Find the EGU on

Tag your tweets with #EGU17

CL3.01 Media

Climate Predictions - from monthly, seasonal to decadal time scales
Convener: Stéphane Vannitsem  | Co-Conveners: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Wolfgang Müller , Mark Liniger 
 / Fri, 28 Apr, 13:30–17:00 / Room 0.14
 / Attendance Fri, 28 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Hall X5
Add this session to your Personal programme

Forecasts of climate at decadal, seasonal, and monthly time scales will be discussed in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems. Further topics include

* forecast quality assessment in various climate components
* physical concepts and processes at the base of predictability
* initial drift analysis and bias adjustment
* role of anthropogenic climate change
* ensemble forecast generation and initialization
* post processing of climate forecasts
* approaches to address model uncertainty
* statistical and dynamical downscaling
* demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation
* the use of multi-scale data assimilation approaches to reduce initial shocks

additionally, we discuss the topics in the context of alternative climate model approaches and ensemble methods, super modeling approaches or parametrisation.

A special focus will be put on results from the CMIP5 decadal prediction experiments and projects (e.g. CHFP, NACLIM, SPECS and EUPORIAS).