a roadmap for leveraging ecosystem management, biodiversity restoration, and climate action to support conflict prevention and sustainable peacebuilding. Our framework highlights the importance of considering the coupled effects of environmental change on human security and offers guidance for future research aimed at understanding and addressing the multifaceted drivers of conflict in a rapidly changing world.