Oral Programme UC2
Climate modelling, climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to centuryConvener: C. Appenzeller
Co-Conveners: C.M. Goodess
| Session Details | Poster Programme |
Session to Personal Programme
Monday, 13 Sep 2010 Room: AudiMax (F30) | |
| Monthly to Seasonal Prediction | |
16:30–16:45
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EMS2010-289
Y. J. Orsolini, R. Senan, R. E. Benestad, A. Melsom, and M. A. Balmaseda Autumn-time response of the ocean-atmospheric system to interannual changes in Arctic sea-ice extent |
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16:45–17:00
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EMS2010-746
R. Manzanas, J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Cofiño, and M.D. Frías ENSO-Driven Predictability of Tropical Dry Autumns Using the Seasonal ENSEMBLES Multimodel |
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17:00–17:15
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EMS2010-79
M. Chevallier and D. Salas-Melia Seasonal potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice in the ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 simulations |
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17:15–17:30
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EMS2010-373
R. Frenette, M. Charron, X. Li, N. Gagnon, C. Lavaysse, S. Belair, M. Carrera, P. Yau, and G. Candille Evolution of the Canadian regional ensemble prediction system |
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17:30–17:45
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EMS2010-349
P. Xavier and A. Shelly Analysis of MJO forecast errors in a seamless system (withdrawn) |
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17:45–18:00
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EMS2010-536
M. Pasqui, V. Pavan, S. Quaresima, J. Primicerio, C. Cacciamani, B. Gozzini, and L. Perini Assessing two operational systems for monthly and seasonal climatic anomalies forecast in Italy. |
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18:00–18:15
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EMS2010-397
Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, A. Givati, W. Wu, G. Descombes, M. Ge, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin Dynamic-enforced Statistical Downscaling of Global Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation for Regional Hydrological Applications |
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18:15–18:30
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EMS2010-326
L. Dubus, J. Najac, and J. Dessagne Can monthly to seasonal precipitation forecasts be useful for hydro-power production planning in french Guyana ? |
Wednesday, 15 Sep 2010 Room: AudiMax (F30) | |
| Climate Change Impacts | |
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08:30–08:45
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EMS2010-565
E.M. Fischer and C. Schär Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves |
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08:45–09:00
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EMS2010-52
S. Corney, G. Holz, J. Bennett, M. Grose, C.J. White, S. Gaynor, and N.L. Bindoff Using bias-adjustment to improve the use of high-resolution climate model output |
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09:00–09:15
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EMS2010-146
E. Cloppet and M. Regimbeau Fire Weather Index : from high resolution climatology to Climate change impact study |
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09:15–09:30
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EMS2010-681
J. Wibig Water deficit risk in Central Europe in the middle of the 21st century |
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09:30–09:45
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EMS2010-722
R. Rasmussen and V. Grubisic Simulation of Annual Snowfall over Colorado using a High Resolution Mesoscale Model and some Impacts of Climate Change using the Pseudo Climate Simulation Method |
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09:45–10:00
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EMS2010-199
H. Huebener, I. Höschel, J. Körber, M. Sanderson, T.C. Johns, J.-F. Royer, D. Salas y Melia, E. Roeckner, M. Giorgetta, and E. Manzini Seasonal changes in the regional hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes in an aggressive mitigation scenario compared to SRES A1B |
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10:00–10:15
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EMS2010-602
M. Hirschi, S. Stöckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, M. W. Rotach, P. Calanca, and J. Samietz Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator |
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10:15–10:30
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EMS2010-432
K. Born, M.K. Karremann, P. Ludwig, and J. Pinto Assessment of Future Storm Losses in Germany: Probabilistic Extension of the Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Approach |
Coffee Break | |
| Climate Scenarios and Long-Term Changes | |
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11:00–11:15
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EMS2010-642
D. Folini and M. Wild Aerosol emissions and earth radiation balance in transient GCM simulations |
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11:15–11:30
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EMS2010-133
I. Herceg Bulić, Č. Branković, and F. Kucharski The impact of doubled CO2 on winter ENSO teleconnections |
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11:30–11:45
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EMS2010-269
X. Zhu, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, and Z. Liu Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory |
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11:45–12:00
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EMS2010-307
S. Kothe and B. Ahrens The West African Monsoon in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM |
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12:00–12:15
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EMS2010-327
P. Lucas-Picher, J. Christensen, P. Kumar, F. Saeed, S. Asharaf, A. Wiltshire, B. Ahrens, and S. Hagemann Evaluation of the Indian monsoon generated by four regional climate models during the period 1981-2000 |
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12:15–12:30
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EMS2010-249
A. Dobler and B. Ahrens Regional climate projections of trends and variability in the Indian summer monsoon |
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12:30–12:45
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EMS2010-428
C. Cassardo, M. Galli, S. M. Oh, and S. K. Park The effects of climate change on the number of cold spells in the Alps |
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12:45–13:00
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EMS2010-99
S. Kotlarski, D. Lüthi, P. Pall, and C. Schär Elevation Gradients of 21st Century European Climate Change |
Thursday, 16 Sep 2010 Room: AudiMax (F30) | |
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14:00–14:30
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EMS2010-246
A.P. Weigel, R. Knutti, M.A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller Risks of model weighting in multi-model climate projections - lessons learnt from seasonal forecasting (solicited) |
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14:30–14:45
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EMS2010-786
T. Halenka, M. Belda, and J. Miksovsky High Resolution Regional Climate Modelling - Lessons Learned from EC FP6 Project CECILIA |
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14:45–15:00
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EMS2010-607
A. Elizalde, A. Haensler, P. Kumar, R. Podzun, D. Rechid, A. Remedio, F. Saeed, K. Sieck, C. Teichmann, C. Wilhelm and the REMO Team Evaluation of the regional climate model REMO over several CORDEX domains throughout the globe |
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15:00–15:15
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EMS2010-209
J. Chu, K Warrach-Sagi, V Wulfmeyer, T Schwitalla, and H Bauer Regional Climate Simulation (1989-2009) with WRF in the CORDEX-Europe Domain |
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15:15–15:30
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EMS2010-299
U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik, and A. Sorteberg Dynamical downscaling of the ERA-40 reanalysis and ARPEGE GCM with the WRF regional climate model in complex terrain in Norway - comparison with ENSEMBLES |
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15:30–15:45
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EMS2010-558
A. M. Fischer, A. P. Weigel, M. A. Liniger, C. Buser, and C. Appenzeller Calculation of Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Switzerland |
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15:45–16:00
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EMS2010-60
G. Szépszó, J. Bartholy, G. Csima, A. Horányi, A. Hunyady, I. Krüzselyi, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, P. Szabó, and Cs. Torma The future climate characteristics of the Carpathian Basin based on a regional climate model mini-ensemble |
Poster Session & Coffee Break | |
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17:00–17:15
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EMS2010-63
R.E. Benestad Downscaling Precipitation Extremes: Correction of Analog Models through PDF Predictions |
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17:15–17:30
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EMS2010-576
E. Hertig, J. Jacobeit, and S. Fernandez-Montes Statistical downscaling assessments of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area |
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17:30–17:45
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EMS2010-447
A. Spekat, S. Baumgart, F. Kreienkamp, and W. Enke Forcing the statistical regionalization method WETTREG with large scale models of different resolution: A sensitivity study |
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17:45–18:00
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EMS2010-13
E. Kendon and K. Williams Very high resolution climate modelling of extremes |
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18:00–18:15
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EMS2010-259
M. Hofstätter, C. Matulla, and J. Wang Downscaling of extreme precipitation events under climate change conditions |
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18:15–18:30
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EMS2010-2
M. Demuzere, I. Anders, E. Jaeger, E. Brisson, and N.P.M. van Lipzig The effect of large-scale nudging on climate indices in the Regional Climate Model CCLM |
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18:30–18:45
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EMS2010-17
M.R. Grose, S Corney, J Bennett, C.J. White, G.K. Holz, and N.L. Bindoff Strengthening regional climate change projections of rainfall changes through fine-scale dynamical downscaling modelling and analyses of climate drivers at all scales |
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18:45–19:00
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EMS2010-735
R. Huth, J. Mikšovský, J.C. Moliba, P. Štěpánek, and Z. Chládová Validation of autocorrelations and higher-order statistical moments of surface temperature simulated by statistical downscaling and regional climate models on a dense grid over central Europe |
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