The grasslands they’re a-changin’: land-use trajectories and the value of low-intensity agriculture

European grasslands are among the world’s most species-rich ecosystems, yet they are increasingly shaped by two contrasting land-use trajectories: agricultural intensification and abandonment. Using 161,070 vegetation plots from the European Vegetation Archive covering all EU Member States and the United Kingdom, we quantified how landscape, environmental conditions, and nitrogen inputs jointly determine grassland plant diversity at continental scale. Applying a spatially explicit Bayesian modelling framework, we show that surrounding land use exerts a strong and consistent influence on local diversity. Landscapes dominated by low-intensity grasslands and heterogeneous farmland support approximately 8% higher plant diversity, whereas arable, urban, or woody-encroached landscapes reduce it. Diversity peaks at mid-elevation, in mildly acidic soils, and under moderately wet conditions, reflecting long-recognised gradients and providing a consistent, continent-wide estimate of their magnitude. Nitrogen inputs have a pronounced negative effect, with enrichment favouring nitrophilous, fast-growing species that outcompete slower-growing taxa. Spatial projection further indicates that, undercurrent nitrogen loads, grassland diversity is markedly reduced relative to a zero-input baseline, with national-level losses exceeding 10% in all EU Member States and reaching 29% in the Netherlands. These results highlight the considerable potential for biodiversity recovery if nitrogen inputs were reduced, particularly in intensively farmed regions. To complement this field-based analysis, we examined contemporary land-cover transitions using remotely sensed data from the Google-Dynamic-World dataset. Time-series classification allowed us to quantify the dominant processes driving ongoing grassland change across Europe. We found that succession linked to land abandonment, compounded by improving climatic conditions at higher elevations, is the prevailing process in montane and subalpine regions, where grasslands are increasingly transitioning towards woody vegetation. By contrast, intensification, conversion to cropland, and soil sealing are the most common pathways in flat, accessible lowlands, reflecting ongoing pressures from agriculture, infrastructure expansion, and urban development. This dual-pattern underscores how socio-economic drivers, accessibility, and biophysical gradients jointly structure grassland dynamics. Together, these two complementary lines of evidence show that sustaining Europe’s grassland biodiversity requires coordinated action across scales. Effective conservation and restoration will depend on integrating field-level mitigation with landscape-scale policies that internalise agricultural externalities and balance productivity, abandonment, and recovery within multifunctional rural systems.