Climate-water-biosphere functions compared between three forests type scenarios

Forest systems are critical for climate mitigation due to their carbon uptake and storage. However, different forest-types show a varying capacity to provide carbon sequestration and other desirable ecosystem functions such as local freshwater provision and level of biosphere integrity.

To project these globally relevant processes for climate change depending on human forest management for the next decades, ecosystem modelling is crucial, because of the long rotation periods. Additionally, it can already now incorporate factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, while management options can be tested and discussed before global implementation.

We developed three scenarios of forest-based climate mitigation relying on simulations with the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL, which is mapping three levels of human intervention with the forest system:

1) Natural succession without human management.

2) Managed forests, where mainly one desired species is cultivated and protected so that faster growth-curves are achieved.

3) Woody biomass plantations, which provide maximum biomass harvest and very short rotation periods.

We compare these different forest types during the 21st century regarding their carbon sequestration potential, differences in soil moisture and runoff, and biosphere integrity. For the latter, we are utilizing the EcoRisk metric developed as an indicator for the planetary boundary for functional biosphere integrity.

Our preliminary analysis shows that on the global scale, unsurprisingly, the higher the human management level is, the higher the carbon sequestration potential can be.

As a next step, we will assess water provision and biosphere integrity levels, which will likely show a more fine-grained picture and will allow to differentiate better between locations.

All effects are expected to require at least a biome or even grid-scale resolution to fully show where which forest type and management intervention is most helpful in terms of climate-water-biosphere functions.