Oral Programme CL52

Climate Prediction: Models, Diagnostics, and Uncertainty Analysis
Convener: C. E. Forest 
Co-Conveners: J. C. Hargreaves , Collins , V. Lucarini , and Carter 
Session DetailsPoster Programme


Thursday, 23 Apr 2009
Room: 28
Chairperson: V. Lucarini
Model Diagnostics

08:30–08:45
EGU2009-2065
Energy balance and meridional energy transport in PCMDI/CMIP3 GCMs
V. Lucarini and F. Ragone
08:45–09:00
EGU2009-13533
Dealing with Uncertainties in Estimates of the Ocean Circulation (solicited)
D Stammer
09:00–09:15
EGU2009-6827
Co-variability of spring and autumn precipitation over France: Evidence of missing processes in current climate models?
M. Hirschi and S. I. Seneviratne
09:15–09:30
EGU2009-476
Energetics responses to increases in greenhouse gas concentration
D. Hernandez-Deckers and J. S. von Storch
09:30–09:45
EGU2009-11997
Past-performance-based model selection using a "mosaic" of models
C. Reifen and R. Toumi
09:45–10:00
EGU2009-2089
Investigation of relations between inter-model similarities for present and projected future mean climate
M. ABE, H. SHIOGAMA, J. HARGREAVES, J. ANNAN, T. NOZAWA, and S. EMORI
COFFEE BREAK
Chairperson: C. Forest
Probablistic Estimation, Detection and Attribution

10:30–10:45
EGU2009-2930
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. S. Drijfhout, A. P. van Ulden, R. Haarsma, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger, and H. Dijkstra
10:45–11:00
EGU2009-8220
The EU 2° target and the new ENSEMBLES scenario: First results
H. Huebener and the ENSEMBLES RT2A partners Team
11:00–11:15
EGU2009-13330
On the detectability of a regional-scale anthropogenic climate change in Northern Europe
J. Bhend and H. von Storch
11:15–11:30
EGU2009-3181
Climate change detection based on smooth temporal patterns
A. RIBES, S. PLANTON, and J.M. AZAÏS
11:30–11:45
EGU2009-12956
Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change by ensemble dressing
C. Schoelzel and A. Hense
11:45–12:00
EGU2009-11265
Effects of climate uncertainties on welfare optimal investment streams into mitigation technologies
H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, and A. Lorenz
LUNCH BREAK
Chairperson: T. Carter
Uncertainties in Projections and Impacts Assessments

13:30–13:45
EGU2009-5963
Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (solicited)
R. Prinn
13:45–14:00
EGU2009-1219
Sensitivity of climate change projections to uncertainties in the estimates of observed changes in deep-ocean heat content.
A. Sokolov, C Forest, and P Stone
14:00–14:15
EGU2009-1206
From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: A case study of water resource management in the Sout West of England
A. Lopez, F Fung, and M New
14:15–14:30
EGU2009-8122
Probabilistic projections of climate change effects on sub-arctic palsa mires using the response surface approach
S. Fronzek and T.R. Carter
14:30–14:45
EGU2009-7229
Climate Change and Projected Impacts in Agriculture: an Example on Mediterranean Crops
R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, and M. Bindi
14:45–15:00
EGU2009-5896
Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation systems
N. M. Urban and K. Keller