Uncertainties in geological 3D-Modells: A Challenge in the nucleare waste repository site selection procedure
Main Session Organizers:
Ute Maurer-Rurack,
Maik Schilling
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Deputy Session Organizer:
Maik Schilling
During the site selection procedure for a deep geological repository for the disposal of high-radioactive waste (HLW) the 3D models are playing an increasingly important role. Only with the support of 3D-models it is possible to obtain a holistic picture of the geological subsurface. Experiences gained from dealing with uncertainties in other countries will be shown.
I. Introduction (5 min.)
II. Presentations (each 15+5 min., 20 min. total):
1) Ingelise Møller, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Rasmus Bødker Madsen and Peter Sandersen: “Uncertainties in geological modelling – the GEUS perspective“, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Aarhus, Denmark
The presentation focused on the experience over 20 years in Denmark with the description and quantification of uncertainties in geological models. It is linked to published work on uncertainties of geological models developed mainly for hydrogeological purposes. The models are primarily based on lithological information from boreholes and dense near-surface geophysical data. The importance of understanding the uncertainties embedded in the entire modelling workflow from the conceptual understanding, the data uncertainties, the modelling approach to the geological modelling itself will be presented.
2) Arto Laikari and Pirjo Hellä : “Management of the monitoring data acquisition uncertainties within deep geological repositories”, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland Ltd.
The presentation shows that digital twins and 3D models can be used to identify and mitigate risks, ensuring the repository's long-term safety and enhance stakeholder trust about the repository's status and safety measures. The Monitoring Equipment and Data Treatment for Safe Repository Operation and Staged Closure (MODATS) work package of the European Joint Programme on Radioactive Waste Management (EURAD) focused on the monitoring during the operational phase of repository programmes. Its aim is to gain understanding on the processes affecting the barrier and host rock performance and evolution, and to build further confidence in the long-term safety case. The project was based on the six deep geological disposal test cases from Europe. A workflow for data handling from acquisition to decision support was proposed. Some of these experiments have been running for decades and within this time frame data science has evolved widely providing many new methods and tools.
3) Valentina Zampetti, Michele Claps and Alex Papafotiou:: „Performance assessment for site selection in Switzerland: Treatment of uncertainty in the model abstraction chain“, NAGRA, Schwitzerland
Nagra has implemented a modelling workflow for the assessment of performance of site-specific repository projects in support of the site selection and the general license application for a deep geological repository in Switzerland. The workflow integrates modelling tools for total system and component analyses embedded in a comprehensive uncertainty management framework. The assessment is performed in deterministic as well as probabilistic fashion integrated with an indicator-based approach that allows the consistent, traceable, and verifiable comparison of the candidate sites.
III. Roundtable - Discussion (15 min)
10:00–10:05
Introduction
10:05–10:25
Møller et al.
10:45–11:05
V. Zampetti
11:05–11:20
Roundtable - Discussion
Additional speakers
- Ingelise Møller, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Denmark
- Valentina Zampetti, Nagra, Switzerland