Since the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s National Ignition Lab’s supposed breakthrough in fusion energy utilization in December 2022, the promises of nuclear fusion as being a clean, cheap, reliable, and sustainable source of energy that can help mitigate climate change without the drawbacks of nuclear fission (i.e., most notably safety issues and highly active radioactive wastes), have been reiterated by media and policymakers alike (Wimmers et al. 2025). However, despite these claims, the establishment of nuclear fusion as an energy generation technology remains decades away as substantial technological challenges are yet to be overcome (Grünwald 2024). Historical institutional large-scale development projects like the ITER are being increasingly challenged by new entrants who, while each following different fusion reactor approaches, promise to have their first prototypes operational within the next decade (Wimmers et al. 2025). To determine whether these concepts might be feasible for commercialization in the coming years, a detailed assessment of their progress is necessary. Thus, this paper aims to analyze the techno-historic readiness levels of different reactor concepts based on the innovation chain proposed by Grubb (2004). We select several different new ventures, clustered by their varying technological approaches (albeit limiting the assessment to inertial and magnetic confinement fusion concepts), and determine their current development status on the innovation chain. We find that while most projects have moved on from the first stage, “Basic Research,” many remain several years away from reaching the critical level of “Demonstration,” in which a functioning device is shown to run reliably and consistently. In line with other literature (e.g., Takeda et al. (2023) or Lesch & (2024)), we conclude that currently projected development time frames of a few years until the provision of functioning prototypes is unrealistic and not to be expected from a techno-economic perspective. Moving along, potential funding should focus on a limited number of technologies so that future stages of commercialization and market diffusion that are, as of today, not to be expected in the coming decades, might be achievable in the future, and fusion avoids the “technology valley of death” (Grubb, Hourcade, and Neuhoff 2014).
References
Grubb, Michael. 2004. “Technology Innovation and Climate Change Policy: An Overview of Issues and Options.” Keio Economic Studies 41 (January):103–32.
Grubb, Michael, Jean-Charles Hourcade, and Karsten Neuhoff. 2014. Planetary Economics – Energy, Climate Change and the Three Domains of Sustainable Development. London, UK: Routledge.
Grünwald, Reinhard. 2024. “Auf dem Weg zu einem möglichen Kernfusionskraftwerk. Wissenslücken und Forschungsbedarfe aus Sicht der Technikfolgenabschätzung.” PDF. Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (TAB). https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000177720.
Kleidon, Axel, and Harald Lesch. 2024. “Kann Kernenergie zur Energiewende beitragen?: Zukünftige Energieversorgung in Deutschland.” Physik in unserer Zeit, July, piuz.202401718. https://doi.org/10.1002/piuz.202401718.
Takeda, Shutaro, Alexander Ryota Keeley, and Shunsuke Managi. 2023. “How Many Years Away Is Fusion Energy? A Review.” Journal of Fusion Energy 42 (1): 16, s10894-023-00361-z. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10894-023-00361-z.
Wimmers, Alexander, Fanny Böse, Alexander Buschner, Claudia Kemfert, Johanna Krauss, Julia Rechlitz, Björn Steigerwald, and Christian Von Hirschhausen. 2025. “Kommerzielle Energieerzeugung Mit Kernfusion Nicht Absehbar – Anwendungsforschung Entwickelt Sich Dynamisch.” DIW Wochenbericht 92:S. 195201. https://doi.org/10.18723/DIW_WB:2025-13-1.