Bending the degradation curve: co-developing participatory pathways for balanced nature–people futures in tropical mountains

Tropical mountain systems are biodiversity hotspots that sustain billions of people who either live in mountains or downstream through the production and flow of vital ecosystem services, yet they face escalating pressures from population growth, deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. Reversing these trends requires transformative, inclusive, and place-based approaches that bridge biodiversity conservation, ecosystem restoration, and human well-being. Participatory narratives of change, grounded in historical timelines and plausible futures, play a crucial role in shaping such transformations, helping communities reflect on past changes and envision more sustainable pathways forward. This study applies KESHO – a participatory land use scenario approach – to envision future scenarios and co-develop pathways that bend the degradation curve and move toward biodiversity-positive and socially just futures in Nan province, northern Thailand, a region where forests have been extensively converted to cash crops. Using land use as a lens enables us to integrate people’s choices on what land is used for and understand how this responds to external drivers that shape social-ecological systems. Drawing on diverse social memories, local participants co-constructed a historical timeline extending back some 50 years, which helped identify the timing of land use change and the drivers behind this. Participants then co-developed plausible land use futures, revealing both desirable and undesirable potential in the short term (2030/2037) and long term (2065). The scenarios reveal trade-offs between agricultural expansion and ecosystem health, but also opportunities for regeneration, equity, and coexistence between nature and people. To achieve a balanced and resilient future, pathways should prioritise empowering local actors, restoring and protecting nature, promoting a green economy, supporting innovation-driven development, and strengthening governance. Our findings show how participatory scenario planning can integrate science and local knowledge to foster collective learning and actionable transformation toward resilient, balanced, and biodiversity-positive tropical mountain systems. KESHO offers a flexible framework for participatory scenario planning in landscapes facing intertwined social-ecological challenges, enabling dialogue among diverse participants and supporting inclusive, long-term landscape management.