Interlinkages between Nature-based Solutions, Climate Variability and Grassland Conservation for Sustainable Community Livelihoods in African Savannas

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) address global challenges by mitigating climate change, conserving biodiversity and improving livelihoods. However, the potential of NbS to deliver these benefits in global south remains under-researched. This study investigated the linkages between Nature-based Solutions, climate variability and grassland conservation in Turkana County, Kenya between 1990-2023. Precipitation and temperature data were obtained from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and the TERRACLIMATE data portal. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data was gathered based on the CRU TS 4.07 dataset while data on grasslands were obtained from Land and Carbon Lab. Data on NbS was gathered through 10 Key Informant Interviews and eight Focus Group Discussions (FGD). There was a 7.43mm, 0.02 ºC and 0.95 ºC increase in precipitation, maximum temperatures (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) respectively.  There was a significant annual rise (0.0157) in SPEI values over the same period, an indication of reduced meteorological droughts. Correlation analysis revealed a significant relationship between precipitation and land under grasslands, (r= 0.625324, P= 0.001419) with precipitation explaining 36.2% of the size of land under grasslands. Regression analysis further established that SPEI explains about 24% of the total size of land under natural semi natural grasslands in the study area (r² = 0.24617, P= 0.009358). The major NbS interventions in this region are deferred grazing, rangeland reseeding, use of exclosures, rotational grazing, afforestation by indigenous and fruit trees, agroforestry, integrated pest management, kitchen gardens and water pans. Majority of the NbS are established by religious organizations, government and non-governmental organizations with major focus of enhancing livestock production, economic recovery, natural resource management, climate change adaptation, mitigation, building resilience, water and sanitation intervention, improved human health, nutrition, peace building and education. There was a 14.25km² annual decline in land under natural semi-natural grasslands and an annual increase of 14.89km² in land under other land uses. Correlation analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between the size of land under grasslands and the other land uses (r=-0.99971 P=0.0000). Land use changes through the establishment of NbS has contributed to reduced meteorological droughts and improved livelihoods in the region.