Global agreements have set ambitious targets to stem the decline of biodiversity. However, the pathway from agreement to action is still unclear and often neglects forward-looking models to facilitate effective and efficient strategies to reach global and national targets. Reaching desired biodiversity outcomes at national and global scales will require predictive models to assess progress towards targets, guide actions, provide cost-effective solutions, and integrate local and national efforts that scale up to attain cohesive global outcomes.

In this session, we aim to highlight case studies that have applied innovative predictive models to facilitate the transformation of conservation ambitions into effective actions, with an emphasis on examples with demonstrated policy relevance. Examples might include population models that suggest the best mitigation methods to prevent the extinction of endangered species, models supporting corridor placement between protected areas, national to global models that indicate priority regions and species for conservation under varying policy-relevant scenarios, and novel cutting-edge mechanistic models such as supporting adaptive evolution to environmental change.

Overall, our session will demonstrate the value of predictive models in facilitating actions that best support biodiversity protection and facilitate discussions among policymakers, conservation practitioners, scientists, and modelers. The session would be supported by the GEO BON EcoCode collaborative. We foresee the development of a high-profile journal article summarizing and synthesizing case studies and a companion white paper for the UNEP for distribution to GBF parties.