Envisioning future forest landscape: local perspectives reveal barriers and pathways to biodiversity-centred tree-based restoration in Madagascar

Forest landscape restoration in Madagascar requires approaches that reconcile global biodiversity goals with local demands. Yet most restoration efforts fail to meet these aims: by prioritising fast-growing exotic species, they may support short-term livelihood needs but simultaneously risk further eroding the country’s unique endemic biodiversity. To explore how more biodiversity-centred futures could be envisioned locally, we applied a scenario-based approach using participatory mapping across three regions representing Madagascar’s major forest biomes. Through 45 participatory mapping sessions with 450 households, local communities reconstructed past land-use change, assessed current landscape conditions, and developed two 10-year scenarios: a business-as-usual trajectory and a desirable future grounded in their own values, needs, and knowledge systems.

Our results show how local perceptions of key drivers—particularly land-use conflict arising from agricultural expansion and land scarcity, insecure land tenure, and the need for tangible short- to mid-term benefits—shape current constraints on native-tree restoration. Under business-as-usual, communities anticipate a continued decline of natural forests and their conversion into degraded land, alongside an increasing reliance on exotic plantations for quicker returns. By contrast, local communities’ desirable futures emphasise safeguarding and restoring remaining natural forests, improving livelihoods through diversified land uses, agroforestry, and woodlots, and strengthening local land rights and cultural connections to the landscape. These community-generated scenarios highlight the types of institutional reforms, livelihood incentives, and ecological safeguards required for meaningful native-tree restoration. They point to the importance of recognising customary land tenure arrangements, ensuring secure and equitable access to land, and addressing the underlying drivers of land degradation through improved agricultural support and diversified income opportunities.

Our study demonstrates how participatory engagement in envisioning future landscapes can inform multi-scalar scenario development and reveal actionable pathways for policy and governance. It highlights the need to integrate customary institutions, tenure security, and livelihood strategies into national restoration planning to enable community-led native-tree restoration and to advance more biodiversity-centred restoration approaches.