Oral Programme UC2

UC2

Climate modelling, climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century
Convener: C. Appenzeller  | Co-Conveners: C.M. Goodess , R.E. Benestad 
Oral Programme
 / Mon, 13 Sep, 16:30–18:30  / Room AudiMax (F30)
 / Wed, 15 Sep, 08:30–13:00  / Room AudiMax (F30)
 / Thu, 16 Sep, 14:00–19:00  / Room AudiMax (F30)
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Tue, 14 Sep, 18:30–19:30  / Poster Area P3

Monday, 13 September 2010
Room AudiMax (F30)
Monthly to Seasonal Prediction

16:30–16:45
EMS2010-289
Autumn-time response of the ocean-atmospheric system to interannual changes in Arctic sea-ice extent
Y. J. Orsolini, R. Senan, R. E. Benestad, A. Melsom, and M. A. Balmaseda
16:45–17:00
EMS2010-746
ENSO-Driven Predictability of Tropical Dry Autumns Using the Seasonal ENSEMBLES Multimodel
R. Manzanas, J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Cofiño, and M.D. Frías
17:00–17:15
EMS2010-79
Seasonal potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice in the ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 simulations
M. Chevallier and D. Salas-Melia
17:15–17:30
EMS2010-373
Evolution of the Canadian regional ensemble prediction system
R. Frenette, M. Charron, X. Li, N. Gagnon, C. Lavaysse, S. Belair, M. Carrera, P. Yau, and G. Candille
17:30–17:45 EMS2010-349
Analysis of MJO forecast errors in a seamless system (withdrawn)
P. Xavier and A. Shelly
17:45–18:00
EMS2010-536
Assessing two operational systems for monthly and seasonal climatic anomalies forecast in Italy.
M. Pasqui, V. Pavan, S. Quaresima, J. Primicerio, C. Cacciamani, B. Gozzini, and L. Perini
18:00–18:15
EMS2010-397
Dynamic-enforced Statistical Downscaling of Global Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation for Regional Hydrological Applications
Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, A. Givati, W. Wu, G. Descombes, M. Ge, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin
18:15–18:30
EMS2010-326
Can monthly to seasonal precipitation forecasts be useful for hydro-power production planning in french Guyana ?
L. Dubus, J. Najac, and J. Dessagne

Wednesday, 15 September 2010
Room AudiMax (F30)
Climate Change Impacts

08:30–08:45
EMS2010-565
Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves
E.M. Fischer and C. Schär
08:45–09:00
EMS2010-52
Using bias-adjustment to improve the use of high-resolution climate model output
S. Corney, G. Holz, J. Bennett, M. Grose, C.J. White, S. Gaynor, and N.L. Bindoff
09:00–09:15
EMS2010-146
Fire Weather Index : from high resolution climatology to Climate change impact study
E. Cloppet and M. Regimbeau
09:15–09:30
EMS2010-681
Water deficit risk in Central Europe in the middle of the 21st century
J. Wibig
09:30–09:45
EMS2010-722
Simulation of Annual Snowfall over Colorado using a High Resolution Mesoscale Model and some Impacts of Climate Change using the Pseudo Climate Simulation Method
R. Rasmussen and V. Grubisic
09:45–10:00
EMS2010-199
Seasonal changes in the regional hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes in an aggressive mitigation scenario compared to SRES A1B
H. Huebener, I. Höschel, J. Körber, M. Sanderson, T.C. Johns, J.-F. Royer, D. Salas y Melia, E. Roeckner, M. Giorgetta, and E. Manzini
10:00–10:15
EMS2010-602
Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator
M. Hirschi, S. Stöckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, M. W. Rotach, P. Calanca, and J. Samietz
10:15–10:30
EMS2010-432
Assessment of Future Storm Losses in Germany: Probabilistic Extension of the Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Approach
K. Born, M.K. Karremann, P. Ludwig, and J. Pinto
Coffee Break
Climate Scenarios and Long-Term Changes

11:00–11:15
EMS2010-642
Aerosol emissions and earth radiation balance in transient GCM simulations
D. Folini and M. Wild
11:15–11:30
EMS2010-133
The impact of doubled CO2 on winter ENSO teleconnections
I. Herceg Bulić, Č. Branković, and F. Kucharski
11:30–11:45
EMS2010-269
Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory
X. Zhu, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, and Z. Liu
11:45–12:00
EMS2010-307
The West African Monsoon in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM
S. Kothe and B. Ahrens
12:00–12:15
EMS2010-327
Evaluation of the Indian monsoon generated by four regional climate models during the period 1981-2000
P. Lucas-Picher, J. Christensen, P. Kumar, F. Saeed, S. Asharaf, A. Wiltshire, B. Ahrens, and S. Hagemann
12:15–12:30
EMS2010-249
Regional climate projections of trends and variability in the Indian summer monsoon
A. Dobler and B. Ahrens
12:30–12:45
EMS2010-428
The effects of climate change on the number of cold spells in the Alps
C. Cassardo, M. Galli, S. M. Oh, and S. K. Park
12:45–13:00
EMS2010-99
Elevation Gradients of 21st Century European Climate Change
S. Kotlarski, D. Lüthi, P. Pall, and C. Schär

Thursday, 16 September 2010
Room AudiMax (F30)
14:00–14:30
EMS2010-246
Risks of model weighting in multi-model climate projections - lessons learnt from seasonal forecasting (solicited)
A.P. Weigel, R. Knutti, M.A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller
14:30–14:45
EMS2010-786
High Resolution Regional Climate Modelling - Lessons Learned from EC FP6 Project CECILIA
T. Halenka, M. Belda, and J. Miksovsky
14:45–15:00
EMS2010-607
Evaluation of the regional climate model REMO over several CORDEX domains throughout the globe
A. Elizalde, A. Haensler, P. Kumar, R. Podzun, D. Rechid, A. Remedio, F. Saeed, K. Sieck, C. Teichmann, and C. Wilhelm and the REMO
15:00–15:15
EMS2010-209
Regional Climate Simulation (1989-2009) with WRF in the CORDEX-Europe Domain
J. Chu, K Warrach-Sagi, V Wulfmeyer, T Schwitalla, and H Bauer
15:15–15:30
EMS2010-299
Dynamical downscaling of the ERA-40 reanalysis and ARPEGE GCM with the WRF regional climate model in complex terrain in Norway - comparison with ENSEMBLES
U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik, and A. Sorteberg
15:30–15:45
EMS2010-558
Calculation of Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Switzerland
A. M. Fischer, A. P. Weigel, M. A. Liniger, C. Buser, and C. Appenzeller
15:45–16:00
EMS2010-60
The future climate characteristics of the Carpathian Basin based on a regional climate model mini-ensemble
G. Szépszó, J. Bartholy, G. Csima, A. Horányi, A. Hunyady, I. Krüzselyi, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, P. Szabó, and Cs. Torma
Poster Session & Coffee Break
17:00–17:15
EMS2010-63
Downscaling Precipitation Extremes: Correction of Analog Models through PDF Predictions
R.E. Benestad
17:15–17:30
EMS2010-576
Statistical downscaling assessments of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area
E. Hertig, J. Jacobeit, and S. Fernandez-Montes
17:30–17:45
EMS2010-447
Forcing the statistical regionalization method WETTREG with large scale models of different resolution: A sensitivity study
A. Spekat, S. Baumgart, F. Kreienkamp, and W. Enke
17:45–18:00
EMS2010-13
Very high resolution climate modelling of extremes
E. Kendon and K. Williams
18:00–18:15
EMS2010-259
Downscaling of extreme precipitation events under climate change conditions
M. Hofstätter, C. Matulla, and J. Wang
18:15–18:30
EMS2010-2
The effect of large-scale nudging on climate indices in the Regional Climate Model CCLM
M. Demuzere, I. Anders, E. Jaeger, E. Brisson, and N.P.M. van Lipzig
18:30–18:45
EMS2010-17
Strengthening regional climate change projections of rainfall changes through fine-scale dynamical downscaling modelling and analyses of climate drivers at all scales
M.R. Grose, S Corney, J Bennett, C.J. White, G.K. Holz, and N.L. Bindoff
18:45–19:00
EMS2010-735
Validation of autocorrelations and higher-order statistical moments of surface temperature simulated by statistical downscaling and regional climate models on a dense grid over central Europe
R. Huth, J. Mikšovský, J.C. Moliba, P. Štěpánek, and Z. Chládová