Investigating species responses to environmental changes with RangeShifter: a process-based eco-evolutionary modelling platform.

Predicting the effects of anthropogenic global change on biodiversity requires models that capture the mechanisms underpinning species’ responses, such as demography, dispersal, evoluiton and species’ interactions. RangeShifter is a spatially explicit individual-based modelling platform that integrates these processes, making it well-suited for investigating biodiversity responses to multiple drivers and management strategies under changing environmental conditions. First published in 2014, it has been continuously developed over the years, including an R package interface since 2021.  

We illustrate three recent RangeShifter applications, highlighting some of its newly developed capability: 

• Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change: Using a Bayesian framework, demography-environment relationships, dispersal, and other demographic parameters were inferred from long-term, country-wide population monitoring in Switzerland. The inversely calibrated model was then used to attribute observed population changes to climate effects using counterfactual scenarios, providing insight into how demographic rates scale with environmental conditions and how climate change has shaped past population dynamics. 

• Potential translocation strategies for the European Bison and consequences for its genetic connectivity: Neutral genetic simulations in RangeShifter were used to evaluate functional connectivity between populations, beyond simple range-shifting potential, and testing for the role of current translocation efforts to maintain genetic diversity. This approach informs long-term conservation planning by identifying strategies to maintain self-sustaining spatially structured populations and ensure genetic health over time. 

• Impact of recurrent anthropogenic disturbance on the distribution and dynamics of genetic diversity: In a theoretical study, RangeShifter was used to explore how repeated and  frequent anthropogenic disturbances, such those occurring in agricultural landscapes, influence the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of genetic diversity. These simulations reveal genetic rescue and sink dynamics from undisturbed to disturbed habitats that shape maintenance and structure of genetic diversity depending on species’ life histories, disturbance and landscape characteristics. 

Together, these studies highlight RangeShifter’s versatility for addressing diverse empirical and theoretical questions and ecological scenarios, from species’ responses to environmental change and their genetic consequences to large-scale conservation strategies.