Assessing Heatwave Impacts on Mediterranean Forest NPP Using Satellite LST: Linking Ecosystem Productivity to EBVs and ECVs

Net primary production (NPP) is a key measure of ecosystem functioning and an important Essential Biodiversity Variable (EBV) class, reflecting the biomass produced by plants after accounting for autotrophic respiration. It serves as a vital indicator of carbon balance, ecosystem resilience, and overall forest health. Climate change, particularly the growing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, strongly influences NPP by altering temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture patterns. Understanding these impacts is critical for predicting ecosystem responses to extreme events and guiding sustainable forest management.

Mediterranean forests are especially significant due to their high biodiversity, unique species composition, carbon sequestration capacity, soil protection, and provision of essential ecosystem services, including climate regulation, water retention, and habitat for numerous species. Although these forests are naturally adapted to seasonal droughts, they remain vulnerable to compound climate extremes, such as simultaneous heat and dry conditions. This makes them ideal systems for studying the interactions between climate stressors and forest productivity, as well as the resilience conferred by functional and species diversity.

This study aims to quantify the effects of heatwaves on NPP in European Mediterranean forests during 2016–2025. Satellite-derived land surface temperature is used as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) to capture heat extremes, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index accounts for concurrent drought conditions. NPP will be estimated using a light-use efficiency model that integrates remote sensing and meteorological data, and validated against Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) flux tower measurements.

By identifying heatwave hotspots and evaluating their impacts on forest productivity, this study leverages EBV and ECV indicators to enhance understanding of ecosystem vulnerability and resilience. It provides a framework for monitoring Mediterranean forest responses to climate extremes, informs conservation and management strategies, and supports the sustainable maintenance of biodiversity, carbon storage, and other critical ecosystem services. These insights are essential for preparing Mediterranean forests for future climate variability and for promoting forest management practices that maximize ecosystem stability and resilience in the face of increasing environmental stressors.